A New Way To Look At Stolen Bases

Stealing a base at the Major League level is one of the hardest things to do in all of sports. In fact here is a video by Sports Science on how it breaks down: Base Stealing .  Stealing bases definitely has its pros because you get the extra base, but some people do not look at it in the right way. Think of a steal of second as turning a single into a double, and a steal of third as turning a double into a triple.

So players who steal a lot of bases often do not have such a high OPS+ mainly because of slugging percentages. Players who steal bases are historically known to be singles hitters. For example Juan Pierre is a career 84 OPS+ hitter, but has an average close to 50 steals a season. In 2012 Ben Revere stole 40 bases but had only an 89 OPS+.

Slugging percentage is calculated as total bases / total at bats. For total bases a single is worth one base, a double is worth two bases, a triple is worth three bases, and a home run is worth four bases. So if a stolen base practically turns a single into a double and a double into a triple then the stolen base should be accounted for in slugging percentage.

Before I elaborate, slugging percentage is often used to determine how well a player will drive in base runners. A player with a high slugging percentage will often hit doubles, triples, and home runs, hence driving in more runners. Additionally they will also get in scoring position better, because they do so from the get go. Slugging percentage has two practicalities.

So incorporating the stolen base into slugging percentage is very easy. Since a stolen base would be taking an additional base without an at bat, the number of at bats stay the same. The number of singles, doubles, triples, and home runs also stay the same. A stolen base would be worth one base and just added to the summation of bases.

One player I want to look at in particular is Jacoby Ellsbury. The Yankees got a lot of heat for signing Ellsbury instead of Robinson Cano. Ellsbury had 124 singles, 31 doubles, 8 triples, 9 home runs, and 52 stolen bases in 2013. He also had 577 at bats giving him a traditional slugging percentage of .426. Because he was caught stealing 4 times and theoretically speaking took away a base, his net stolen bases is what will be used to calculated his slugging percentage with his stolen bases. So Ellsbury's slugging percentage including stolen bases would be .515 ass opposed to .426, 89 points higher.

Robinson Cano's slugging percentage in 2013 was .516 and if you include his 6 net steals, .525. Robinson Cano was and still is a much better baseball player than Jacoby Ellsbury. Cano had a .383 on base percentage as opposed to Ellsbury's .355 on base percentage.  When accounting for stolen bases Cano's OPS was .908 in 2013 and Ellsbury's was .870. Ellsbury was just 38 points behind Cano, statistically speaking that is not very much.

To understand how important the stolen base is to Ellsbury in this particular case Prince Fielder had 32, 38, and 30 home runs and .471, .566, and .528 slugging percentages from 2010-2012 respectively. He did have an on base percentage over .400 each one of those years, but his average .521 slugging percentage is almost exactly Ellsbury's .505 career slugging percentage.Stolen bases are just as important as home runs.

To have some fun with this in 2012 Mike Trout stole 49 bases raising his slugging percentage from .564 to .642.  Miguel Cabrera had a .606 slugging percentage with just 3 net steals. Mike Trout's on base percentage was .399 and Miguel Cabrera's was .393. Giving Mike Trout a 1.041 OPS and Miguel Cabrera a .999 OPS+. They are practically identical, but Trout was stellar on defense and used his speed in additional ways, but Miguel Cabrera won the triple crown in 2012 and won the MVP on the historical basis.

FUN WITH NUMBERS!

Best and Worst Move of the Off season ... So Far

This off season has featured many moves including block buster trades and mega signings. Although the team making the moves may think they are making the right decision, some moves just don't make much sense. Here are the top three best and worst moves of the off season ... so far.

Best Moves:

3. Yankees sign Brian McCann to a 5 year $85 Million contract. This is a great deal for the Yankees because in since the days when Posada was the catcher in 2010, the Yankees have gotten very little production from the catchers position. In 2013, Chris Stewart and Austin Romine split the time behind the plate and had about a 55 OPS+. By signing the 4th best catcher in the MLB, McCann brings a significant upgrade at a dire position.

2. Nationals trade Steve Lombardozi, Ian Krol, and Robby Ray to the Tigers for Doug Fister. The Nationals were not going to resign their fourth starter, Dan Haren, so instead of spending big money on the free agent market, they went out and acquired a well respected pitcher. Fister will be 30 in February and will be a free agent in 2016. The Nationals have control of Fister for 2 seasons and he helps make one of the best rotations in baseball. By getting a number four starter who pitches to a 116 ERA+, and eats a lot of innings, the Nationals made a great move.

Fielder and his sons

1. Rangers acquire Prince Fielder and cash from the Tigers for Ian Kinsler. The Rangers needed to trade one of their infielders due a surplus and a desire to have Jurickson Profar start, and they also needed a first baseman. The Rangers accomplished both of those needs in one trade. They get rid of an average overrated second baseman in Kinsler and get one of the most durable, consistent, and powerful first basemen in the MLB. To make the deal even better for the Rangers, they get $30 Million in the trade as well. Fielder has missed just 1 game in the past 5 seasons, and the Tigers will pay $6 Million each year from 2016-2020 to make the Rangers only pay $18 Million those seasons. Fielder is also going to be 30 in May, 2 years younger than Kinsler.

Worst Moves:

3. The Phillies sign Roberto Hernandez to a 1 year $4.5 Million deal. This move is more in the category of highly unnecessary. Roberto Hernandez, formally known as Fausto Carmona, has found only the slightest bit of success at the Major League level in 2006 and 2010 with 3.06 and a 3.77 ERA respectively. Herandez will be 34 in August, pitched just 14 innings in 2012, and pitched to a 4.89 ERA in 2013. The Phillies are trying to get rid of payroll. They have tossed around the idea of trading Papelbon, Cliff Lee, and even Jimmy Rollins, but yet they go out and sign a 34 year old pitcher who is drastically set up to fail for $4.5 Million.

2. The Tigers trade Doug Fister to the Nationals for Steve Lombardozi, Ian Krol, and Robby Ray. Although this was a great trade for the Nationals, it was a horrific trade for the Tigers. Why would they trade a pitcher due to make less than $10 Million, under team control until 2016, and who has been successful the past few seasons? The Tigers traded for Ian Kinsler so they didn't desperately need a second baseman because they weren't going to resign Infante. Ian Krol is a 22 year old left handed relief pitcher, but they have Phil Coke in their bullpen, and Joe Nathan as their closer. The Tigers rotation took a blow because it was deep, but now following  Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez is Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly.

Robinson Cano

1. The Mariners sign Robinson Cano to a 10 year $240 Million contract. This is an incredibly stupid
move because the Mariners do not have any other significant players in their lineup. Kyle Seager has found success, but not enough to strike fear into pitchers facing Cano and Seager. Jesus Montero was supposed to come through as big offensive player, but did not and eventually got suspended. The Mariners went off to sign Corey Hart, but he is coming off a significant injury and even if he returns to his All Star form the Seattle Mariners still do not appear as an offensive threat. Cano's contract will carry him through his age 40 season which could mean trouble because Cano is a second baseman, as he gets old he will most likely need to shift position. The Mariners have a great two players to build around now (Cano and Hernandez), but much more will need to be added to compete in the AL West.
       

We're Leaving. Cano Signs With The Mariners. Granderson Signs With The Mets. And More

Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano has signed a 10 year $240 Million deal with the Seattle Mariners. In the wake of the Yankees signing Jacoby Ellsbury they allowed Robinson Cano to leave. Depending on what other bats the Yankees add, the departure of Robinson Cano may not be so upsetting. With the addition of Brian McCann, Ellsbury, Kelly Johnons, and possibly another player the Yankees
will improve their production at several positions and lose production at only second base. The Yankees may explore trades for Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips, or other second baseman, or take a more conventional route and sign free agents such as Omar Infante or Stephan Drew. With the departure of Robinson Cano I would personally bat Ellsbury third and have Gardner lead off with a right handed bat with some speed behind him.

As for the Seattle Mariners, Cano is not the end of their off season acquisitions. With Robinson Cano being the lone star in their lineup the Mariners are looking to add another bat. That bat is speculated to be Choo, Napoli, Carlos Beltran, or Nelson Cruz. I speculate they could trade for Matt Kemp for a few prospects, but the Mariners are serious in their pursuit of starting pitcher David Price. It has been said that the Mariners are willing to make a package featuring pitching prospect Taijuan Walker and second baseman Nick Franklin. A pitching rotation with Felix Hernandez, David Price, and Hisashi Iwakuma may bring back memories of the Mariners from over a decade away. A trade including Mike Zunino and Dustin Ackley may be able to land Matt Kemp or another impact bat. Signing another free agent will especially put the Mariners in competition for 2014.

Curtis Granderson

Curtis Granderson has apparently reached agreement the New York Mets worth $60 Million over 4 years. Granderson will bring much needed power to the Mets lineup and provide protection for David Wright. Already in an outfield with Juan Lagares, Eric Young Jr, and Chris B. Young, Granderson will probably play a corner outfield position. In three full seasons with the Yankees Granderson hit 108 home runs, but in the three full seasons in Detroit he played prior to coming to the Yankees, he hit 75 home runs. Although hitting coach Kevin Long changed his swing Yankee Stadium dramatically changed his stats for the better. Playing in Citi Field Granderson's days of 40 home run seasons are gone.

After being non tendered by the Blue Jays JP Arencibia has found a new home in Texas. The Rangers were looking for a catcher and instead of going after McCann, Pierzynski, or Saltalamacchia, the Rangers to the cheaper alternative by giving Arencibia to a 1 year $2 Million deal.

The Astros continued their quest to improve for the 2014 season by signing starting pitcher Scott Feldman to a 3 year $30 Million deal. After a successful season between the Cubs and the Orioles posting a 3.86 ERA in 186 innings pitched. After trading Jordan Lyles in a deal for Dexter Fowler, Feldman fills a hole in the Astros rotation.

The Marlins continue their under the radar moves by signing shortstop but likely second baseman Rafael Furcal. He will 36 in 2014 and has a career .284 career batting average and a .267 batting average from 2010-2012. Furcal missed all of 2013, but is expected to rebound in 2014.

This Will Be My Year

This post will be player predictions for big seasons in 2013. One player per position and the justification.

Starting Pitcher - Shaun Marcum

Marcum's ERA has hovered around 3.60 for the past three seasons. His main problem has been remaining healthy. He signed a contract to pitch for the Mets in 2013 his age 31 season. He doesn't throw hard, but he can locate and make pitches dance. Playing in Citi Field will yield about the same results as Miller Park, but if Marcum can stay healthy it won't matter. I predict he will lower his ERA to 3.23 and pitch close to 200 innings and could be a trade candidate for the Mets.

Relief Pitcher - Steve Cishek

Cishek is going to be 27 for the 2013 season and has already recorded two seasons of a sub 3.00 ERA. He is a sinker baller who doesn't allow many home runs in an already huge park. We saw how well Cishek performed for team USA in the WBC. I think this is the season where Cishek distinguishes himself as an elite closer in the game. He too might be traded by the trade deadline.

Catcher - Jesus Montero

Montero has been working on his defense abilities because a 23 year old should not be the designated hitter. According to many sources his defensive abilities have improved immensely. He was also really bummed out that the Yankees traded him to the Mariners as well, but I would too. Now Montero is in a rejuvenated lineup and he doesn't have to worry about his defense as much. You can expect Montero to be the star he is expected to be.

First Base - Freddie Freeman

Freeman is already pretty good but I think this is the year he becomes even better. He went though a sophomore slump in 2012. He maintained his power numbers he put up in 2011 and his on base percentage was close to identical, but his batting average dropped. This season the Braves added the two Upton brothers and they, along with Jason Heyward will be getting on base. With these guys on base Freeman won't be looking for walks, but swinging away... and getting hits and RBI's.

Second Base - Robinson Cano

Cano has been tearing it up for team Dominican Republic in this years WBC, not to mention he is also in the last year of his contact, and players tend to do best in the final year of their contract... for some reason. I still think Cano hasn't reached his peak and can hit for power, average, play great defense, and drive in runs. I think he reaches career highs in each category. .325 avg, 35 homers, 120  RBI's.

Third Base - Pablo Sandoval

We all saw Sandoval hit in the playoffs last season. This guy is beyond clutch. Just 19 batters out of 956 total batters hit a home run off of Justin Verlander in the 2012 regular season. Sandoval did it two times in the same night and then did it again. Sandoval has had some weight issues, but the Giants are working on that. Worst case scenario is Sandoval moves over to first base and they trade for a third baseman, but thats besides the point. Sandoval, with the 2012 MVP batting either in front of him or behind him, will rake this season. I'm talking .300+ avg, 30+ homers, and 100+ RBI's.

Short Stop - Derek Jeter

Jeter is a team player and he knows when to step up. Last year in the playoffs the guy was playing injured every day, and was still hitting great. He may not be as good defensively  but he will try harder and put the burden on his shoulders to get on base and score runs for a depleted Yankee offense. You can almost write it in permanent ink that Jeter will hit at least .290 and have a .340 on base percentage in 2013.

Left Field - Ryan Braun

What can I say, the guy is a beast. There will always be the discussion about whether or not he took performance enhancing drugs or not, but he is still the pride and joy of Milwaukee.  The guy has never hit lower than .285, never hit fewer than 25 home runs and never drove in fewer than 97 RBI's. Oh by the way hes been playing for 6 seasons and he will be 29 this year, the middle of his prime. You can pretty much say he is the best player in baseball and you can pencil him in for another MVP caliber season.

Center Field - Adam Jones

Finally Adam Jones is becomming the player that he was expected to be. He hit .287 and knocked out 32 homers in 2012. He can't improve much on the power, but he can improve on the average and his .334 on base percentage. A major part of Jones' success is Buck Showalter. Jones said he didn't want to sign the extension that he did, if Showalter was not going to be there. Buck encourages him to hustle and play hard. Jones if healthy can hit .295 and blast 30+ homers again.

Right Field - Hunter Pence

We all know Giancarlo Stanton is going to destroy pitching this season, that's why I didn't choose him. I picked Hunter Pence because he loves the team he plays for. He was a major part of the Giants in the playoffs last season. He didn't hit all that well down the stretch but he picked it up in October. Pence's defensive skills aren't top caliber, but he can hold his own in right field. I expect him to hit .280 with a .350 on base percentage and 25 homers in 2013.

Top 10 by Position

I have evaluated all the teams and now I will do my top 10 by position. The name of the player followed by their team. Both offense and defense are considered for the player's rank. I base the rankings on the player's past three seasons to get a large enough sample size, also accounting for age.

Catcher

1. Buster Posey - San Francisco Giants
2. Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins
3. Yadiar Molina - St. Louis Cardinals
4. Miguel Montero - Arizona Diamond Backs
5. AJ Pierzynski - Texas Rangers
6. Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles
7. Carlos Santana - Cleveland Indians
8. JP Arencibia - Toronto Blue Jays
9. Jared Saltalmaccia - Boston Red Sox
10. Jesus Montero - Seattle Mariners

"I'm the hero San Francisco deserves." 

First Base

1. Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds
2. Albert Pujols - Los Angeles Angels
3. Prince Fielder - Detroit Tigers
4. Adrian Gonzalez - Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox
6. Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees
7. Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies
8. Adam Laroach - Washington Nationals
9. Chris Davis - Baltimore Orioles
10. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins

"Hey Brandon, look at what I can do!"

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano - New York Yankees
2. Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox
3. Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds
4. Jason Kipnis - Cleveland Indians
5. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers
6. Aaron Hill - Arizona Diamond Backs
7. Jose Altuve - Houston Astros
8. Danny Espinosa - Washington Nationals
9. Marco Scuttaro - San Francisco Giants
10. David Murphy - New York Mets

"#Swag"

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
2. Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers
3. David Wright - New York Mets
4. Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Rays
5. Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco Giants
6. Aramis Ramirez - Milwaukee Brewers
7. Chase Headly - San Diego Padres
8. Ryan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals
9. Mike Moustakis - Kansas City Royals
10. Kevin Youkilis - New York Yankees

"You can call me King Cabrera"

Short Stop

1. Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies
2. Starlin Castro - Chicago Cubs
3. Jose Reyes - Toronto Blue Jays
4. Derek Jeter - New York Yankees
5. Hanley Ramirez - Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Elvis Andrus - Texas Rangers
7. Ian Desmond - Washington Nationals
8. JJ Hardy - Baltimore Orioles
9. Alexi Ramirez - Chicago White Sox
10. Erick Aybar - Los Angeles Angels

"I play for which team?"

Left Field

1. Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers
2. Josh Hamilton - Los Angeles Angels
3. Carlos Gonzalez - Colorado Rockies
4. Matt Holliday - St. Louis Cardinals
5. Michael Morse - Seattle Mariners
6. Justin Upton - Atlanta Braves
7. Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals
8. Josh Willingham - Minnesota Twins
9. Jason Kubel - Arizona Diamond Backs
10. Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals

"Spittin seeds like I'm hittin homers."

Center Field

1. Matt Kemp - Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Mike Trout - Los Angeles Angels
4. Adam Jones - Baltimore Orioles
5. Curtis Granderson - New York Yankees
6. BJ Upton - Atlanta Braves
7. Shin-Soo Choo - Cincinnati Reds
8. Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox
9. Angel Pagan - San Francisco Giants
10. Austin Jackson - Detroit Tigers

"What did Cano say?"

Right Field

1. Giancarlo Stanton - Miami Marlins
2. Jason Heyward - Atlanta Braves
3. Jay Bruce - Cincinnati Reds
4. Nick Swisher - Cleveland Indians
5. Andre Ethier - Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Jose Baustista - Toronto Blue Jays
7. Carlos Beltran - St. Lewis Cardinals
8. Hunter Pence - San Francisco Giants
9. Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles
10. Ichiro Suzuki - New York Yankees

"Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one on the field."

Designated Hitters - Top 5

1. David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox
2. Edwin Encarnacion - Toronto Blue Jays
3. Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals
4. Victor Martinez - Detroit Tigers
5. Kendrys Morales - Seattle Mariners

"Hitting singles is too mainstream" 

Starting Pitcher

1. Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
3. Felix Hernandez - Seattle Mariners
4. Jered Weaver - Los Angeles Angels
5. David Price - Tampa Bay Rays
6. RA Dickey - Toronto Blue Jays
7. Matt Cain - San Francisco Giants
8. Stephan Strasburg - Washington Nationals
9. CC Sabathia - New York Yankees
10. Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies

"Koufax said he liked my stuff!"

Closers

1. Craig Kimbrel - Atlanta Braves
2. Aroldis Chapman - Cincinnati Reds
3. Mariano Rivera - New York Yankees
4. Fernando Rodney - Tampa Bay Rays
5. Johnathon Papelbon - Philadelphia Phillies
6. Sergio Romo - San Francisco Giants
7.  Kenley Jansen - Los Angeles Dodgers
8.  Rafael Soriano - Washington Nationals
9. Steve Cishek - Maimi Marlins
10. Jim Johnson - Baltimore Orioles

"Right handed Billy Wagner? How about non left handed Craig Kimbrel?"

Remember it isn't just the players that make a team good. It is how they play together and they players around them.

The New York Yankees

The Yankees finished 2011 with a record of 97-65, but were eliminated in the ALDS by The Tigers. They made some changes this off season to make sure that doesn't happen again.

The major changes The Yankees made were changes to the starting rotation. They traded Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda. This was probably one of the most even trades of the year. Montero had 69 plate appearances with 4 home runs and 12 RBI's. It was a small sample size for the Yankees, but pitching was more important. The Yankees also signed Hiroki Kuroda to a 1 year $10 million contract. A very efficient deal. With these two acquisitions the Yankees' pitching rotation will probably be the following:



CC Sabathia: 19-8, 147 ERA+, 237 IP, 230 K.
Hiroki Kuroda: 13-16, 121 ERA+, 202 IP, 161 K.
Michael Pineda: 9-10, 103 ERA+, 171 IP, 173 K.
Ivan Nova: 16-4, 119 ERA+, 165 IP, 98 K.
Freddy Garcia: 12-8, 122 ERA+, 146 IP, 96 K.

By the way all their names end with "A." Can you think of a good name to call them. Like the Phillies had H2O in 2010.

The bullpen for the Yankees is also a strong point. They have the great Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, and Rafael Soriano. Rivera had a 1.91 ERA, 44 saves and 8.8 K/9 rate. Robertson had a 1.08 ERA, and 13.5 K/9 rate, As for Soriano, he had a rough season, part of it being injured. He had a 4.12 ERA in 2011, but he has a 2.86 ERA over his career. The combination of these three pitchers gives the Yankees the best 7th, 8th and 9th inning relief pitcher combination in baseball.

The Yankees also have one of the best lineups if not the best. The only two teams that compare to the compare to The Yankees' lineup are The Boston Red Sox and The Texas Rangers. Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson all hit over 20 home runs. Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson all had an on base percentage of .350 or greater. Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano and Mark Teixiera all drove in more than 100 RBI's. That's a quick summation of the power provided by The Yankees. In 2012 Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter will be back for the entire season. Also I predict that Brett Gardner will have a break out season.

The Yankees are currently working out a deal to trade AJ Burnett to the Pirates for salary relief and probably a couple of minor league players. As for Phil Hughes he may be fighting with Freddie Garcia for the 5th spot in the rotation or Hughes can be the 6th inning man in the bullpen. Also The Yankees are on the verge of signing or trading for a DH. They would prefer a left handed DH to face right handed pitching, because he will platoon with Andruw Jones, who will face left handed pitching.

5 Players to Have a Big 2012 Season

Looking at various statistics, there are a few players I believe will have a breakthrough or comeback seasons in 2012.

Robinson Cano - Cano is entering his age 29 season. Players are said to be in their prime from the ages of 28-32. 2011 for Robinson Cano was a down year from 2009 and 2010. He plays about 160 games a year, I think 2012 wont be any different. He is a doubles machine getting an average of 45 doubles a year over the past 3 years. His power serge gives him an average of 27 home runs a year over the past 3 years. Also averaging 104 RBI's over the past 3 years. I project Cano to finish with 30 home runs 120 RBI's and a .370 on base percentage.

Prince Fielder - Fielder will be 28 in May of 2012 and he already has established the title of a super slugger. With an average OPS of .955 over his past 3 seasons he is without a doubt a power house. Depending on where he signs that number could skyrocket. If he signs with The Rangers or The Orioles or any team in a hitter friendly park he can put up some big numbers. I project Fielder to finish with 40 home runs 115 RBI's and a .400 on base percentage no matter where he plays.

Albert Pujols - After 2011 the 32 year old Pujols looked to be on the decline. I think that a change of scenery will bring him back to the Pujols of old. Pujols has always been known to get on base and draw walks. With a new offense in front of him he may have an another big season. playing 13 few games than usual Pujols hit 37 home runs in 2011. Playing against American League pitching I say he finishes with 42 home runs, 120 RBI's and a .390 on base percentage.

Tim Lincecum - The Freak will turn 28 in June of 2012 After an improved 2011 season. 2010 was disappointing for Lincecum although The Giants won the world series. A 0.69 point drop in ERA from 2010 to 2011 means Lincecum is going back to being himself. Although his strike outs have been declining, his whip remains the same. I see a spike in his strikeouts to occur in 2012 giving him a 2.65 ERA, 240 strikeouts, 1.1 WHIP and of course 200+ inning pitched.

Yu Darvish - Darvish will be 26 in Mid season of 2012. In Japan he had a 1.72 ERA over 5 years and an average of 217 strikeouts a year. The only thing I am frightened about is that he only pitches about 26 games a season. How will he perform in September and October. Japanese pitchers tend to have their best season in the first year in the MLB. I project Darvish to finish with a 2.78 ERA, 210 strikeouts, 1.0 WHIP and slightly over 200 innings pitched.