Closing Time

Entering the game in the 9th inning beginning with a slow walk, and then transitioning into a steady jog to the mound, a legend has done this a remarkable 1052 times. He does not enter to the mellow sounds of the band Semisonic, but to the heavy and hypnotizing sounds of 'Enter Sandman' by Metallica. That legend is of course, Mariano Rivera. 

As a young man growing up in Panama, Rivera had his sights on becoming a mechanic and not following in the footsteps of his father, a fisherman. Also growing up in poverty Rivera and his friends had to use milk cartons as gloves and tree branches as bats, but not once had Rivera expected to throw the last pitch in five World Series victories. Its the stuff kids dream of, but Rivera only thought of baseball as a hobby. 

Being signed as an amateur free agent in 1990 a 21 year old Mariano had a five year road to the show, finding much failure along the way. Finally in 1995 Rivera made his debut, and in 1995 he made his only 10 starts of his career. With 67 innings pitched, Rivera's rookie season was nothing close to successful  with a 5.51 ERA. Fortunately for both Rivera and the Yankees, that would be most of the failure in his career. 

Rivera would pitch 107.2 innings in 1996 with a 2.09 ERA and 130 strikeouts, finishing third in Cy Young Award balloting. In 1997 Rivera took over a closer as John Wetland went to pitch for the Texas Rangers, and Rivera ran away with it. With his new responsibility, the then 27 year old was cool, calm, and collected on the mound, but his devastating and iconic cut fastball was something wicked. 

As we skip ahead to 2012, Rivera had flirted with the idea of retirement for a number of years, but this appeared to be the year. We all expected it would be the last year the legend would pitch, but a devastating injury put him out for the entire year. The man who everyone loves tore his ACL and that ended his season, but then a reassuring quote by Rivera brought all the fans and media back to life. "I will be back." Just five words, but they meant so much to everyone. 

The man is now 43 years old and has tallied up 1230 innings, 618 saves, 1130 strikeouts, 12 all star games, 5 world series and a 2.21 ERA. He is defying time itself, by throwing his cutter at 90 miles per hour consistently with accuracy. One month into the season Rivera has continued his success and doesn't appear to have skipped a beat. He has collected 10 saves in 10 attempts while striking out 11 with a 1.74 ERA. 

Mariano Rivera is my favorite baseball player ever, his autographed baseball is my prized possession and when he enters a game, its almost certain the Yankees will have a win. 'The Sandman' put all the rumors to sleep this year in spring training and confirmed that this will be his last season. Rivera has stated that throwing his last pitch to win the World Series is how he wants his career to end, and that's the way it should end. 

The living legend has successfully closed the door 618 times, and come October, he will be closing the door on his career. 

Sayonara Mo. 

Pitching Performance Value

How do you truly identify how well a pitcher performed? Looking at his ERA+, WHIP or his K/9 rate may be misleading. What if a set up man comes into the game and gets out 3 great hitters and then the closer comes in and gets out 3 mediocre hitters. Their performances look the same on paper, but they actually aren't. The set up man had to work harder to get the outs and those outs held more significance.

I would like to establish a statistic that shows this. This one is very simple: it is just a ratio of ERA to the average OPS of the hitters faced. It will look something like this: PPV = ERA/ AOPS.

On September 25, 2011 The Yankees played The Red Sox in a double header they lost in extra innings in one game and won the other. In the first game David Robertson pitched four outs and faced David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia. He struck out Ellsbury, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Crawford flew out. Mariano Rivera pitched in the second game and he faced Jarrod Saltalamacchia, JD Drew, Marco Scutaro, Mike Aviles, and Adrian Gonzalez.   He got out Saltalamacchia, Drew and Aviles.

I chose September 25, 2011 because it was close to the end of the season and their stats were close to complete. The OPS of the opposing players should be taken on the day of the performance, because hot and cold streaks do exist. Although some people believe hot and cold streaks do not exist, they do. You need to know how well the batter was doing up to that day. A batter could hit 5 home runs in one week and then 0 for an entire month.

So Robertson got out Ellsbury (.928 OPS), Ortiz (.953 OPS), Gonzalez (.957 OPS), and Crawford (.694 OPS). Robertsons ERA was 1.08. So the stat would be set up as PPV = 1.08 / ((.928 + .953 + .957 + .694) / 4). That turns out to be 1.22. The lower the number the better. Marinao River had an ERA of 1.91 and he got out Saltalamacchia (.737 OPS), Drew (.617 OPS), and Aviles (.775 OPS). 1.91 / ((.737 + .617 + .775) / 3) =  2.69

Robertson performed better than Rivera on September 25, 2011.  I know they didn't pitch in the same game, but the batters they faced are the main reason. You can use this stat to evaluate a pitchers performance on any day, as long as you use the batters OPS for that day. It also works for starting pitchers, but there will be a lot more numbers to average.

The New York Yankees

The Yankees finished 2011 with a record of 97-65, but were eliminated in the ALDS by The Tigers. They made some changes this off season to make sure that doesn't happen again.

The major changes The Yankees made were changes to the starting rotation. They traded Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda. This was probably one of the most even trades of the year. Montero had 69 plate appearances with 4 home runs and 12 RBI's. It was a small sample size for the Yankees, but pitching was more important. The Yankees also signed Hiroki Kuroda to a 1 year $10 million contract. A very efficient deal. With these two acquisitions the Yankees' pitching rotation will probably be the following:



CC Sabathia: 19-8, 147 ERA+, 237 IP, 230 K.
Hiroki Kuroda: 13-16, 121 ERA+, 202 IP, 161 K.
Michael Pineda: 9-10, 103 ERA+, 171 IP, 173 K.
Ivan Nova: 16-4, 119 ERA+, 165 IP, 98 K.
Freddy Garcia: 12-8, 122 ERA+, 146 IP, 96 K.

By the way all their names end with "A." Can you think of a good name to call them. Like the Phillies had H2O in 2010.

The bullpen for the Yankees is also a strong point. They have the great Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, and Rafael Soriano. Rivera had a 1.91 ERA, 44 saves and 8.8 K/9 rate. Robertson had a 1.08 ERA, and 13.5 K/9 rate, As for Soriano, he had a rough season, part of it being injured. He had a 4.12 ERA in 2011, but he has a 2.86 ERA over his career. The combination of these three pitchers gives the Yankees the best 7th, 8th and 9th inning relief pitcher combination in baseball.

The Yankees also have one of the best lineups if not the best. The only two teams that compare to the compare to The Yankees' lineup are The Boston Red Sox and The Texas Rangers. Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson all hit over 20 home runs. Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson all had an on base percentage of .350 or greater. Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano and Mark Teixiera all drove in more than 100 RBI's. That's a quick summation of the power provided by The Yankees. In 2012 Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter will be back for the entire season. Also I predict that Brett Gardner will have a break out season.

The Yankees are currently working out a deal to trade AJ Burnett to the Pirates for salary relief and probably a couple of minor league players. As for Phil Hughes he may be fighting with Freddie Garcia for the 5th spot in the rotation or Hughes can be the 6th inning man in the bullpen. Also The Yankees are on the verge of signing or trading for a DH. They would prefer a left handed DH to face right handed pitching, because he will platoon with Andruw Jones, who will face left handed pitching.

Relief Pitcher's Clutch

We all know those really tough situations in the ball game. Bases loaded, no outs, and the opponents slugger is at bat. Who do you want to get you out of this jam? The guy in your bullpen with the most clutch. Up to now there hasn't been a reliable statistic to measure a pitchers clutch to my knowledge. Well I have developed one. I call this statistic RPC standing for Relief Pitcher's Clutch.

If your in a tough part of a game, you want a strike out, this is what relief pitchers are inevitably known for. In this statistic strikeouts will work at a pitchers advantage. Runs and an elevated whip (walks and hits per innings pitcher) will work at the pitcher's disadvantage. In an important game where the score is close and there are runners on base, you do not want runs to score, nor do you want to add additional runners on base.

To explain why the strikeout is important. If you get a strikeout you are obviously not getting a different kind of out, ground out, fly out, pop out etc. A 'contact out' may result in a run scoring and there is always a chance of the fielder dropping it or committing an error. This is why strikeouts would work at the relief pitcher's advantage in the statistic.

Finally to reveal the statistic: RPC = (Strikeouts / Runs) / (Walks and hits per innings pitched)
                                           RPC = (K/R) / (Whip)
                                           * The higher the number the better the pitcher's clutch

Now you check the math. What if the Runs or Whip is equal to 0. In the case of Runs be 0 the RPC is infinity. In the statistic for earned run average, if a pitcher gives up a run with 0 innings pitched, his ERA would be INF.  Getting back to RPC, if a pitcher's RPC is infinity he is currently 100% clutch, because he has not allowed a run to score. If the whip is 0 the player currently doesn't qualify for the statistic, because he could have given up a run without giving up a hit. If Both Whip and Runs are 0 then the RPC is infinity.

To look at some examples. David Robertson is notorious for getting out of big jams. He has 100 strikeouts, 9 runs, and a 1.125 whip. This gives him a 9.88 RPC. among the highest for 2011, earning him the name Houdini.

Dennis Eckersley's 1990 season 73 strikeouts, 9 runs, and a 0.614 whip giving him a  13.21 RPC, one of the best all time.

Now you may say RPC is directly proportional to ERA. Not always. Tyler Clippard of the Washington Nationals, and Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees have very similar ERA's 1.83 and 1.91, respectively. That is just a 0.08 point difference, barely anything, or noticeable, but Clippard's high amount of strikeouts (104) makes him much more clutch. Clippards RPC is 6.89 and Rivera's is 5.14. Rivera gets more of his outs from contact, making him less clutch in a tough situation.

I believe that the clutch rating may be the end of the closer, because if you have bases loaded jam with none out in the 7th inning, wouldn't you want your best pitcher to be in the game then and not close the door with the bases empty, just cruising by.