2011 World Series

The 2011 World Series was one of the most entertaining I have ever watched. The Texas Rangers' powerful offense and the St. Louis Cardinals' devoted fans and star players battled it out in seven games, along the way there were walk off wins and key hits, but what will be the key for these teams in 2013?

The Texas Rangers lost most of their key players from the glory days of 2011, but the bad part is, they replaced them with sub par players. Josh Hamilton signed with the Angels, Mike Napoli signed with the Red Sox, and Michael Young was traded to the Phillies. The Rangers have Jurickson Profar, Lance Berkman, and AJ Pierzynski to replace those three sluggers. The Rangers were very reluctant to put Elvis Andrus in the deal for Justin Upton, so that is why they missed out on the big hitter they need. The main concern is where everyone will play, there has been talk about moving Kinsler to first.

1. R. Andrus SS    91 OPS+
2. S. Profar 2B     .820 OPS in AA
3. R. Beltre 3B      137 OPS+
4. R. Cruz RF        101 OPS+
5. S. Berkman DH 126 OPS+
6. R. Kinsler 1B     95 OPS+
7. L. Pierzynski C   118 OPS+
8. L. Murphy LF     124 OPS+
9. L. Borbon CF     73 OPS+

The Rangers are anchored by Yu Darvish who didn't do as well as expected, but still pretty well. The rotation in Texas is rough, but they will have to push through it.

1. R. Yu Darvish 3.90 ERA
2. R. Colby Lewis 3.43 ERA
3. L. Matt Harrison 3.29 ERA
4. L. Derek Holland  4.67 ERA
5. R. Alexi Ogando 3.27 ERA in bullpen

The bullpen for the Rangers lost super set up man Mike Adams to free agency and Koji Uehara also to free agency. They did sign Joakim Soria to either close or set up for Joe Nathan. Also I expect Neftali Feliz to go back to the bullpen where he has had success previously.

I project 76 wins for the Rangers in 2013.

Both Pujols and Hamilton departed for Anaheim 

The Cardinals made it to the NLCS in 2013 after winning the wild card game and defeating the Nationals in a five game NLDS. They did all of that without Albert Pujols, which shocked many, and they are looking to shock many again in 2013.

1. L. Jay CF         113 OPS+
2. L. Descalso 2B 72 OPS+
3. R. Holliday LF  138 OPS+
4. S. Beltran RF    128 OPS+
5. R. Molina C      137 OPS+
6. R. Craig 1B      137 OPS+
7. R. Freese 3B     129 OPS+
8. R. Kozma SS     no recent stats

Chris Carpenter is out for the entire year and very well could be at the end of his career. The rotation is led by Adam Wainwright, but is without Kyle Lohse. Nobody in the rotation really blows you away theoretically, but Trevor Rosenthal can blow you away with his fast ball.

1. R. Adam Wainwight 3.94 ERA
2. L. Jamie Garcia 3.92 ERA
3. R. Lance Lynn  3.78 ERA
4. R. Jake Westbrook 3.97 ERA
5. R. Trevor Rosenthal 2.78 ERA in bullpen

The Cardinals' have a pretty good bullpen. Jason Motte closes the door in the ninth inning. Lefies Marc Rzepczynski aka every announcers nightmare and Randy Choate are the lefties in the pen. Also in the pen is Shelby Miller and Mitchell Boggs, but expect Miller to compete for the fifth starter spot.

I project 83 wins for the cardinals in 2013.

Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is one of baseball's most respected players. In recent years he hasn't been performing as well as he used to do. Some say he is finally reached an age where his body cannot do as well as he did when he was younger, but I say there is more than that.

In 2010 Derek Jeter's on base percentage was only .340. That is unacceptable compared to his career on base percentage of .383. In 2011 Jeter raised his batting average 27 points and his on base percentage 15 points. Like most hitters as they get older their batting average goes down but the on base percentage becomes more respectable.

Again we are talking about BABIP. In 2002 Jeter hit .297 just like in 2011. His BABIP was equal by coincidence at .336. The difference between 2002 and 2011 was .373 and .355 respective on base percentages. In 2008 Jeter's BABIP was lower ( .333) but his batting average was higher ( .300.) He was getting hits without getting lucky, he was hitting very well.

Jeter made adjustments halfway through the 2011. He went to Tampa on a rehab assignment, but while he was there he also worked on his swing. It was a noticeable difference. Jeter was on fire for the second half and back to the Jeter we all know and love.

For 2012 I predict that Jeter will have a batting average over .300 with a respectable on base percentage of around .365. The only difference being he will hit the ball to left more often. As the old saying goes a hit is a hit.

What makes Roy Halladay so great?

Roy Halladay is ranked the best pitcher in Major League Baseball by almost every single analyst. He is without a doubt great, and his presence on the mound automatically gives your time a greater chance to win. In 2011 he had a 2.35 ERA over 233 innings, with 220 strikeouts and 19 wins. A season that great does not win the Cy Young due to Clayton Kershaw's win of the triple crown.

Well we all know Roy Halladay is a fantastic pitcher, but what exactly makes him so great? Well first of all he doesn't give up runs. The other team can't win if they don't score. Just 65 runs for the entire year were charged to Roy Halladay and only 61 of them were eared runs. Roy Halladay only allows a hitter to hit a fly ball 30.6% of the time and his home runs to fly ball percentage is 5%.

Halladay also gets plenty of ground balls; 50.9% to be exact. The abundance of ground balls allows Halladay to get batters to hit into double plays and keep his pitch count low. Halladay also throws many different pitches. The reason why that is important is because he throws them all for strikes and mixes his pitches effectively. When he pitches he thinks, he throws what the batter is not expecting.

David Wright

David Wright is the current face of The Mets' franchise. He has played third base for The Mets since 2004. His career peeked in 2007 and 2008 when he hit 30 and 33 home runs respectively. In 2007 he had a .416 on base percentage and in 2008 he had a .390 on base percentage. David Wright was a huge offensive threat, but he can't make the whole team.

In 2009 The Mets moved into their new ballpark Citi Field. It is a lot bigger than Shea Stadium, but personally I have to say it is a lot nicer too. I have visited Shea Stadium and Citi Field and Citi Field is a lot nicer for the fans and for the players.

In 2009 Wright played his first full season at Citi Field and only hit 5 home runs in 70 games at Citi Field. His strike out percentage rocketed up and his walk percentage dropped. This shows that he was trying to hit the ball further. The average distance of the wall in Shea Stadium was 367 feet in Citi Field it was 374 feet. 7 feet may not make much of a difference, but the odd dimensions of Citi Field can have a physical and physiological effect on a batter.

The walls in Citi Field have been moved closer for the 2012 season. The average distance of the wall will now be 369 feet. The most significant change is the left center gap which is going from 371 feet to 358 feet. This is important because a large portion of Wright's home runs are hit to left field and left-center field.

The whole thing may just be a physiological trick, but the walls are technically closer. The dimensions of Citi Field are similar to those of Shea Stadium and that means when David Wright is healthy he will be playing gold glove caliber third base and hitting 20-30 home runs again.

Mariano Rivera and Jim Thome

In 2011 Mariano Rivera and Jim Thome both reached career milestones. The number 600 will both be unique to Jim Thome and Mariano Rivera because Thome hit his 600th home run in 2011 and Rivera recorded his 600th save. In yesterday's article I discussed two young players making their debut season. Today i'll discuss two of the game's most established veterans of which 2012 may be their last season.

Thome played with The Indians, White Sox, Phillies, Twins and The Dodgers in his 21 year career. Thome hit 604 home runs in his career and had 12 seasons in which he hit 30 or more home runs. People often forget about Thome's 2287 career hits and a .403 on base percentage. Thome has a career 147 OPS+. Although Jim Thome lacks a victory in the World Series he is still ticketed for the Hall of Fame.

Mariano Rivera has played his entire 17 year career with The Yankees. He is respected in New York and everywhere he goes. He is without a doubt the greatest reliever ever. In 2011 he recorded his 600th save and has 603 for his career. He also has a 2.21 career ERA and 5 World Series victories. A career 206 OPS+ also shows Rivera's dominance among the other pitchers in his era.

Rivera and Thome may be embarking on their last season in The MLB. Thome will play with The Phillies and Rivera will play with The Yankees in 2012. Not only are they great baseball players they are great people. Ask anyone who has met one of them and they will say Jim Thome or Mariano Rivera is the nicest guy you can meet. If 2012 is their last season seeing these two legends stand next to each other in Cooperstown in the future will be a great sight.

Matt Moore and Bryce Harper

Matt Moore and Bryce Harper are set to take the field on their first full season in the MLB this year. They are the two most hyped up prospects in baseball and some say Harper is the most talked about all time.

Matt Moore was born on June 18, 1989 making him 22 years old when he starts the season. He will be among some of the youngest players in baseball, but he is projected to be better than most the other pitchers. The Rays have been slowly building up the amount of innings he pitches every year, so he won't burn out in September. This was a very smart move, because fatigue is something we see in a lot of young pitchers in their first  few season. In 2011 he pitched 164 innings in AA, AAA, and The MLB. In all three of the leagues he pitched in during 2011 his ERA didn't surpass 3.00.  Moore is projected to have around a 3.40 ERA for The Rays in 2012 and he will be able to pitch a full season due to The Rays'  great farm system.  

Bryce Harper is probably the most talked about prospect in a long time if not ever. Scouts are comparing him to Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr and Alex Rodriguez. I believe that is great company to be with. Although Harper is a great ball player and athlete there is controversy sounding him. He finished school early to be able to pursue his professional baseball career. One time when Harper hit a home run, while rounding first base he blew a kiss to the pitcher. Just tip you cap and jog around the bases. Harper was born on October 16, 1992. He will be 19 when he reaches the major leagues just like Rodriguez, Griffey and Mantle. Harper will not be on the opening day roster, but he will make the trip to Washington near the end of April. This tactic used by the Nationals is to push back his eligibility for arbitration and free agency one more year. The San Francisco Giants made this mistake With Tim Lincecum and had to pay up big time.

The average age of a baseball player is getting younger, but there will always be an established veteran in the game. Without prospects baseball would die out. The constant replenishment of talent is necessary to keep the game moving to the future. In 15 years from now Bryce Harper or Matt Moore may be giving advice to one of your friends, children, or someone you know. You can never know.

Mark Teixeira

I'm sure we have all heard about Mark Teixeira saying he will be laying down bunts this year to avoid hitting into the shift. As a left handed hitter Teixeira hit 100% of his home runs to right field. and 62% of his hits went to right field as a left handed hitter. The shift is a good idea from the opposing managers.

When Teixeira is hitting against the shift the third baseman moves all the way next to second base. Teixeira's mentality is: If there is no one at third base, i'll just hit it over there. His on base percentage vs right handed pitching is .325. If there is a right handed pitcher on the mound 74% of time then Teixeira has a problem. There should be an increase in Teixeira's on base percentage but a decrease in his home runs if he goes through with this.

The opposing team will notice that Teixeira is getting on base due to the bunt and will move the players back to normal alignment. When back to normal alignment Teixeira can swing for the fences and not hit into the shift. Teixiera will probably hit 5th this season so his overall performance wont be as important as it was when he was hitting 3rd. If Teixeira can get everything together and get on base and continue to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 RBI's The Yankees will again have a devastating line up.  

Pitching Performance Value

How do you truly identify how well a pitcher performed? Looking at his ERA+, WHIP or his K/9 rate may be misleading. What if a set up man comes into the game and gets out 3 great hitters and then the closer comes in and gets out 3 mediocre hitters. Their performances look the same on paper, but they actually aren't. The set up man had to work harder to get the outs and those outs held more significance.

I would like to establish a statistic that shows this. This one is very simple: it is just a ratio of ERA to the average OPS of the hitters faced. It will look something like this: PPV = ERA/ AOPS.

On September 25, 2011 The Yankees played The Red Sox in a double header they lost in extra innings in one game and won the other. In the first game David Robertson pitched four outs and faced David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia. He struck out Ellsbury, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Crawford flew out. Mariano Rivera pitched in the second game and he faced Jarrod Saltalamacchia, JD Drew, Marco Scutaro, Mike Aviles, and Adrian Gonzalez.   He got out Saltalamacchia, Drew and Aviles.

I chose September 25, 2011 because it was close to the end of the season and their stats were close to complete. The OPS of the opposing players should be taken on the day of the performance, because hot and cold streaks do exist. Although some people believe hot and cold streaks do not exist, they do. You need to know how well the batter was doing up to that day. A batter could hit 5 home runs in one week and then 0 for an entire month.

So Robertson got out Ellsbury (.928 OPS), Ortiz (.953 OPS), Gonzalez (.957 OPS), and Crawford (.694 OPS). Robertsons ERA was 1.08. So the stat would be set up as PPV = 1.08 / ((.928 + .953 + .957 + .694) / 4). That turns out to be 1.22. The lower the number the better. Marinao River had an ERA of 1.91 and he got out Saltalamacchia (.737 OPS), Drew (.617 OPS), and Aviles (.775 OPS). 1.91 / ((.737 + .617 + .775) / 3) =  2.69

Robertson performed better than Rivera on September 25, 2011.  I know they didn't pitch in the same game, but the batters they faced are the main reason. You can use this stat to evaluate a pitchers performance on any day, as long as you use the batters OPS for that day. It also works for starting pitchers, but there will be a lot more numbers to average.

The Cincinnati Reds

The Reds finished the 2011 season with a record of 79 wins and 83 losses. They had a busy off season and are going to work hard for a division title.

The Reds have the 26 year old right handed pitcher Jonny Cueto. Cueto pitched 156 innings with an ERA of 2.31. Cueto has a lot of talent, but needs to work a little harder. The Reds also have 35 year old Bronson Arroyo.Arroyo is an innings eater. He has pitched 200 innings the past 7 seasons and has a 4.19 ERA over that time. An ERA that high is acceptable over so many innings. Mike Leake is 24 years old and pitched 167 innings with a 3.86 ERA in 2011. Finally The Reds traded for 24 year old right handed pitcher Matt Latos. Latos pitched 184 innings in  2010 and 194 innings in 2011. in 2010 he had a 2.92 and a 3.47 ERA in 2011. Since he is only 24 he will only get better with time. The Reds have a very stable and strong pitching rotation; the 5th spot may be taken by Homer Bailey or Andrew Brackman.

The 2010 MVP award was taken by Joey Votto. In 2011 Votto continued to be a huge offensive threat. In 161 games he hit 29 home runs, 40 doubles, 103 RBI's and had an on base percentage of .416. Votto also won the gold glove award in 2011, showing that he is improving in all aspects of his game. Jay Bruce is the other slugger in the lineup for The Reds. Bruce hit 32 home runs and had a .474 slugging percentage in 2011. Lets not forget about all star second baseman Brandon Phillips. He hit 18 home runs while having a .353 on base percentage and wining the gold glove award.

The Bullpen for The Reds has taken a revolutionary turn for the better. They signed free agent closer Ryan Madson. Madson has pitched wonderfully over the past 2 seasons, collecting a 2.45 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. They also acquired Sean Marshal from The Cubs. Coincidentally the lefty has a 2.45 ERA over the past 2 seasons as well. Aroldis Chapman is the flamethrower in the bullpen for The Reds. Chapman throws 98-100 MPH fast balls consistently and a deadly slider that is 87 MPH. I do not want to get hit with that. Jose Arredondo threw 53 innings in 2011 with an ERA of 3.23 and Nick Masset threw 70 inngs with a 3.71 ERA in 2011. The Reds have a very strong bullpen.

I have the Reds set to win the NL Central in 2011. They will compete with their rivals The Cardinals for the division title. It will be interesting to see the conflict between the 2 rise throughout the 2011 season.

The Kansas City Royals

The Royals finished with a 71-91 record in the 2011 season. They are a factory for young talent and may be in the contention for a wild card in a few years.

Billy Butler is often looked over when people think of a great DH. Butler has played 4 full seasons and has a .361 on base percentage and a .459 slugging percentage over that time. He has 66 home runs and 162 doubles over that period as well. Eric Hosmer is 22 years old and in his rookie season he hit 19 home runs, and had a .799 OPS. That will only improve with time. Mike Moustakas played 89 games as the third baseman for The Royals and slugged .367 over that time. He is only 23, but scouts say he has a lot of talent.

The Royals traded Melky Cabrera for Jonathon Sanchez. Sanchez had an elevated ERA in 2011. His ERA is 4.26 over his career and coincidental 4.26 in 2011. In 2010 his ERA was 3.07, proving what he can really do. All of the other spots in The Royals' rotation are only question marks. They don't have any great aces or all stars, but they do have a treat in the bullpen.

From 2007-2010 Joakim Soria's ERA was 2.01, but in 2011 it fluctuation to 4.03. Over 5 years Soria has managed to get 160 saves for The Royals and has  9.7 K/9. Jonathon Broxton also joined The Royals' roster this off season. He has a 3.19 ERA over 7 seasons for The Dodgers. He has been having trouble in his past few years with a 4.04 ERA in 2010 and just 12 innings pitched in 2011, but I think the royals can get some production out of him.

The Royals will not win The AL Central this year and probably not for a while. They need to develop their pitching more and have their prospects shine. The Tigers are a definite force to be reckoned with, but in the future The Royals may bring them down. Lets not forget that the all star game will be at Kaufman Stadium this year.


 

The Colorado Rockies

The Rockies finished the 2011 season with a 73-89 record and They dealt Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians mid season. The Rockies have a decent lineup, but basically no pitching.

The Rockies have one of the best combinations in baseball. The Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez combo is one of the best in baseball. Tulowitzki hit 30 home runs and 105 RBI's with a .372 on base percentage. Gonzalez hit 26 home runs and 92 RBI's with a .363 on base percentage. Tulowitzki played all of his games at short stop and Gonzalez played all three outfield position. They are 2 five tool players and play important positions. Gonzalez and Tulowitzki are very valuable to The Rockies. Todd Helton had a .385 on base percentage with a .446 slugging percentage in 2011. Helton is proving that he can still compete at the age of 37.

The Rockies don't have any good pitching. Huston Street is now on The Padres and no longer on the Rockies. The Rockies lost a great pitcher when Ubaldo Jimenez went to The Indians mid season. They Rockies did trade for Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is 32 and pitches about 200 innings every season. Although his ERA hovers around 4.00 he has the potential to be a good pitcher.

I don't think The Rockies can compete with The Giants, Dodgers and Diamond Backs in The NL West. They don't have the pitching and they're offense is useless unless they have decent pitching.

The Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays finished with a record of 81-81 in 2011. This off season they have been adding relief pitchers, when they should be adding offense.

The Blue Jays traded for Sergio Santos, Signed Francisco Cordero, and Darren Oliver.  The Blue Jays continue to steadily build their bullpen. Their bullpen is currently a conglomeration of old and young players. It is a definite strength to The Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays also have one of the most dangerous sluggers who had risen out of no where. Bautista hit 54 home runs in 2010 with an on base percentage of .378. In 2011 Bautisita hit 43 home runs with an on base percentage of .447. He is a definite force to be reckoned with. JP Arencibia is the 26 year old catcher who emerged by hitting 23 home runs for The Blue Jays in 2011. Brett Lawrie is the 22 year old Canadian born third baseman who burst on the scene in 2011. In 43 games Lawrie hit 9 home runs, 4 triples, and 8 doubles. He earned 25 RBI's and a .373 on base percentage.

The pitching rotation is anchored by Ricky Romero. In 2011 he pitched 225 innings with a 2.92 ERA. If Brandon Morrow were to work on his command and control he can be an all star pitcher. His ERA is consistently over 4. I think Morrow can do much better than he is showing. Will The Blue Jays give Kyle Drabek another chance to make the rotation? He is considered a top prospect as he was part of the Roy Halladay trade. Drabek had an ERA above 6 in 78 innings pitched in 2011.

Th Blue Jays have no chance of making the playoffs. Playing in a division with The Yankees, The Red Sox and The Rays; The Blue Jays just cant compete. The Blue Jays should continue to grow their own talent and maybe in the future another Joe Carter in the future.

The St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals won the National League wildcard by making the playoffs on the last day of the season. They went on to prove everyone wrong and win The World Series.

A major reason why everyone underrated The Cardinals was the loss of Adam Wainwright. Wainwright was injured in spring training and missed the entire year. In 2010 Wainwright had a 2.42 ERA and 230 innings. In 2009 Wainwright had a 2.63 ERA over 233 innings. As you can see Wainwright has established a name for himself. Another pitcher on The Cardinals is Chris Carpenter. Carpenter showed us that he can pitch at the age of 36 by getting a 3.45 ERA over 237 innings. On the Opposite side of the age spectrum is Jamie Garcia. Garcia had a 3.54 ERA over 194 innings for The Cardinals in 2011. He is only 25.

Now everyone is saying the Cardinals suck without Pujols. They don't suck, but they aren't as good. Pujols played 11 seasons with The Cardinals picking up 455 home runs, a .420 on base percentage, and 1329 RBI's. He is considered one of the greatest hitters of all time and he just signed a 10  year contract with The Angels.

The Cardinals still have some pop in their lineup with Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman. Their stats are the following:

Lance Berkman: 145 games, 31 HR, 94 RBI, .412 OBP
Matt Holliday: 124 games, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .388 OBP
Carlos Beltran: 142 games, 22 HR, 84 RBI, .385 OBP

The Cardinals have other guys who can hit too. Yadiar Molina, David Freeze, and Rafael Furcal can get on base as well.

The Cardinals will have a chance for the division title, but they will have to patch up their only weakness: The bullpen. I don't know how they managed to win a world series without a decent bullpen. If the bullpen can preform like last year The Cardinals have a good shot at at least a wildcard.

The Atlanta Braves

The Braves failed to make the playoffs on the final day of the 2011 season. They had a record of 89-73 in 2011. They are hoping to make the playoffs this year, but they will have to fight for it.

The Braves were always notorious for having good pitching. Tim Hudson is still proving that he can pitch at the age of 35. In 2011 Hudson finished with 16 wins and a 3.22 ERA over 215 innings. Jair Jurrjens had a 13-6 record with a 2.96 ERA over  152 innings. Tommy Hanson is 25 years old and had 11 wins with a 3.60 ERA and 130 innings. Brandon Beachy pitched 141 innings with a 3.68 ERA. Derek Lowe went to the Indians, so he will probably be replaced by Mike Minor or top prospect Julio Teheran.

The bullpen for The Braves is very strong. Craig Kimbrel is the closer and he had 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA with 127 strikeouts. Jonny Venters is the left handed set up man for The Braves. He had a 1.84 ERA with 96 strikeouts. Eric O'Flaherty had a 0.98 ERA over 73.2 innings pitched. Peter Moylan was injured or most of the season, but the side arm pitcher has a career 2.60 ERA.

Freddie Freeman had a break out rookie year. He had a .346 OBP with 21 home runs and 76 RBI's. Chipper Jones played 126 games, but still managed to get a 123 OPS+, which is good for a guy his age. Micheal Bourn is a textbook example of great lead off hitter. He had a respectable OBP of .349 and a SLG of .386. For a lead off hitter you want those 2 numbers to be close to each other. Bourn also has speed, that's always good to have as a lead off hitter. This season will be Brian McCann's break out season. McCann has consistently been an all star and hit well as a catcher, but he will break through this season and emerge as a superstar.

Jason Heyward will have to return to the hitter he was in 2010. In 2011 He wasn't making contact and wasn't getting on base. If he can hit 20+ home runs along with Freeman, McCann, and Jones The Braves can have a fighting chance for the wildcard. It is likely that there will be a second wildcard this year I think The Braves will win the second wildcard.

The Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox failed make the playoffs on the last day of the 2011 season. They had a record of 90-72 and this off season they fired Terry Francona and hired Bobby Valentine as manager.

The Red Sox have one of the best line ups in baseball. The following players are notable:

Dustin Pedroia: .387 OBP, 21 HR, 91 RBI, 26 SB
Jacoby Ellsbury: .376 OBP, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB
Adrian Gonzalez: .410 OBP, 27 HR, 117 RBI, .548 SLG
David Ortiz: .398 OBP, 29 HR, 96 RBI, .554 SLG
Kevin Youkilis(120 games): .373 OBP, 17 HR, 80 RBI, .459 SLG

The preceding are 5 notable offensive players on The Red Sox. If they can repeat their 2011 season they can definitely continue to be one of the best lineups in baseball. A mistake they made was keeping Ellsbury as the lead off hitter. He hit way to many home runs to be leading off. If he had guys on base he would have many more RBI's. Another thing that has to go right for The Red Sox is Carl Crawford. Crawford had the worst years of his career. Only having an on base percentage of .289 is unacceptable for a guy who gets paid 142 million dollars.

The other part of The Red Sox's team is the rotation. Josh Beckett had a great year, but it was one great year. He is not going to repeat something like that. His ERA will bounce back to around 3.50 which is lower than his career average of 3.84. Jon Lester is a force to be reckoned with. I see Lester as one of the games' top left handed pitchers. He is not in the same pack as Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, but a 3.37 ERA over his past 3 seasons puts him in a category with Cole Hamels and David Price.

One big mistake I think The Red Sox are making is putting Daniel Bard in the starting rotation. Bard was a fireman out of the bullpen for The Red Sox. He would come in the 7th or 8th inning and throw 97-99 MPH fastballs and a hard slider. Going to the rotation will drop his velocity and without having a good third pitch the left handed sluggers will wait on the slider. The Yankees did this with Joba Chamberlain, The Rangers are doing it with Neftali Feliz and now The Red Sox are doing it with Daniel Bard. I am extremely against taking a good bullpen guy and putting him in the rotation. It messes up their whole mind set.

The Red Sox did sign Mark Malencen and traded for Andrew Bailey. Bailey has a 2.07 ERA over 3 years in Oakland. He was a good choice as Papelbon's replacement. Melancon had a 2.78 ERA over 74 innings for The Astros in 2011. He would fit nicely into the bullpen, but it think it would be better if the set up guys were Bard and Melancon.

The Red Sox have a nice lineup, 2 above average starters and the back end of the bullpen is pretty good. They have a new manager and are hoping to make the playoffs this year. They do not want to repeat the mess that happened in September of 2011. I think The Red Sox will win the wild card, but it will be close to compete with the Angels and Rangers. One of these three teams will win the wild card.

The Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles finished the 2011 season with a record of 69-93. If they were in a different division their record would have been better, but they are still in the AL East.

The Orioles have plenty of young pitching. Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, and Brad Bergeson are some notable young starters for The Orioles.  Bergeson quite ins't at the major league level but he has potential to be, he is only 26 years old. Britton is 24 years old and pitched to a 4.61 ERA over 154 innings in 2011. Tillman is only 23 and he pitched to a 5.52 ERA over 62 innings for The Orioles in 2011. All three of these pitchers have the potential to be great. Jeremy Guthrie would have been discussed, but he was traded to The Rockies.

The Orioles have plenty of offensive players, but none of MVP or All-Star caliber. Nick Markakis has consistently played the entire season while having an on base percentage of .350 or greater and 15-20 home runs. Markakis is The Orioles best player. Brian Roberts has been injured and only played 98 games over the past 2 seasons. He is great at getting on base and a sneaky base stealer. If Roberts can come back from injury and play most of the season, the Orioles might be able to compete. Mark Reynolds has a certain motto associated with himself. It is "Swing hard in case you hit it." He has led the league in strikeouts the past 4 seasons, but has hit 141 home runs over his past 4 seasons.

As for the Orioles young offensive players; they have Matt Wieters and Adam Jones. Matt Wieters is 25 years old and played 132 games as the catcher for The Orioles. Over 139 total games, he had a .328 on base percentage, 22 home runs, and .450 slugging percentage. Those numbers are pretty good for a catcher. As for Adam Jones; The Orioles have been waiting for him to emerge as a super star. In 2011 he hit 25 home runs, but his on base percentage has been hovering around .330 over the past 3 seasons. Adam Jones is 26 and if this could be his break out year The Orioles may finish over .500.

Everything has to go right for The Orioles to finish over .500 on the season and a miracle will have to happen for them to make it to the playoffs. They will be competing with The Blue Jays for 4th place in The AL East.

 

The Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies finished the 2011 with the best record in the MLB with a 102-60 record. They have the best pitching rotation in the major leagues and are looking to repeat their 2011 season.

The rotation is incredible. Looking at the stats is all you have to do. The pitching rotation is going to be the following:

Roy Halladay: 19-6, 2.35 ERA, 233 IP, 220 K
Cliff Lee: 17-8, 2.40 ERA, 232 IP, 238 K
Cole Hamels: 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 216 IP, 194 K
Vance Worley: 11-3, 3.01 ERA, 131 IP, 119 K

I think the stats speak for themselves. The problem for The Phillies is the bullpen. I think it was a very stupid move to let Ryan Madson sign with the Reds and sign Jonathon Papelbon to The Phillies. Madson is 31 years old and had 2.37 ERA in 2011 and a 2.55 ERA in 2010. Papelbon is 31 as well, but he has a fluctuated ERA. In 2011 he had a 2.94 ERA and in 2010 he had  a 3.90 ERA. I believe Madson would be a lot better in the role of closer.

The Phillies have an old team and that causes them to play fewer games than a younger player. In 2011 the following players played a low number of games: Chase Utley (103), Placido Polanco (122), and Jimmy Rollins inst getting younger (88 in 2010) and on a steep decline. The Phillies desperately need a right handed bat in their line up. In 2011 they traded for Hunter Pence who was very effective but he alone is not enough. They signed Jim Thome to play first base until Ryan Howard comes back from injury in May or June. The slugger is destined for the Hall of Fame, but it wont compare to the offense they would receive from Howard.

I believe the inconsistency and frequently injured players The Phillies have in their lineup will counteract the fantastic starting pitching they have. With a malnourished bullpen and a receding offense, I think they will have a tough time competing with the young and powerful Marlins. The NL East is going to be a close division with The Phillies, The Marlins, and The Braves.

The Oakland Athletics

The Athletics finished with a record of 74-88, but that is bound to go down for the 2012 season. Billy Bean is up to something in Oakland, we just can't figure it out yet.

Over the 2011-2012 off season The Athletics traded Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey. In return they received a total of 16 prospects and players. All three of these pitchers are young and have a lot of potential. The Athletics have begun rebuilding.

The Athletics did sign Cuban outfield prospect Yoennis Cespedes. Cespedes was playing in Cuba which is similar to a high AA league. In 2011 in that league he had a .424 on base percentage, 33 home runs, 99 RBI's and a .667 SLG in just under 500 plate appearances. He is ready for the MLB, scouts say, but who knows why he decided to sign with the Athletics when he had offers from The Marlins.

Another thing that The Athletics did was sign right handed starter Bartolo Colon. For the Yankees in 2011 Colon pitched to a 4.00 ERA over 164 innings. He is 38 years old and not getting any better. I think the Athletics signed him to just fill up the rotation.

The Athletics also signed Coco Crisp, but he wont make a big impact on the team. He is a center fielder and a lead off hitter. In 2011 he had a .314 on base percentage, making him a pretty bad lead off hitter. The 49 stolen bases mean nothing if he cant get on base. I would move Crisp to left and put Cespedes in center, but Coco wants to play center and he made that clear.

The Athletics are projected to finish in last place in 2012. The Athletics are trying to make a move to San Jose. That means a better stadium and maybe a bigger fan base.

The Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates finished the 2011 season with a 72-90 record. They don't seem to be making much progress in the off season, but they're chances of a winnings season may improve in 2012.

Yesterday The Pirates traded 2 young minor league players and $13 million in salary relief to The Yankees. In return The Pirates received veteran pitcher AJ Burnett. The Pirates are hoping to get better results over the remaining 2 years in Burnett's contract than the Yankees did. AJ is an innings eater; pitching close to 200 innings a season. Since the Pirates don't have very effective pitching AJ will be a big help.

The Pirates don't really have any notable offensive players besides Andrew Mccutchen. Mccutchen is only 25 and his statistical trends are looking good. He is a great defensive center fielder and with the offense he provides, he is great overall center fielder. Look at the positive progression of his stats:

2009: 108 games, .365 OBP, 12 HR, .471 SLG, 22 SB
2010: 154 games, .365 OBP, 16 HR, .449 SLG, 33 SB
2011: 158  games, .364 OBP, 23 HR, .456 SLG, 23 SB

Mccutchen has been very consistent and now the home runs are starting to enter his game. If the Pirates can get more players on base, Mccutchen can drive them in and win more games.

With the NL Central looking like the dullest division, The Pirates may have a chance to break that curse of 19 consecutive loosing seasons. All they need is a record of 81-81.

The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers finished the 2011 season with a record of 82-79. In 2011 they had a Cy Young award winner and a runner up in the MVP voting.

The Dodgers have a definite force in Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has been a dominant pitcher his past 3 seasons in the MLB. Since 2009 Kershaw has only pitched to sub 3.00 ERA's and over 9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. In 2011 he earned himself the National league Cy Young award with the following stats: 21 wins, 2.28 ERA, 233 IP, and 248 strikeouts. He won the pitching triple crown tied in one category with Ian Kennedy with 21 wins. Chad Billingsly used to be the ace pitcher for The Dodgers before Kershaw came on the scene. He had a 4.21 ERA in 2011 which is much higher than it should be. In 2008 he pitched to a 3.14 ERA over 200 innings. Billingsly is now 27, if he can return to the pitcher he should be The Dodgers will have a nice 1-2 combo.

The Dodgers also lost Hiroki Kuroda due to free agency. Kuroda signed with The Yankees after his best season. Kuroda pitched 202 innings with a 3.07 ERA and 161 strikeouts. He was the cap on The Dodgers rotation making the 1-2-3 combo of Kershaw, Billingsly and Kuroda, but now it looks like the Dodgers will have to do without.

After Ryan Braun being accused of performence enhancing drug usage I think Matt Kemp should have won the MVP. Kemp was 1 home run away from being into the 40-40 club. The 40-40 club is an elite list of players who have hit 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in as single season. Matt Kemp finished with 39 home runs, 126 RBI's, 40 stolen bases, a .399 on base percentage, and an 171 OPS+.

The Dodgers don't have many other notable offensive players. So you can see why they didn't make the playoffs. One notable player is Andre Ethier. Ethier gets injured often not playing more than 140 games  in 2010 and 2011. One thing he is good at is facing right handed pitching. In 2011 there was a right handed pitcher on the mound 74% of the time. Ethier had a .410 on base percentage vs right handed pitching and a .468 slugging percentage vs right handed pitching. Although he is neutralized by left handed pitching Ethier can bring a wallop to the offense 74% of time.  

Since The Dodgers have only 2 offensively dangerous players and 1 pitcher you can take for granted The Dodgers will have a rough time in 2012. It is highly unlikely that Kerhsaw or Kemp will repeat the great seasons they had in 2011, but if they do it; it won't bring The Dodgers to the playoffs.