The Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox failed make the playoffs on the last day of the 2011 season. They had a record of 90-72 and this off season they fired Terry Francona and hired Bobby Valentine as manager.

The Red Sox have one of the best line ups in baseball. The following players are notable:

Dustin Pedroia: .387 OBP, 21 HR, 91 RBI, 26 SB
Jacoby Ellsbury: .376 OBP, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB
Adrian Gonzalez: .410 OBP, 27 HR, 117 RBI, .548 SLG
David Ortiz: .398 OBP, 29 HR, 96 RBI, .554 SLG
Kevin Youkilis(120 games): .373 OBP, 17 HR, 80 RBI, .459 SLG

The preceding are 5 notable offensive players on The Red Sox. If they can repeat their 2011 season they can definitely continue to be one of the best lineups in baseball. A mistake they made was keeping Ellsbury as the lead off hitter. He hit way to many home runs to be leading off. If he had guys on base he would have many more RBI's. Another thing that has to go right for The Red Sox is Carl Crawford. Crawford had the worst years of his career. Only having an on base percentage of .289 is unacceptable for a guy who gets paid 142 million dollars.

The other part of The Red Sox's team is the rotation. Josh Beckett had a great year, but it was one great year. He is not going to repeat something like that. His ERA will bounce back to around 3.50 which is lower than his career average of 3.84. Jon Lester is a force to be reckoned with. I see Lester as one of the games' top left handed pitchers. He is not in the same pack as Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, but a 3.37 ERA over his past 3 seasons puts him in a category with Cole Hamels and David Price.

One big mistake I think The Red Sox are making is putting Daniel Bard in the starting rotation. Bard was a fireman out of the bullpen for The Red Sox. He would come in the 7th or 8th inning and throw 97-99 MPH fastballs and a hard slider. Going to the rotation will drop his velocity and without having a good third pitch the left handed sluggers will wait on the slider. The Yankees did this with Joba Chamberlain, The Rangers are doing it with Neftali Feliz and now The Red Sox are doing it with Daniel Bard. I am extremely against taking a good bullpen guy and putting him in the rotation. It messes up their whole mind set.

The Red Sox did sign Mark Malencen and traded for Andrew Bailey. Bailey has a 2.07 ERA over 3 years in Oakland. He was a good choice as Papelbon's replacement. Melancon had a 2.78 ERA over 74 innings for The Astros in 2011. He would fit nicely into the bullpen, but it think it would be better if the set up guys were Bard and Melancon.

The Red Sox have a nice lineup, 2 above average starters and the back end of the bullpen is pretty good. They have a new manager and are hoping to make the playoffs this year. They do not want to repeat the mess that happened in September of 2011. I think The Red Sox will win the wild card, but it will be close to compete with the Angels and Rangers. One of these three teams will win the wild card.

The Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies finished the 2011 with the best record in the MLB with a 102-60 record. They have the best pitching rotation in the major leagues and are looking to repeat their 2011 season.

The rotation is incredible. Looking at the stats is all you have to do. The pitching rotation is going to be the following:

Roy Halladay: 19-6, 2.35 ERA, 233 IP, 220 K
Cliff Lee: 17-8, 2.40 ERA, 232 IP, 238 K
Cole Hamels: 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 216 IP, 194 K
Vance Worley: 11-3, 3.01 ERA, 131 IP, 119 K

I think the stats speak for themselves. The problem for The Phillies is the bullpen. I think it was a very stupid move to let Ryan Madson sign with the Reds and sign Jonathon Papelbon to The Phillies. Madson is 31 years old and had 2.37 ERA in 2011 and a 2.55 ERA in 2010. Papelbon is 31 as well, but he has a fluctuated ERA. In 2011 he had a 2.94 ERA and in 2010 he had  a 3.90 ERA. I believe Madson would be a lot better in the role of closer.

The Phillies have an old team and that causes them to play fewer games than a younger player. In 2011 the following players played a low number of games: Chase Utley (103), Placido Polanco (122), and Jimmy Rollins inst getting younger (88 in 2010) and on a steep decline. The Phillies desperately need a right handed bat in their line up. In 2011 they traded for Hunter Pence who was very effective but he alone is not enough. They signed Jim Thome to play first base until Ryan Howard comes back from injury in May or June. The slugger is destined for the Hall of Fame, but it wont compare to the offense they would receive from Howard.

I believe the inconsistency and frequently injured players The Phillies have in their lineup will counteract the fantastic starting pitching they have. With a malnourished bullpen and a receding offense, I think they will have a tough time competing with the young and powerful Marlins. The NL East is going to be a close division with The Phillies, The Marlins, and The Braves.