Showing posts with label Projection. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Projection. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

David Wright

David Wright is the current face of The Mets' franchise. He has played third base for The Mets since 2004. His career peeked in 2007 and 2008 when he hit 30 and 33 home runs respectively. In 2007 he had a .416 on base percentage and in 2008 he had a .390 on base percentage. David Wright was a huge offensive threat, but he can't make the whole team.

In 2009 The Mets moved into their new ballpark Citi Field. It is a lot bigger than Shea Stadium, but personally I have to say it is a lot nicer too. I have visited Shea Stadium and Citi Field and Citi Field is a lot nicer for the fans and for the players.

In 2009 Wright played his first full season at Citi Field and only hit 5 home runs in 70 games at Citi Field. His strike out percentage rocketed up and his walk percentage dropped. This shows that he was trying to hit the ball further. The average distance of the wall in Shea Stadium was 367 feet in Citi Field it was 374 feet. 7 feet may not make much of a difference, but the odd dimensions of Citi Field can have a physical and physiological effect on a batter.

The walls in Citi Field have been moved closer for the 2012 season. The average distance of the wall will now be 369 feet. The most significant change is the left center gap which is going from 371 feet to 358 feet. This is important because a large portion of Wright's home runs are hit to left field and left-center field.

The whole thing may just be a physiological trick, but the walls are technically closer. The dimensions of Citi Field are similar to those of Shea Stadium and that means when David Wright is healthy he will be playing gold glove caliber third base and hitting 20-30 home runs again.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Prince Fielder

Prince Fielder spent his last 7 seasons playing in Miller Park in Milwaukee. In 2012 Prince Fielder will be playing for the Tigers until 2021. Fielder will be 28 in may and has 230 home runs and a career .390 on base percentage to his name. Lets see how a change in ball park will fare for Prince Fielder.

Miller Park is actually bigger than Comerica Park to right field. The dimensions of Miller Park from left field to right field are the following: 344, 371, 400, 374, 345. In Comerica Park the dimensions from right to left are the following: 345, 370, 420, 365, 330. The right field line and the right field power alley are significantly closer for Fielder so his power numbers may go up.

Fielder gets hits to all fields, but 52% of his home runs were hit to right field. Fielder played in every game last year and hit 24 home runs at Miller Park so that means he hit about 12 home runs to right field in Miller Park.With the walls being about 10-15 feet closer in right field, when Fielder pulls the fly out on the track it will now be gone. Fielder did hit 10 home runs to center field, so that is 26% of his home runs. Center field is 20 feet deeper in Comerica Park so Fielder may try to pull the ball more in the upcoming seasons.

The other thing that people often look over when evaluating a player switching leagues is the ballparks he will be playing in on the road. Fenway Park is 302 feet to the right field foul pole, Yankee Stadium is 314 feet to the right field foul pole, Camden Yards is 318 to the score board in right field, in the Rogers Centre its 328 feet to right field and in Tropicana Field it is 322 feet to right field. All the ballparks in the American League East are small and so when Fielder and the Tigers are on the road and playing east coast teams watch out.

The average dimensions to right field and right center in the National League are 333 feet and 380 feet respectively and in the American League they are 324 and 372 respectively. The average height of the fences are smaller as well. In the American League the fences are 1 foot shorter than in the National League. Its not a big difference, but there is one. These are just the little things that factor into Fielder having a great 2012 season. You can expect at least 40-45 home runs from him.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols has joined The Angels for the 2012 season and will be playing there until 2022. He is projected to have a regular Albert Pujols season. Of course that stands for great. He is porjected to hit 41 home runs and 121 RBI's with a .408 on base percentage. Although he is destined for greatness every year lets see how he will fare in 2012 in a new ball park.

In order from left field to right field the dimensions of Angel Stadium  are 330, 387, 400, 370, 330 feet. Pujols has an average of 40 home runs a year through the first 11 seasons of his career. He played half of his games at Busch Stadium. The dimensions of Busch Stadium are as follows from left field to right field: 330, 372, 402, 375, 330 feet. Busch Stadium is smaller to left field and Angel Stadium is smaller to right field.

Pujols had 37 home runs in 2011 and only 3 of them were to right field. As for the other home runs 11 went to center field and 23 went to left. It is only a 15 foot differnce between the left-center gaps in Busch Stadium and Angel Stadium, but it could take away 3-4 home runs from Pujols. You can see an increase of doubles for Pujols in 2012.

Additionally Pujols had

a fly ball percentage of about 37% for 2011. That is great for a guy who is supposed to drive in RBI's. He only strikes out 9.2% of the time, so when a runner is on third and you need him to score, it would be great if Pujols is batting.

Although Pujols' fly balls go to left field his line drives go to right field. He can turn most of those around for a double. Pujols will probably have a great year in 2012 especially facing American League pitching. He has to adjust to the new pitchers, but he did go 2-3 with a RBI double in his first spring traingin game yesterday.  

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

The Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians are going to have some trouble trying to keep up with The Detroit Tigers in the American League Central. Although The Tigers appear to have already locked up the division title The Indians may have a chance of competing.

Just recently we found out that the pitcher Fausto Carmona is three years older than he claims and has a different name. Maybe if the Indians can take his inconsistent pitching and his seven million dollar contract off the team, it will free up room for a better player.

The Indians have a pretty decent pitching staff, above average if you will say. During the 2011 season they traded for Ubaldo Jimenez. Although he wasn't as good as The Indians expected he may have a bounce back season for 2012. Ubaldo will not put up the same numbers he did with the Rockies in 2010, but anything close to that will be a great advantage for The Indians. Lets not forget about the young pitcher Justin Masterson, who also proved he can pitched at the big league level. Masterson is 26 years old and posted a 3.21 ERA for the 2011 season. The Indians also have starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Derek Lowe. Lowe will be 39 in 2012. Although he can pitch close to 200 innings a year, his ERA has been elevated over the past few seasons. As for Josh Tomlin, he is young and still has something to prove at the age of 26. He posted a 4.25 ERA over 165 innings in 2011.

The Indians have a decent offense that can provide a comfortable amount of runs for the pitcher. When Shin Soo Choo, Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana are healthy The Indians have a powerful offense. If they can add one more bat to their lineup The Tigers may have something to worry about.