Justin Upton

The Winter Meetings started today and the Braves' left fielder will definitely be a hot topic of discussion. The Braves already traded slick fielding outfielder Jason Heyward in a deal for Shelby Miller, but signed another great outfielder in Nick Markakis. Justin Upton's name has been fluttered around in trade discussions so far this off season. Many thought the Braves were in on the Yasmany Tomas sweepstakes and if they signed the Cuban slugger Justin Upton would be on the move. The Diamondbacks ended up signing Tomas, so now the question for the Braves is whether or not to trade Justin Upton.

Justin Upton will be a free agent after the 2015 season and will be just 28 years old next season. Upton was already traded once (by the Diamondbacks after the 2012 season), and the Braves definitely won the trade. Being one of the best young players in the game, Upton can fetch a large payout in a trade and will be in store for a large pay day whether it be through an extension or free agency.  

Since 2011 Upton has been constantly healthy playing in at least 149 games each season, and has hit for both power and average. His stolen base total has decrease dramatically since being traded to the Braves, but his other statistics have remained consistent except for strikeout percentage. In his final two seasons with the Diamondbacks Upton had a strikeout percentage of 19%. In the two seasons he has spent with the Braves his strikeout percentage has gone up to 26%, which means he is striking out on average once per game.

Besides the problem with the strike outs, Justin Upton can be very valuable to a team seeking a powerful bat. His slashline over the last three seasons is .271/.350/.462 equating to an OPS+ of 122. The Braves are very short on pitching, but they already traded one of their young outfielders, would they be willing to trade another? One theory that has been tossed around is using Evan Gattis in left field while letting catching prospect Christian Bethancourt get a chance behind the plate, but the Braves would definitely miss Upton's power.

Possible landing spots for Upton could be Seattle, Baltimore, San Francsico, and San Diego. The Braves will be seeking young pitchers who are ready or already established at a Major League level. The Mariners and Orioles have these pitchers in the form of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Kevin Gausman. The only other outfield sluggers left on the market are Melky Cabrera, Matt Kemp,  Alex Rios, and a defensively challenged Micheal Morse. As more names come off the board, Upton will be in higher demand.
 

Atlanta Braves

The Braves went on an extension frenzy this off season. They extended Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, and Julio Teheran. Although they extended plenty of players they caught bad news in the past few weeks with word that Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy may be needing Tommy John Surgery. The Braves still have a good team in place for the 2014 season regardless of their losses.

The young lineup will still be supported by the powerful core of the Heyward, Upton, and Freeman 3-4-5 combo. They loss Brian McCann to free agency when he signed with the New York Yankees, but the emergence of Evan Gattis as a major power threat nullified the loss. Here is how I would make the lineup for the Braves in 2014.

1. R. Simmons      SS 87 OPS+
2. R. Johnson       3B 121 OPS+
3. L. Heyward      RF 111 OPS+
4. R. J. Upton      LF 122 OPS+
5. L. Freeman      1B 144 OPS+
6. R. Gattis           C 106 OPS+
7. R. Uggla          2B 83 OPS+
8. R. B. Upton     CF 53 OPS+

Ervin Santana

The pitching rotation for the Braves had a late addition when Kris Medlen's health was in jeopardy. With the news that he might and most probably will require Tommy John surgery the Braves went out to acquire the best remaining free agent pitcher on the market, Ervin Santana. The Braves will have a new look possibly without Medlen and Beachy, but here is how it may look.

1. L. Mike Minor     120 ERA+
2. R. Julio Teheran   121 ERA+
3. R. Ervin Santana   127 ERA+
4. R. Gavin Floyd      84 ERA+
5. L. Alex Wood       124 ERA+ 11 starts

*R. Kris Medlen 124 ERA+
*R. Brandon Beachy 87 ERA+

The bullpen is off course anchored by the best closer in the game, Craig Kimbel who will be shining with his new extension. Also in the bullpen is former Angel Jordan Walden and Johnny Venters making for a good late inning lefty-righty combination. The other guys in the pen are really up in the air.

Braves Extend Freddie Freeman

Another free agent has agreed to a $100+ Million deal. That player would be Freddie Freeman as the Braves inked Freeman to an 8 year $125 Million deal. The deal will carry Freeman through his age 33 season, more importantly right through his prime years of 27-32.

Freeman's first two seasons are statistically better than
Harper's first two seasons.  

This deal is great for the Atlanta Braves as Freeman obviously took a hometown discount. With the average annual salary of the deal being $15.625 Million. Freeman has put up numbers in recent years that would have garnered him much more money on the open market. Viewing recent trends he would easily have received an average annual salary of $20 Million or more.

Freeman has 3 complete seasons under his belt and over that span he has a .287/.361/.468 slashline which equates to a 124 OPS+. In his rookie year Freeman hit 21 home runs with an on base percentage of .346. In his sophomore year his batting average dropped significantly but his on base percentage remained about the same at .340. This shows that he became more patient at the plate taking many more walks, he also hit 23 home runs in his sophomore year. The third year of Freeman's career really put him on the map where he hit 23 home runs again proving consistently and further improving his on base percentage to .396.  

It has been observed that in the first few years of a player's career power numbers seem to be lower. Freeman has been more than consistent these past 3 seasons and has shown more than enough signs of improvement. With age comes power, he is more disciplined at the plate, taking a walk when he gets it, and in the upcoming seasons he will hit for power. Freeman will have another great season in 2014 and this extension is more than worth it. Expect Freeman's first 30 home run season in 2014. The Braves scored a bargain.

Up Upton and Away

Justin Upton and the red hot Atlanta Braves are off to a rocketing start. Bryce Harper and the Nationals were my pick and the pick of many others to win the National League East in 2013, but it is the Braves' star left fielder leading the first place Braves.

Whatever you can do I can do better. 

With his older brother, BJ, to his left this 25 year old outfielder is doing much more than the Braves would have hoped for when they traded for him this off season. In 2012 with the Arizona Diamond Backs Justin Upton hit a respectable 17 home runs in 150 games played. In 2013 he has already crushed 11 homers in just 21 games. For Upton the sky is the limit, but he is heading for the sun, because they don't come much hotter than he is right now.

The power for Justin is very noticeable, but it isn't the only thing to be impressed about. About one-eighth into the season Justin Upton is playing considerably better defense after shifting to left field from right field to accommodate slugger Jason Heyward. Also Justin has stolen 3 bases in 3 attempts in 2013. You can pencil Justin Upton as an early favorite for National League MVP especially if the Braves win the division.

The older of the two Upton brothers is in a terrible slump to begin the season. BJ has blasted 3 dingers thus far, but his on base percentage is a horrific .229. The speed demon has played a fantastic center field for the Braves but has stole the equivalent amount of bases, three and has been caught once. BJ signed with the Braves as a free agent and will be with the club for the next 5 years. Being only 28 years old his value is still high and he is expected to do better, but you can bet he is the less talented of the Upton brothers.

In one game against the Chicago Cubs BJ Upton hit a home run to tie the game and then a few batters later Justin Upton hit another home run to win the game. In Colorado the two brothers hit back to back jacks, it really is a competition between the two of them. You can expect stories about the Upton brothers like that for the next few years.

The BRAVE and ROYAL family

The Braves made it to the playoffs, but were eliminated in a heartbreaking wildcard game. We will always remember the first wild card game as "The Infield Fly Game" and not Chipper's final game. The Royals on the other hand finished in third place and wanted to improve on that in 2013.

Chipper Jones leaves Turner Field to the Uptons

With Chipper Jones' departure the Braves made some very nice upgrades and changes. In the lineup they lost the speed demon of Michael Bourn but added the young and talented BJ Upton to man center field. They also traded away prospect Randal Delgado and utility man Martin Prado to get Chris Johnson and the other Upton, Justin. Here is what the revenge seeking Braves lineup will look like in 2013:

1. R. B. Upton CF   109 OPS+
2. R. Simmons SS     101 OPS+
3. L. Heyward RF    117 OPS+
4. R. J. Upton LF     107 OPS+
5. L. Freeman 1B     113 OPS+
6. R. Uggla 2B          98 OPS+
7. L. McCann C        87 OPS+
8. R. Johnson 3B      115 OPS+

The pitching rotation for the Braves is a bit weaker without Tommy Hanson, but it is still anchored by Tim Hudson and he has some nice support behind him. Kris Medlen came on the scene in 2012 and blew everyone away. The 5th spot may be a battle between Teheran and Minor, but for now I will just slot one of them in.

1. R. Tim Hudson 3.62 ERA
2. R. Kris Medlen 1.57 ERA
3. R. Brandon Beachy *2.00 ERA *81 IP
4. L. Paul Maholm 3.67 ERA
5. L. Mike Minor 4.12 ERA

The Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball. With the flame throwing right handed closer, Craig Kimbrel coming in the 9th inning. They also acquired young hard throwing rich hander Jordan Walden. Also in the bullpen are lefties Johnny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty and right hander Christian Martinez who should repeat good years.

I project 92 wins for the Braves in 2013

Billy Butler, The king of the Royal monarchy tips his crown to
the fans

The Royals are planning on contesting the Tigers for the American League Central in 2013. They made some bug improvements to their team and should not be taken lightly in the upcoming season.

The young Royal lineup will have all of its pieces healthy for 2013 and should produce fairly well. Here is how it may look:

1. R. Escobar SS     98 OPS+
2. R. Cain CF          100 OPS+
3. L. Gordon LF      125 OPS+
4. R. Butler DH        140 OPS+
5. L. Hosmer 1B      82 OPS+
6. R. Perez C           117 OPS+
7. L. Moustakas 3B  93 OPS+
8. R. Francoeur RF   81 OPS+
9. L. Getz 2B            85 OPS

The major over hall for the Royals was the starting rotation. They added the big name, Big Game James Sheilds. The also added Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie (mid season), and Wade Davis. This rotation is a great improvement for the Royals, here is how it should look:

1. R. James Shields 3.52 ERA
2. R. Jeremy Guthrie 4.76 ERA
3. R. Ervin Santana 5.16 ERA
4. R. Wade Davis *2.43 ERA *As reliever
5. L. Bruce Chen 5.07 ERA

The Royals have an excess of starters so you can assume the ones who don't make the rotation will either be put in the bullpen or the minor leagues. Speaking of the bullpen, closer Greg Holland had a pretty good year in 2012 and will like to repeat it in 2013. The other names in the bullpen are lefty Tim Collins, and righty Aaron Crow. An addition like Francisco Rodriguez or a gamble with Jose Valverde would be a good addition for the Royals.

I project 84 wins for the Royals in 2013.

A Long Way to Travel

Ichiro had a really far way to travel last night when he heard he was traded to New York. He had to make a very long trip to the other dugout. Ichiro was acquired by the Yankees in exchange for the two minor league pitchers DJ Mitchell and Danny Farquhar. Ichiro will bring an aspect that the Yankees haven't had this year; speed. The injury to Brett Gardner has left the bases basically motionless. Ichiro is batting just .261/.288/.352 this season, but his defense is a definite upgrade over Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones.

Detroit and Miami completed a trade yesterday as well. Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez are going to Detroit in exchange for Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly, and Brian Flynn. Infante will make a big difference for the Tigers, because their production from second base has been terrible this season. Infrante is hitting .287/.312/.442 this season. Sanchez will make the pitching rotation more stable after Verlander. Sanchez has a 3.94 ERA with 5 wins, but that is result of the Marlins offense.

A trade for Dempster was leaked yesterday before it was official. The rumors say that Dempster will go to Atlanta for young pitcher Randall Delgado. Dempster tweeted that he had not yet been traded, but it is very likely. Dempster will be huge addition to the Braves and keep them in competition with the Nationals.

The Atlanta Braves

The Braves failed to make the playoffs on the final day of the 2011 season. They had a record of 89-73 in 2011. They are hoping to make the playoffs this year, but they will have to fight for it.

The Braves were always notorious for having good pitching. Tim Hudson is still proving that he can pitch at the age of 35. In 2011 Hudson finished with 16 wins and a 3.22 ERA over 215 innings. Jair Jurrjens had a 13-6 record with a 2.96 ERA over  152 innings. Tommy Hanson is 25 years old and had 11 wins with a 3.60 ERA and 130 innings. Brandon Beachy pitched 141 innings with a 3.68 ERA. Derek Lowe went to the Indians, so he will probably be replaced by Mike Minor or top prospect Julio Teheran.

The bullpen for The Braves is very strong. Craig Kimbrel is the closer and he had 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA with 127 strikeouts. Jonny Venters is the left handed set up man for The Braves. He had a 1.84 ERA with 96 strikeouts. Eric O'Flaherty had a 0.98 ERA over 73.2 innings pitched. Peter Moylan was injured or most of the season, but the side arm pitcher has a career 2.60 ERA.

Freddie Freeman had a break out rookie year. He had a .346 OBP with 21 home runs and 76 RBI's. Chipper Jones played 126 games, but still managed to get a 123 OPS+, which is good for a guy his age. Micheal Bourn is a textbook example of great lead off hitter. He had a respectable OBP of .349 and a SLG of .386. For a lead off hitter you want those 2 numbers to be close to each other. Bourn also has speed, that's always good to have as a lead off hitter. This season will be Brian McCann's break out season. McCann has consistently been an all star and hit well as a catcher, but he will break through this season and emerge as a superstar.

Jason Heyward will have to return to the hitter he was in 2010. In 2011 He wasn't making contact and wasn't getting on base. If he can hit 20+ home runs along with Freeman, McCann, and Jones The Braves can have a fighting chance for the wildcard. It is likely that there will be a second wildcard this year I think The Braves will win the second wildcard.