Is The Price Right?

The Tampa Bay Rays have expressed interest in trading David Price. We all know that he will be traded, the question is when, and to who? The Rays simply can't afford to pay David Price through his final year of arbitration. Price's salary for the 2014 season is already at $14 Million and should move up to at least $18 Million for the next season. When he hits free agency, you can bet the former Cy Young Award winner will sign a contract similar to that of CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Justin Verlander; establishing himself as one of the most elite starters in the game.

David Price

Price is a three time All Star and a Cy Young Award winner who will be turning 29 in August of this year. The home grown lefty found his groove in just his second full season in 2010 with a 19-6 record, a 2.72 ERA, and 188 strikeouts in 208.2 innings pitched. The following season his ERA shot up .77 points to a still respectable 3.49 ERA. He had a 12-13 record with 218 strikeouts in 224.1 innings pitched. 2012 was the season where Price won the American League Cy Young Award and he earned it. He brought he ERA down .93 runs to 2.56, while sporting a 20-5 record and striking out 205 in 211 innings pitched. In 2013 Price started off terribly with a 5.24 ERA in 9 starts, which can be connected to his first major injury, a tricep strain. He would go on to pitch a good season with a 3.33 ERA, 151 strikeouts, and a 10-8 record in 186.2 innings pitched.

Price usually finishes his seasons strong, but in 2014 he is already having a pretty nice season. With a 3.81 ERA and a league leading 133 strikeouts in 115.2 innings pitched Price is going to be a hot commodity. He has vocalized that he wants to be on a winning team, and the Rays have made it clear that they will be making trades at the deadline. The Rays also have several other pieces that can help a team such as Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist, maybe even newly acquired Grant Balfour if he can turn his season around.

James Shields

There has been some talk that Price is on the decline, but I believe his stuff is good enough to pitch through a velocity decline. In 2010 his average fastball velocity was 95.3, then 94.7 in 2011, and 95.5 in 2012. In 2013 he had a spike in ERA from his Cy Young season and a tricep injury, which could correlate to his 93.4 average fastball velocity. In 2014 his average fastball velocity is at 93.3. Its only a 2 mph difference, but if the trend continues like it did with CC Sabathia, trading for Price and signing him to a long extension could be problematic.

The Rays have said they want a pitcher who is close to Major League ready and at least another good prospect, similar to the James Shields trade. The Kansas City Royals gave up their top prospect, Wil Myers, and their top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi for Shields who has worked out well for them, but Price is in an entirely different class. It will take a big bundle of prospects to trade Price at the trade deadline, and a desperate team may do it.

The Rays do not have much catching depth and do not have great catching prospects in the minors. Jose Molina and Ryan Hannigan are not getting the job done. It would not be crazy to the Rays to ask for a young catcher or a good catching prospect in the a trade.

Besides a pitching prospect and a catching prospect the Rays need infield depth. Ben Zobrist has been slightly fluttered around in trade discussions, and he is a very fine player. James Loney is not the best offensive player, and Yunel Escobar was never considered a great player. The Rays may want an infielder whether it be a shortstop, a second baseman, or a first baseman.

Mike Zunino 

The most suitable team I can see trading for Price is the Seattle Mariners. They have all the excess pieces and the prospects. By adding Price to the Mariners, it would give them one of the strongest rotations in the MLB. They would have to part with their starting catcher, but also one of their highest prospects Mike Zunino. They also have Nick Franklin who can play just about anywhere, since he lost his job to Robinson Cano. Finally they can include Justin Smoak in the deal, but the pitcher is going to be the tricky part. The Rays will almost undoubtedly ask for Taijuan Walker, which the Mariners already expressed they will not trade him. Suppliments to Walker may be Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Hultzen, or Danny Farquhar.

My pick for Price is to go to the Mariners and contend with the Athletics down the stretch, but Price may also find a home in St. Louis, Anaheim, New York, Toronto, Cincinnati
, or San Francisco.

The Seattle Mariners

The Mariners made one of the biggest headlines of the off season by signing Robinson Cano to a mega contact of 10 years $240 Million. The addition of Cano changed the entire team for the Mariners. Now with second base open they can trade Nick Franklin for a pitcher or even an outfielder.

Other additions besides Robsinson Cano include Willie Blomquist, Corey Hart, and Logan Morrison. The Mariners should really consider signing Kendrys Morales, the best hitter still on the market, to get some protection for Cano. Jesus Montero was supposed to be the big hitter for the Mariners but he did not come through and Mariners GM said he has "no expectations" for Montero. Here is how the lineup for the Mariners may look in 2014.

1. L. Dustin Ackley CF 90 OPS+
2. S. Willie Bloomquist SS 101 OPS+
3. L. Robinson Cano 2B 145 OPS+
4. R. Corey Hart 1B 120 OPS+ in 2012
5. L. Kyle Seager 3B 118 OPS+
6. S. Justin Smoak DH 113 OPS+
7. L. Michael Saunders RF 106 OPS+
8. R. Mike Zunnino C 78 ERA+
9. L. Logan Morrison LF 96 OPS+


The rotation for the Mariners is led by the King himself, Felix Hernandez. Hisashi Iwakuma was stud in 2013 season and Taijaun Walker will make the team from the get go this season. Here is how the rotation for the Mariners may stack up in 2014.

1. R. Felix Hernandez  121 ERA+
2. R. Hisashi Iwakuma 138 ERA+
3. R. Taijaun Walker    105 ERA+
4. R. Erasmo Ramirez   74 ERA+
5. R. Hector Noesi ?      57 ERA+
   

The big addition of the bullpen was Fernando Rodney and he will control the closer's position. Charlie Furbush, Danny Farquhar, and Tom Wilhilmson all take spots in the bullpen as well. The Mariners really need to improve their pitching to compete with the Rangers and Angels in 2014.

Mariners Sign Hart and Acquire Morrison

Corey Hart missed all of the 2013 season due to surgery on both of his knees, but Hart, with healthy knees, has been an All Star in the past. The Mariners jumped on the opportunity to acquire a player who has the potential to perform for cheep. Hart's deal is for one year worth $6 Million gaurenteed salary but it will be similar to Mike Napoli's deal which revolved heavily around incentives. I wouldn't be comfortable with Hart in the outfield with his knee injuries, so I would assume he would find his position at first base. From 2010-2012 Hart averaged 29 home runs and 83 RBIs with a .279 batting average and a .343 on base percentage. Hart will try to help the Mariners succeed in 2014, but their off season is done here.

The Mariners also continued their progress at the Winter Meetings today by acquiring first baseman and outfielder Logan Morrison in exchange for right handed pitcher Carter Capps. Morrison has not found much success in seasons after 2011 battling injuries and hitting just .236 with a .321 on base percentage. Morrison also saw a significant power decrease after 2011 when he hit 23 home runs. Morrison will be 26 years old in 2014, so he is a player hoping for a rebound season. The Mariners got him for cheep so a possibly if Hart fails Morrison will not.

We're Leaving. Cano Signs With The Mariners. Granderson Signs With The Mets. And More

Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano has signed a 10 year $240 Million deal with the Seattle Mariners. In the wake of the Yankees signing Jacoby Ellsbury they allowed Robinson Cano to leave. Depending on what other bats the Yankees add, the departure of Robinson Cano may not be so upsetting. With the addition of Brian McCann, Ellsbury, Kelly Johnons, and possibly another player the Yankees
will improve their production at several positions and lose production at only second base. The Yankees may explore trades for Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips, or other second baseman, or take a more conventional route and sign free agents such as Omar Infante or Stephan Drew. With the departure of Robinson Cano I would personally bat Ellsbury third and have Gardner lead off with a right handed bat with some speed behind him.

As for the Seattle Mariners, Cano is not the end of their off season acquisitions. With Robinson Cano being the lone star in their lineup the Mariners are looking to add another bat. That bat is speculated to be Choo, Napoli, Carlos Beltran, or Nelson Cruz. I speculate they could trade for Matt Kemp for a few prospects, but the Mariners are serious in their pursuit of starting pitcher David Price. It has been said that the Mariners are willing to make a package featuring pitching prospect Taijuan Walker and second baseman Nick Franklin. A pitching rotation with Felix Hernandez, David Price, and Hisashi Iwakuma may bring back memories of the Mariners from over a decade away. A trade including Mike Zunino and Dustin Ackley may be able to land Matt Kemp or another impact bat. Signing another free agent will especially put the Mariners in competition for 2014.

Curtis Granderson

Curtis Granderson has apparently reached agreement the New York Mets worth $60 Million over 4 years. Granderson will bring much needed power to the Mets lineup and provide protection for David Wright. Already in an outfield with Juan Lagares, Eric Young Jr, and Chris B. Young, Granderson will probably play a corner outfield position. In three full seasons with the Yankees Granderson hit 108 home runs, but in the three full seasons in Detroit he played prior to coming to the Yankees, he hit 75 home runs. Although hitting coach Kevin Long changed his swing Yankee Stadium dramatically changed his stats for the better. Playing in Citi Field Granderson's days of 40 home run seasons are gone.

After being non tendered by the Blue Jays JP Arencibia has found a new home in Texas. The Rangers were looking for a catcher and instead of going after McCann, Pierzynski, or Saltalamacchia, the Rangers to the cheaper alternative by giving Arencibia to a 1 year $2 Million deal.

The Astros continued their quest to improve for the 2014 season by signing starting pitcher Scott Feldman to a 3 year $30 Million deal. After a successful season between the Cubs and the Orioles posting a 3.86 ERA in 186 innings pitched. After trading Jordan Lyles in a deal for Dexter Fowler, Feldman fills a hole in the Astros rotation.

The Marlins continue their under the radar moves by signing shortstop but likely second baseman Rafael Furcal. He will 36 in 2014 and has a career .284 career batting average and a .267 batting average from 2010-2012. Furcal missed all of 2013, but is expected to rebound in 2014.

In a Land Far Far Away...

Seattle and Miami are geographically the two teams furthest apart from one another and their 2013 off seasons are far apart as well. The Miami Marlins traded almost all of their team while the Seattle Mariners are making a push to make the playoffs.

Beware the Giancarlo. He's Better than Mike

The Marlins were the favorite for the National League West in the beginning of 2012, but that idea quickly dissipated as they began trading parts of their team. As the season went on, more and more players were being traded and then in the off season the Marlins made the huge trade with the Blue Jays which upset people in the MLB front office and many team owners. It's not the first time the Marlins have done this, and it will definitely effect the decisions of the free agents in future years.

1. L. Pierre CF           95 OPS+
2. R. Polanco 3B        71 OPS+
3. R. Stanton RF        158 OPS+
4. L. Morrison 1B      91 OPS+
5. R. Mathis C           71 OPS+
6. L. Coghlan LF       81 OPS+ in 2011
7. R. Hechavarria SS 74 OPS+
8. L. Dobbs 2B         89 OPS+

The Marlins' pitching rotation was regarded as one of the better ones in baseball, but now it is not even average. I don't know who they may choose to be the 5th starter, but here is how it looks as of now:

1. R. Henderson Alverez 4.85 ERA
2. R. Rickey Nolasco 4.48 ERA
3. R. Nathan Eovaldi 4.30 ERA
4. R. Jacob Turner 4.42 ERA

In the bullpen is underrated reliever/closer Steve Cishek. He had an ERA around 2.60 for the past two seasons. He may be the next one to be traded. Also Ryan Webb, Jon Rauch, and Wade LeBlanc are in the pen for the Marlins.

I project 59 wins for the Marlins, possibly even fewer if they continue to trade parts of their team.

The Mariners made some beautiful additions to their team this off season, especially their lineup. The biggest acquisition was Michael Morse. He will play the outfield and most likely bat third in the upgraded Mariners lineup. The 3-4-5 combo for the Mariners all start with the letter 'M' comment what you think their nickname should be. Also the fences are coming in at Safeco Field. So all the players are happy to hear that.

1. R. Guttierez CF 107 OPS+
2. L. Ackley 2B     79 OPS+
3. R. Morse RF      112 OPS+
4. S. Morales DH   121 OPS+
5. R. Montero C     95 OPS+
6. L. Ibanez LF       104 OPS+
7. S. Smoak 1B      87 OPS+
8. R. Ryan SS         61 OPS+
9. R. Andino 3B      61 OPS+

The Royal Emblem

The top of the Mariner Monarch is now getting paid as if he were royalty. King Felix signed a huge contract extension, the greatest in value for any pitcher in fact. Felix Hernandez does deserve that money. He brings the fans into that ballpark and has already proved what he can do at such a young age. But there is more to the rotation, here they are:

1. R. Felix Hernandez 3.06 ERA
2. R. Hisashi Iwakuma 3.16 ERA
3. L. Joe Saunders 4.07 ERA
4. R. Blake Bleavan 4.43 ERA
5. R. Hector Noesi 5.82 ERA

Todd Wilhelmsen impressed everyone in 2012 as he took on the closer's role and pitched to a 2.50 ERA. The bullpen for the Mariners isn't too deep, but Charlie Furbush and an improved Oliver Perez are in the bullpen. If the Mariners begin to seem as if they might make the playoffs expect the bullpen to be the first thing they look to improve. Francisco Rodriguez would be a great fit for what the Mariners need right now.

I project 82 wins for the Mariners in 2013.

A Long Way to Travel

Ichiro had a really far way to travel last night when he heard he was traded to New York. He had to make a very long trip to the other dugout. Ichiro was acquired by the Yankees in exchange for the two minor league pitchers DJ Mitchell and Danny Farquhar. Ichiro will bring an aspect that the Yankees haven't had this year; speed. The injury to Brett Gardner has left the bases basically motionless. Ichiro is batting just .261/.288/.352 this season, but his defense is a definite upgrade over Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones.

Detroit and Miami completed a trade yesterday as well. Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez are going to Detroit in exchange for Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly, and Brian Flynn. Infante will make a big difference for the Tigers, because their production from second base has been terrible this season. Infrante is hitting .287/.312/.442 this season. Sanchez will make the pitching rotation more stable after Verlander. Sanchez has a 3.94 ERA with 5 wins, but that is result of the Marlins offense.

A trade for Dempster was leaked yesterday before it was official. The rumors say that Dempster will go to Atlanta for young pitcher Randall Delgado. Dempster tweeted that he had not yet been traded, but it is very likely. Dempster will be huge addition to the Braves and keep them in competition with the Nationals.

Old Timer in the Bronx

The 39 year old soon to be 40 year old Andy Pettitte pitched his first game since 2010 yesterday. He received the loss in the game against the Mariners. He went 6 1/3 innings and gave up 4 runs. Lets look at his Pitching Performance Value.

Pettitte got 19 outs and the average OPS that he got out was .648. To put that along side 7 hits, 3 walks and 4 runs Pettitte's PPV is 30.78. That is relativity low, but for a first start back in the major leagues it isn't too bad. As Pettitte gets more work and the nervous feelings go away Pettitte can be a legitimate force later  in the season. 

New York New York

So nice they named it twice. Last night the New York Yankees traded top prospect Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi for Micheal Pineda and Jose Campos. I am for this deal even though I would have much rather traded for the miraculous Felix Hernandez. Either way Pineda will be a definite addition to the Yankees' rotation.

Also shortly after the trade previously mentioned The Yankees signed free agent pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda pitched for the LA Dodgers this past season posting his best season yet.  This deal was worth 1 year 10.5 million.

To get back to the trade, this trade worked well for both teams. The Yankees received a hard throwing, young, right handed starting pitcher with a lot of promise. The Seattle Mariners received the ranked 3rd best prospect in all of baseball, Jesus Montero, who had an exceptionally excellent September. The Yankees needed starting pitching and the Mariners terrible offense needed a spark. I don't think the Mariners will be contending with the Angels and Rangers, but it will be nice to see how things stack up 5 years from now.

The Yankees already have one of the best lineups in the MLB. Now their pitching ranks pretty well also. They're rotation will shape up something like this: Sabathia, Nova, Kuroda, Pineda, Garcia which is pretty strong.

Now for The Yankees, they are left over with AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes. I believe The Yankees should keep one in the bullpen and trade one. I love to watch Burnett pitch, but it is agonizing sometimes. If I was general manager Brian Cashman I would see how AJ performs in spring training and if it ins't up to par, trade him to a team for a relief pitcher.  Phil Hughes has had experience in the bullpen before and he might add some depth. A friend of mine says Phil Hughes should be sent to AAA and recreate himself and come up later in the season.

Giving up Jesus Montero wasn't too hurtful. It was nice to get a little taste of what he can do in September, but the Yankees have Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez in the minor leagues, whom are also promising. But now the Yankees have interest in free agent slugger Carlos Pena, he would bat mostly against right handed pitches, and play DH. Andrew Jones will bat DH against left handed starters. Both can play the field to give every day players a "Half day off."

This 2012 season is shaping up well for The Yankees, for the 2013 season Cole Hamels and Matt Cain will be free agents. With one year deals to Garcia and Kuroda, the Yankees may land one of them.