Could The Astros Be the Story of the Year?

The Astros' record this season is 30-37; not impressive by any standards, but they are just five games back in the Wild Card. Although there are some pretty good teams ahead of them the Astros may be able to pull through and make the most unexpected playoff birth in history. They would have to overcome the Twins, Rangers, Indians, Yankees, Royals, Orioles, White Sox and Mariners. In 2013 the Astros finished with a 51-111 record and it appears very likely they will improve on that, but making the playoffs would be incredible.

Matt Dominguez, George  Springer, and Chris Carter

The Astros are succeeding with the bats due to their recent call ups. George Springer has came out swinging and provided much power in the 48 games hes been in. Springer has hit a team leading 12 home runs and 36 RBI. Dexter Fowler and Jose Altuve have been reaching base effectively for the Astros with .393 and .355 respective on base percentages. The 24 stolen bases for Altuve have also proven his value to the team.

Perhaps another reason for the Astros success this season is the pitching. Dallas Keutchel has a 2.38 ERA in 90.2 innings pitched and Collin McHugh has a 2.82 ERA in 54.1 innings pitched. Guys like Scott Feldman and Jared Cosart have ERAs just over 4.00, but a lot of innings covered. The closer position appears to be taken over by Chad Qualls who has completed 9 saves with a 1.99 ERA in 25 games. The lefty Darin Downs has also been a success by posting a 1.32 ERA in 15 games so far this season.

Dallas Keutchel

If the Astros are serious about contending this season they are going to have to acquire some players before the trade deadline. They will need at least one big bat, starting pitcher, and reliever. Perhaps one of the Dodgers' surplus of outfielders. Andre Ethier would make the most sense, because you can throw him right behind Springer in the lineup and add some much needed depth. Maybe Alexei Ramirez to cover the failures that have come from Jonathon Villar at shortstop.

In the area of pitching the Astros definitely have the farm system to get one of the biggest arms on the market. They can go super big and get David Price from the Rays, who have the worst record in baseball. They can also go out and trade for Jeff Samardjiza. If they don't want to go all in they can acquire a third or forth starter.

The Astros can definitely do something this season, its just a matter if they want to do it with home grown players or to make a push with acquisitions.

We're Leaving. Cano Signs With The Mariners. Granderson Signs With The Mets. And More

Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano has signed a 10 year $240 Million deal with the Seattle Mariners. In the wake of the Yankees signing Jacoby Ellsbury they allowed Robinson Cano to leave. Depending on what other bats the Yankees add, the departure of Robinson Cano may not be so upsetting. With the addition of Brian McCann, Ellsbury, Kelly Johnons, and possibly another player the Yankees
will improve their production at several positions and lose production at only second base. The Yankees may explore trades for Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips, or other second baseman, or take a more conventional route and sign free agents such as Omar Infante or Stephan Drew. With the departure of Robinson Cano I would personally bat Ellsbury third and have Gardner lead off with a right handed bat with some speed behind him.

As for the Seattle Mariners, Cano is not the end of their off season acquisitions. With Robinson Cano being the lone star in their lineup the Mariners are looking to add another bat. That bat is speculated to be Choo, Napoli, Carlos Beltran, or Nelson Cruz. I speculate they could trade for Matt Kemp for a few prospects, but the Mariners are serious in their pursuit of starting pitcher David Price. It has been said that the Mariners are willing to make a package featuring pitching prospect Taijuan Walker and second baseman Nick Franklin. A pitching rotation with Felix Hernandez, David Price, and Hisashi Iwakuma may bring back memories of the Mariners from over a decade away. A trade including Mike Zunino and Dustin Ackley may be able to land Matt Kemp or another impact bat. Signing another free agent will especially put the Mariners in competition for 2014.

Curtis Granderson

Curtis Granderson has apparently reached agreement the New York Mets worth $60 Million over 4 years. Granderson will bring much needed power to the Mets lineup and provide protection for David Wright. Already in an outfield with Juan Lagares, Eric Young Jr, and Chris B. Young, Granderson will probably play a corner outfield position. In three full seasons with the Yankees Granderson hit 108 home runs, but in the three full seasons in Detroit he played prior to coming to the Yankees, he hit 75 home runs. Although hitting coach Kevin Long changed his swing Yankee Stadium dramatically changed his stats for the better. Playing in Citi Field Granderson's days of 40 home run seasons are gone.

After being non tendered by the Blue Jays JP Arencibia has found a new home in Texas. The Rangers were looking for a catcher and instead of going after McCann, Pierzynski, or Saltalamacchia, the Rangers to the cheaper alternative by giving Arencibia to a 1 year $2 Million deal.

The Astros continued their quest to improve for the 2014 season by signing starting pitcher Scott Feldman to a 3 year $30 Million deal. After a successful season between the Cubs and the Orioles posting a 3.86 ERA in 186 innings pitched. After trading Jordan Lyles in a deal for Dexter Fowler, Feldman fills a hole in the Astros rotation.

The Marlins continue their under the radar moves by signing shortstop but likely second baseman Rafael Furcal. He will 36 in 2014 and has a career .284 career batting average and a .267 batting average from 2010-2012. Furcal missed all of 2013, but is expected to rebound in 2014.

Ellsbury, Morneau, Saltalamacchia Sign. Fowler, Gentry, Lindblom, Bell, Smith Gregerson Traded

Jacoby Ellsbury in his new uniform

The biggest news of yesterday's busy day was the signing of Jacoby Ellsbury. The New York Yankees signed the All Star Jacoby Ellsbury to a colossal 7 year $148 Million deal. Ellsbury will join an outfield with Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki probably making the best defensive outfield in the MLB. Ellsbury has had some fluctuation in his stats from year to year, but he has been someone consistent. He has put up a .297/.350/.439 slashline for his career, and has one dominating season under his belt. Ellsbury has led the league in stolen bases 3 seasons and has a 162 game average of 55 stolen bases. With an average annual war of 3.9 and assigning $5 Million to each win above replacement Ellsbury seems to be worth the deal. Johnny Damon is a similar player to make the transition from the Red Sox to the Yankkes via free agency, and he saw some success. Damon's average home run totals increased from 14 to 19.25 per season. That is a 37.5% increase. If the same can be said for Ellsbury, who has an average home run total of 15 home runs per season, you can expect him to hit about 20 home runs a year in Yankee Stadium. Combined with his speed and defense, Ellsbury will be an impact player for the Yankees, although his signing most likely takes them out of competition for Cano.

Justin Morneau

In the wake of Todd Helton's retirement the Rockies signed slugging first baseman Justin Morneau to a 2 year $13 Million deal. Morneau was traded to the Pirates mid season and was a big help for getting them to the post season. He hit 17 home runs last year playing most of his games in the spacious Target Field, and has a career average of 22 home runs per season.   Morneau is still relativley young at 32, but has battled some injuries the past few seasons, only playing 150 games total between 2010 and 2011. The Canadian born Morneau will slot in very nicely in the Rockies lineup which is projected to be Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, Morneau, Cuddyer, for a 3-6. The home run numbers are expected to rise for Morneau playing in Coors field.

It was reported that the Rays acquired Ryan Hannigan in a trade yesterday, but that turned out to be a 3 team with Heath Bell also headed to the Rays. Hannigan had a down year in 2012 with his batting average not cracking .200. Heath Bell will play for his 4th team in 4 years after what could be called a bounce back season. His ERA dropped from 5.09 to 4.11 after going from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks. With the signing of Juan Oviedo and the trade to acquire Heath Bell, the chances of Fernando Rodney returning to the Rays are bleak.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The Miami Marlins signed free agent catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a 3 year $21 Million deal. Salty has been pretty productive for ta catcher during his time playing for the Red Sox. In 3 full seasons in Boston the backstop put together an OPS+ of 104 over those 3 seasons. His slashline of .244/.306/.437 slashline during his time in Boston is significant given his defensive capabilities. With this signing I think the Marlins are up to something especially with their reluctance to trade Giancarlo Stanton. Watch out for the Marlins in the trade market and the free agent market as they may be flying under the radar.

After trading Jemile Weeks for Jim Johnson the Athletics made another move by trading for outfielder Craig Gentry and right handed reliever Josh Lindbolm. With the departure of Chris B. Young the Athletics were in search for an outfielder and they went to Gentry who's game revolves and speed and batitng average. His career .280 batting average in two full seasons proves Gentry's capabilities. Lindbolm's ERA has steadily been climbing but the ballpark he has been playing in has steadily been getting smaller. Going from Dodger Stadium to Citizens Bank Park to Rangers Ballpark his ERA went from 2.73 in 2011 to 5.46 in 2013. Lindbolm's ERA will resort back to around 3.00 as he moves to the spacious Oakland Coliseum.

Luke Gregerson

The Athletics further added to their bullpen after getting both Lindbolm and Johnson by trading outfielder Seth Smith for right hander Luke Gregerson of the San Diego Padres.  Smith hovers around a .265 batting avage with an on base percentage .100 points higher. He gets on base, and hits for average power with an average of 14 home runs per season. Gregerson has been an extremely effective and healthy reliever in San Diego the first 5 years of his career by pitching 347 innings and holding a 2.88 ERA in his career and a 2.60 ERA in the past 3 seasons. The Athletics are seriously building an effective bullpen, possibly soon to be the best in baseball.

The Houston Astros made their first splash of the off season by trading for center fielder Dexter Fowler from the Rockies in exchange for pitcher Jordan Lyl

Dexter Fowler

es and outfielder Brandon Barnes. In his first 5 full seasons Fowler has a 103 OPS+ with an on base percentage of .367 staying consistent by year. He swipes an average of 17 stolen bases and hits an average of 7 home runs, which is pretty good for a lead off hitter. Fowler will set the table well for the Astros with Jose Altuve following him.  Lyles hasn't found much success with his consistent ERA over 5 in his first 3 seasons, which is mot expected to go down in Colorado where ERAs tend to inflate. Brandon Barnes will be 28 in 2014 and has also not found much success in his first full season. He hit 8 home runs with a .289 on base percentageand a 50% stolen base percentage. This trade was probably done to free up salary so I expect the Rockies to make another move either for a starting pitcher or an outfielder.

The Cubs and the Astros

This should be a short post, because there isn't much to write about these two clubs. Basically they are doomed for 2013. Sorry in advance to all the Cubs and Astros fans, but these two teams have a snowball's chance in hell to even be in competition for a playoff spot let alone a winning season.

The Cubs are a franchise with a very rich fan base and they really want to win every year, but everyone knows about their cursed franchise. The Cubs have a bright future with a great farm system. I think many prospects have the chance to make it to the big league team out of spring training. Here is how their lineup should look:

1. L. DeJesus CF 106 OPS+
2. R. Castro SS    105 OPS+
3. L. Rizzo 1B      119 OPS+
4. R. Soriano LF  121 OPS+
5. R. Hairston RF 117 OPS+
6. S. Navarro C    96 OPS+
7. R. Barney 2B    79 OPS+
8. R. Vitters 3B    .869 OPS in AAA

The lineup for the cubs isn't bad but the pitching isn't any better. The Cubs traded away Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm. They did sign Edwin Jackson to a deal this off season.

1. R. Jeff Samardzija 3.81 ERA
2. R. Edwin Jackson 4.03 ERA
3. R. Matt Garza 3.91 ERA
4. R. Carlos Villanueva 4.16 ERA
5. R. Travis Wood 4.27 ERA

Long time beloved Cubs pitcher, Kerry Wood retired in the middle of the 2012 season and left the bullpen in even more of a mess. Basically the bullpen is still a mess for the 2013 season, and a decision for Carlos Marmol has to be made. In order for him to get a save he needs to walk the entire ballpark first. Can the Cubs keep putting that much on a win?

I project 59 wins for the Cubs

If you asked me to name the Astros' starting lineup, I couldn't. If you asked me to name Astros' starting rotation, I couldn't. If you asked me to name the Astros' bullpen, I couldn't. They traded away almost every valuable piece on their team and got back at least something for it.

The lineup for the Astros is up in the air. This is the best thing I can put together. I won't bother putting their OPS+ after their name.

1. S. Paredes CF
2. R. Altuve  2B
3. L. Pena 1B
4. R. Carter DH
5. R. Laird 3B
6. R. Castro C
7. R. Greene SS
8. L. Martinez RF
9. S. Grossman LF

The rotation for the Astros is a bit more respectable than their AAA lineup. They acquired Phillip Humber, but Bud Norris may be traded soon enough.

1. R. Bud Norris 4.65 ERA
2. R. Phillip Humber 6.44 ERA
3. R. Jordan Lyles 5.09 ERA
4. R. Lucas Harrell 3.76 ERA
5. R. Brad Peacock

The bullpen includes one common name, Jose Veras. He pitched to a 3.63 ERA in 2012. Lefty Wesley Wright pitched to a 3.27 ERA in 2012, so that's a bright spot. Prospect John Ely may come up during the season and pitch out of the bullpen, or the rotation, but it won't have an effect.

I project a record setting season for the Astros, but not in the good way. 40 wins and 162 losses, the worst record for a team since the 1962 Mets. If the Astros somehow make the playoffs, I will eat my hat.

Moving On Up

Some players will get the chance to move up in baseball. Their teams were in last place, but now they have the chance to reach the playoffs.

Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate were part of a big trade last night. The Dodgers will receive the 2 players stated in exchange for Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough. Hanley Ramirez is hitting .246/.322/.430 this season with 47 RBI and 14 stolen bases. Randy Choate has been sporting a 2.49 ERA over 25.1 innings pitched. The lineup for the Dodgers when everyone is healthy would look like the following: Gordon SS, Abreu LF, Kemp CF, Ethier RF, Ramirez 3B, Loney 1B, M. Ellis 2B, A. Ellis C


Wandy Rodriguez will join playoff contention with the Pirates. He was acquired by the Pirates in exchange for the following minor league players: Rudy Owens, Robbie Grossman, and Colton Cain. Rodriguez will join a rotation with James McDonald, AJ Burnett, Eric Bedard and Kevin Correia. Rodriguez has a 3.79 ERA in 21 games started this season. Over his past 5 seasons Rodriguez has a 3.45 ERA and the Pirates will take that. Their next mission is to find a bat to add to their lineup. 


Cole Hamels is moving on up in the bank as he signed a contract extension for 144 million dollars over 6 years. That is the second most expensive contract given to a pitcher ever. Only CC Sabathias contract is greater. 

Trading Places

Some trades took place today, no really big names were involved, but still exciting. One trade involved the Rockies and Royals. The two teams swap Jeremy Guthrie and Jonathan Sanchez. Perhaps a change of scenery will do well for these two struggling pitchers.

Guthrie traded for the second time this season

The Blue Jays and Astros conducted a 10 player deal that didn't involve any really big names as well. The Blue Jays will receive a trio of pitchers J.A. Happ, Brandon Lyon, and David Carpenter. The Astros will receive  Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, and minor league players Joe Musgrove, Asher Wojciechowski, David Rollins and Carlos Perez, and a player to be named later. 


The Orioles acquire Omar Quintanilla from the Mets for later considerations. This was to clear space for the return of Jason Bay. 


We expect a trades of Ryan Dempster and possibly Cole Hamels and Zach Greinke. The latter two are less likely because the Phillies offered Hamels 130 million over 6 years and the Brewers offered Greinke 100+ million over 5 years.