The Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are reigning World Series Champions, but I'm not very sure if they'll be able to uphold that title in 2014. Many important pieces of their 2013 success have departed and the team did not replace these figures.

The lineup for the Red Sox took a significant decline upon the departure of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and most likely Stephan Drew. They did replace Salty with AJ Pierzynski, but Ellsbury is being replaced with Jackie Bradly Jr, and Drew by Xander Bogaerts. They still have a very powerful lineup and here is how it may look in 2014.

1. S. Shane Victorino       RF 119 OPS+
2. R. Dustin Pedroia        2B 116 OPS+
3. L. David Ortiz            DH 160 OPS+
4. R. Mike Napoli           1B 129 OPS+
5. L. AJ Pierzynski            C 94 OPS+
6. R. Johnny Gomes        LF 111 OPS+
7. R. Will Middlebrooks   3B 88 OPS+
8. L. Jackie Bradly Jr.     CF 69 OPS+
9. R. Xander Bogaerts     SS 88 OPS+

Ortiz after the Boston Bombing "This is our
F****** city"

The pitching rotation for the Red Sox may be up in the air for the 2014 season with Ryan Dempster announcing that he is going to sit out the season. Also Jon Lester is in a walk year and the other members of the rotation may just be flat out inconsistent. Anyway this is how the rotation may stack up.

1. L. Jon Lester       109 ERA+
2. R. Clay Buchholz 234 ERA+ in 14 starts
3. R. Jake Peavy      101 ERA+
4. R. John Lackey    116 ERA+
5. L. Felix Doubront  94 ERA+

The bullpen is why the Red Sox won in the playoffs this past season. They lost several pieces throughout the season to injury. Koji Uehara ended up being the closer and he was phenomenal. Other notable parts of the bullpen for the Red Sox are Junichi Tazawa, Craig Breslow, and off season acquisition Edward Mujica.

The Red Sox Sign Mike Napoli

The Boston Red Sox have resigned first baseman Mike Napoli to a 2 year $32 Million deal. Napoli was a major reason for the Red Sox success in the second half of the 2013 season and the playoffs. Napoli has a career OPS+ of 127 and an OPS+ of 138 from 2011-2013 with the Rangers and the Red Sox. He will definitely be part of the team chemistry that was so important to the Red Sox success in 2014 and 2015. This signing will definitely make the departure of Ellsbury and possibly Drew not as harsh.

Aoki Traded to Royals. Red Sox Sign Mujica

How does Aoki look in his new uniform? 

In the hunt for a right fielder the Royals acquired well rounded outfielder Norichika Aoki from the Brewers in exchange for left handed pitcher Will Smith. Aoki will be 32 next season and has 2 seasons under his belt, and those two seasons were pretty successful. He played 151 and 155 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively with nearly identical batting averages and on base percentages both seasons at .287 and .355. Aoki also features speed stealing 30 bases in 2012 and 20 bases in 2013, but being caught much more in 2013. Smith will be 24 in 2014 and has a mixture of succss and failure in his first two seasons. He sported a 5.32 ERA in 89.2 innings in his rookie year of 2012 and an ERA of 3.24 in 3.24 in 33.1 innings the following season. The chances of the Royals signing Carlos Beltran are now lowered.

Mujica will join a bullpen with Japanese duo Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara with Uehara as a closer. Mujica played with the Marlins and Cardinals the last 3 seasons and gathered 206 innings and a 2.93 ERA. Mujica closed for the Cardinals in 2013 after closer Jason Motte had to have Tommy John surgery. He eventually led the Cardinals to the World Series. Mujica is a great addition to the Red Sox bullpen. The deal is reported to be 2 years $9.5 Million.

Ellsbury, Morneau, Saltalamacchia Sign. Fowler, Gentry, Lindblom, Bell, Smith Gregerson Traded

Jacoby Ellsbury in his new uniform

The biggest news of yesterday's busy day was the signing of Jacoby Ellsbury. The New York Yankees signed the All Star Jacoby Ellsbury to a colossal 7 year $148 Million deal. Ellsbury will join an outfield with Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki probably making the best defensive outfield in the MLB. Ellsbury has had some fluctuation in his stats from year to year, but he has been someone consistent. He has put up a .297/.350/.439 slashline for his career, and has one dominating season under his belt. Ellsbury has led the league in stolen bases 3 seasons and has a 162 game average of 55 stolen bases. With an average annual war of 3.9 and assigning $5 Million to each win above replacement Ellsbury seems to be worth the deal. Johnny Damon is a similar player to make the transition from the Red Sox to the Yankkes via free agency, and he saw some success. Damon's average home run totals increased from 14 to 19.25 per season. That is a 37.5% increase. If the same can be said for Ellsbury, who has an average home run total of 15 home runs per season, you can expect him to hit about 20 home runs a year in Yankee Stadium. Combined with his speed and defense, Ellsbury will be an impact player for the Yankees, although his signing most likely takes them out of competition for Cano.

Justin Morneau

In the wake of Todd Helton's retirement the Rockies signed slugging first baseman Justin Morneau to a 2 year $13 Million deal. Morneau was traded to the Pirates mid season and was a big help for getting them to the post season. He hit 17 home runs last year playing most of his games in the spacious Target Field, and has a career average of 22 home runs per season.   Morneau is still relativley young at 32, but has battled some injuries the past few seasons, only playing 150 games total between 2010 and 2011. The Canadian born Morneau will slot in very nicely in the Rockies lineup which is projected to be Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, Morneau, Cuddyer, for a 3-6. The home run numbers are expected to rise for Morneau playing in Coors field.

It was reported that the Rays acquired Ryan Hannigan in a trade yesterday, but that turned out to be a 3 team with Heath Bell also headed to the Rays. Hannigan had a down year in 2012 with his batting average not cracking .200. Heath Bell will play for his 4th team in 4 years after what could be called a bounce back season. His ERA dropped from 5.09 to 4.11 after going from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks. With the signing of Juan Oviedo and the trade to acquire Heath Bell, the chances of Fernando Rodney returning to the Rays are bleak.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The Miami Marlins signed free agent catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a 3 year $21 Million deal. Salty has been pretty productive for ta catcher during his time playing for the Red Sox. In 3 full seasons in Boston the backstop put together an OPS+ of 104 over those 3 seasons. His slashline of .244/.306/.437 slashline during his time in Boston is significant given his defensive capabilities. With this signing I think the Marlins are up to something especially with their reluctance to trade Giancarlo Stanton. Watch out for the Marlins in the trade market and the free agent market as they may be flying under the radar.

After trading Jemile Weeks for Jim Johnson the Athletics made another move by trading for outfielder Craig Gentry and right handed reliever Josh Lindbolm. With the departure of Chris B. Young the Athletics were in search for an outfielder and they went to Gentry who's game revolves and speed and batitng average. His career .280 batting average in two full seasons proves Gentry's capabilities. Lindbolm's ERA has steadily been climbing but the ballpark he has been playing in has steadily been getting smaller. Going from Dodger Stadium to Citizens Bank Park to Rangers Ballpark his ERA went from 2.73 in 2011 to 5.46 in 2013. Lindbolm's ERA will resort back to around 3.00 as he moves to the spacious Oakland Coliseum.

Luke Gregerson

The Athletics further added to their bullpen after getting both Lindbolm and Johnson by trading outfielder Seth Smith for right hander Luke Gregerson of the San Diego Padres.  Smith hovers around a .265 batting avage with an on base percentage .100 points higher. He gets on base, and hits for average power with an average of 14 home runs per season. Gregerson has been an extremely effective and healthy reliever in San Diego the first 5 years of his career by pitching 347 innings and holding a 2.88 ERA in his career and a 2.60 ERA in the past 3 seasons. The Athletics are seriously building an effective bullpen, possibly soon to be the best in baseball.

The Houston Astros made their first splash of the off season by trading for center fielder Dexter Fowler from the Rockies in exchange for pitcher Jordan Lyl

Dexter Fowler

es and outfielder Brandon Barnes. In his first 5 full seasons Fowler has a 103 OPS+ with an on base percentage of .367 staying consistent by year. He swipes an average of 17 stolen bases and hits an average of 7 home runs, which is pretty good for a lead off hitter. Fowler will set the table well for the Astros with Jose Altuve following him.  Lyles hasn't found much success with his consistent ERA over 5 in his first 3 seasons, which is mot expected to go down in Colorado where ERAs tend to inflate. Brandon Barnes will be 28 in 2014 and has also not found much success in his first full season. He hit 8 home runs with a .289 on base percentageand a 50% stolen base percentage. This trade was probably done to free up salary so I expect the Rockies to make another move either for a starting pitcher or an outfielder.

Trades, Free Agent Signings, Non Tneders, and More!

Yesterday was a very busy day in baseball as many players found new homes. Two trades went through yesterday and several players signed with new teams and re-signed with their same teams.

Jim Johnson

The biggest news was the trade between the Athletics and Orioles. Closer Jim Johnson has a 2.70 ERA over the past 3 seasons and has 101 saves over the past 2 seasons. Jemile  Weeks is the younger brother to Ricky Weeks, and has not found much success at the Major League level besides his rookie year. Weeks is set to compete for a spot at second base. These two players were exchanged for one another strait up. Johnson is going to replace closer Grant Balfour, and Johnson is projected to earn $10 Million or more in arbitration. The Orioles are trying to land a starting pitcher and by freeing up salary they may be on the verge of making a splash.

Doug Fister

The other big trade was between the Washington Nationals and the Detroit Tigers. The Nationals acquired starting pitcher Doug Fister who featured a respected 3.30ERA over the past 3 seasons and a 3.67 ERA in 2013. In exchange for Fister the Tigers pitching prospect Robbie Ray, infielder Steve Lomardozzi, and left handed reliever Ian Krol. Fister will be a definite improvement over Dan Haren who signed with the Dodgers as a free agent who featured a 3.97 ERA in the past 3 seasons and a 4.67 ERA in 2013. Fister will join a rotation with Stephan Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, and a 5th starter.

Also last night the Red Sox signed free agent catcher AJ Pierzynski to a 1 year deal with $8.25 Million guaranteed. Pierzynski played for the Texas Rangers in 2013 posting a .272/.297/.425 slashline with 17 home runs in 134 games. The Red Sox were preparing for the departure of Jarrod Saltalamacchia who  posted a .273/.338/.446 slashline with 14 home runs in 121 games.
It appears the Red Sox have taken a down grade at the catcher's position especially with Pierzynski's age.

Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes has a 4.54 career ERA, but a 95 career ERA+. The reason for having an ERA+ around average with a high ERA is the ballpark factor. Hughes has pitched most of his games in Yankee Stadium, one of the smallest ballparks in the league. Hughes signed a 3 year $24 Million deal with Minnesota Twins. The deal also includes bonuses up to $1 Million a year based on the amount of innings pitched. As Hughes moves to the spacious Target Field his ERA will drop dramatically. If his ERA+ is any indication of the type of pitcher he is, his ERA may drop to around 3.70.

After several successful seasons early in his career Scott Kazmir has fell of quite a bit. Its weird to think Kazmir will only be 30 in January, but he has been around around for 9 seasons. Kazmir hasn't found much success in recent years, but he signed a 2 year $22 Million deal with the Oakland Athletics. This deal is probably the reason why Brett Anderson is now available for trade.

The Blue Jays signed catcher Dioner Navarro to a 2 year $8 Million that will pay $3 Million in the first season and $5 Million in the second season. This move made JP Arencibia become non-tendered and become a free agent. Navarro played 89 games with the Chicago Cubs and posted a 132 OPS+ , very good for a catcher, and he is a defensive upgrade over Arencibia in my opinion.

Joe Nathan

Being announced a little more than an hour ago was the signing of closer Joe Nathan. Nathan signed a 2 year deal with the Detroit Tigers. The salary in the deal hasn't been made official yet, but this is a good deal for the Tigers. With the failures of Jose Valverde and the shakiness of the closer position last season, the Tigers needed a stud for the ninth inning. Nathan posted 2 stellar seasons with the Texas Rangers by collecting 80 saves with a 2.09 ERA.

On smaller notes, the Rays have traded for catcher Ryan Hannigan, the Giants re-signed starter Ryan Vogelsong to a 1 year $5 Million deal, the Mariners signed Willie Bloomquist, and the Rays re-signed  reliever Juan Oviedo.

Several players were non tendered yesterday as it was the non tender deadline. When a player gets non tendered it means that the team will not be tendering a contract to that player, because they believe they will be too expensive through arbitation, so the team allows them to become a free agent. Some of the important players that were non tendered yesterday are J.P. Arencibia, John Axford, Andrew Bailey, Ronald Belisario, Chris Coghlan, Chris Getz,Tommy Hanson, Jeremy Hefner, Daniel Hudson, Jayson Nix, Xavier Paul, Omar Quintanilla  Sandy Rosario, Ryan Webb, Jerome Williams, and Wesley Wright. These players are now allowed to sign with any team that offers them a contract. 

Bringing K's to Baltimore and MM's to Boston

The Baltimore Orioles acquired relief pitcher Francisco Rodriguez, also known as K-Rod, from the Milwaukee Brewers in the wake of Braun's suspension. The Orioles loss part of their bullpen when trading for starting pitcher Scott Feldman of the Cubs at the time. For Feldman Pedro Strop had to go to Chicago, so now K-Rod will replace him. Rodriguez is having a great season. He has a 1.09 ERA in   24.2 innings pitched. He will set up for closer Jim Johnson in a great bullpen. Going to the Cubs in the trade is minor league infielder Nick Delmonico.

Dustin Pedroia is now a richer man. The 2008 MVP has finally cashed out. He is ranked as the second best second baseman in baseball, behind Robinson Cano and now he has the salary to prove it. Pedroia signed a 7 year $100 MM contract with the Boston Red Sox most likely making him a member of the Red Sox for life. I think the sub $15 MM annual salary is a steal for the Red Sox considering the stats he has provided.

Pedroia has a 119 OPS+ during the period of 2007-2013, that is well above average, 19% above average to be exact. Also because OPS+ considers ballparks he is tearing it up. Pedroia has also featured decent speed stealing 116 bases in the 7 year period, not to mention terrific defense considering his 2 gold gloves. Pedroia is a $18 MM+ a year player, especially with an average annual WAR of 5.27. The reason why the Red Sox are in first place is because of Pedroia, and he will be the basis for the team for the next 7 years. He will be 37 when the contract concludes, and that is well played indeed.
 

Dedicated Fan Base

The fans of the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies are two fan bases that are dedicated to their teams. I've been to Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park in recent seasons and both times the atmosphere was just fantastic. Both teams missed the post season in 2012, but they are looking to make it back in 2013, and the fan base will have to be a big part of it.

The Boston Red Sox were on a slippery slope in the beginning of 2012 and they ended up at the bottom of the stack. They fired Bobby Valentine and rebuilt half of their lineup. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Cody Ross, and Kevin Youkilis will not be back with the Red Sox in 2013. Although they lost a lot, they spent the most money this off season and that resulted in this lineup:

1. S. Victorino LF          91 OPS+
2. L. Ellsbury CF            83 OPS+
3. R. Pedroia 2B            112 OPS+
4. L. Ortiz DH                171 OPS+
5. R. Napoli 1B              110 OPS+
6. S. Saltalamacchia C    95 OPS+
7. R. Middlebrooks 3B   120 OPS+
8. R. Gomes RF              140 OPS+
9. L. Drew SS                 79 OPS+

Former ace Josh Beckett was part of the huge trade with the Dodgers and will remain with the Dodgers in 2013. The Red Sox did add Ryan Dempster, but much of their rotation did not perform as expected in 2012.

1. L. Jon Lester 4.82 ERA
2. R. Ryan Dempster 3.38 ERA
3. R. Clay Buchholz 4.56 ERA
4. L. Felix Doubront 4.86 ERA
5. R. Rubby De la Rosa 3.71 ERA in 2011

The bullpen is the strongest part of this Red Sox team. They added Koji Uehara (1.75 ERA), Craig Breslow (2.70 ERA), and Joel Hanrahan (2.72 ERA) over the course of 2012 and 2013. They also have Andrew Bailey (3.24 ERA in 2011), Junichi Tazawa (1.43 ERA), Daniel Bard (6.22 ERA as starter in 2012, 3.33 ERA as reliever in 2011), and Franklin Morales (3.77 ERA). Each one of these guys is a great arm out of the bullpen, but it has been announced that Joel Hanrahan will be the closer in 2013.

I project 89 wins for the Red Sox in 2013

The Phillies traded away Hunter Pence, Vance Worley, Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton over the course of 2012 and 2013, but they got much back for their trades. Ben Revere and Michael Young will be added to the lineup along with Delmon Young who joined as a free agent. Carlos Ruiz is suspended for the first 50 games of the season, but i'll include him because he will be on the team most of the season.

1. L. Revere CF   89 OPS+
2. S. Rollins SS    98 OPS+
3. L. Utley 2B     110 OPS+
4. L. Howard 1B 91 OPS+
5. R. Young RF   89 OPS+
6. R. Ruiz C        149 OPS+
7. R. Young  3B  78 OPS
8. L. Brown  LF  91 OPS+

The real strength of the Phillies is the starting rotation. The big three in Philly is Halladay, Hamels, and Lee. Guess what , they'll all be healthy this year and ready to go, but lets look at how the entire rotation looks. You can expect Halladay to be much better than he was in 2012.

1. R. Roy Halladay  4.49 ERA
2. L. Cole Hamels   3.05 ERA
3. L. Cliff Lee          3.16 ERA
4. R. Kyle Kendrick 3.90 ERA
5. L. John Lannan    3.70 ERA in 2011

The Phillies traded Josh Lindblom for Michael Young, which I think was a great trade, and they added set up specialist, Mike Adams. Also in the bullpen is lefty Antonio Bastardo and closer Jonathon Papelbon. These three guys are key for the success of the Phillies in 2013.

I project 85 wins for the Phillies in 2013, but expect them to be in contention for most of the year.

Boston Goes Hollywood

With the completion of the colossal trade four great players on the Red Sox will head to Los Angeles to play for the Dodgers. The Dodgers will receive right handed starting pitcher Josh Beckett, left handed hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, switch hitting utility player Nick Punto and the currently injured left handed speed demon Carl Crawford. The Dodgers will absorb $258M out of the total $270M.

Carl Crawford had Tommy John Surgery just this week and will not be able to play until next season. Crawford is clearly a long term replacement for the Dodgers' trade deadline acquisition Shane Victorino. Adrian Gonzalez is also a long term stay at first base. Gonzalez has multiple gold gloves and multiple All Star Game appearances. Beckett is having a down year with a 5.23 ERA, but his ERA over his career is 3.93 and in Dodger Stadium that will be much lower.

The Red Sox will get first baseman James Loney and a bundle of prospects. Those prospects are right handed pitcher Allen Webster, infielder Ivan De Jesus, OF/1B Jerry Sands and right handed pitcher Rubby De La Rosa. All are top prospects in the Dodgers organization.

Earlier in the season the Dodgers traded for Hanley Ramirez, Randy Choate, Brandon League, Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton. They have a great combination of power and speed in their lineup and a powerful pitching rotation.

Dee Gordon is expected back soon, so lets check out the lineup followed by the players slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG)

SS - Dee Gordon - .229/.280/.282
LF - Shane Victorino - .256/.318/.389
CF - Matt Kemp - .333/.398/ .588
1B - Adrian Gonzalez - .300/.343/.469
3B - Hanley Ramirez - .261/.331/.457
RF - Andre Ethier - .284/ .352/.453
C   -  AJ Ellis - .281/.387/.426
2B - Adam Kennedy - .261/.339/.344
P

The pitching rotation followed by the pitchers' ERA

L. Clayton Kershaw 2.87 ERA
R. Chad Billingsley 3.55 ERA
L. Chris Capuano 3.38 ERA
R. Joe Blanton 5.02 ERA
R. Josh Beckett 5.23 ERA

Don't forget about the bullpen anchored by closer Kenley Jansen (1.93 ERA), Elbert (2.23 ERA), and lefty specialist Randy Choate (3.86 ERA).

The Dodgers a force to be reckoned with this season and seasons to come. While the Red Sox have offically entered rebuilding.




Thanks to Mark Sulymanov for contributing the title of this article.

Injuries Galore !

Bautista after injuring his wrist

In multiple games that took place yesterday big stars sustained potential injuries. One of the really big ones is a potential injured achilles to the Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz. After Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford returned from injuries and a loss of David Ortiz would be a devastating blow.

Another potential big loss is to the already banged up Blue Jays. In last night's game Jose Bautista hurt his wrist and had to be taken out of the game. The Blue Jays are in last place in the American League East and without the league leader in home runs, their chances of making the playoffs are done.

Perhaps the biggest blow of the day was Joey Votto's knee injury. Votto will undergo arthroscopic surgery and be out for 3-4 weeks. The Reds are in a very tight race with the Cardinals and Pirates. Without the Reds' top slugger these 3-4 weeks could be a drag.

A Change of Sox

Kevin Youkilis was traded to the White Sox yesterday. He'll hang up his Red Sox uniform and wear the White Sox uniform from here on out. Youkilis was pushed out of his position at 3rd base by Will Middlebrooks. In the trade the Red Sox received Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge, a pitcher and a utility player respectively.

Youkilis was part of the 2004 and 2007 World Series championship teams with the Red Sox and has performed well over the course of his career. Youkilis' best trait is his on base percentage. over the course of his career he has a .388 on base percentage and in 2011 he had a .373 on base percentage. He averages 23 home runs a season with close to 90 RBI's. If Youkilis can raise his on base percentage in 2012 from .315 to somewhere above .350 he would be a major help to the White Sox in pursuit of the AL Central or one of those 2 wildcard slots. 

A productive line up for the White Sox would be the following:

1. Alejandro De Aza CF

2. Kevin Youkilis      3B

3 .Paul Konerko       1B

4. Adam Dunn          DH

5. Alex Rios              RF

6. AJ Pierzynski        C

7. Dayan Viciedo      LF

8. Gordon Beckham 2B

9. Alexi Ramirez       SS

Saturday Night's Alright for Fighting

What a busy Saturday April 21, 2012. A perfect game, a 9-0 comeback win, a double header between two powerful teams, and several great pitching performances.

Lets start off with The Humber Games. The 21st perfect game in MLB history goes to the 29 year old Phillip Humber. Collecting 9 strikeouts against The Seattle Mariners Humber enters baseball history as another pitcher to complete baseball immortality. A very exciting game for baseball fans all over the country and congratulations to Phillip Humber.

The next thing to talk about is the greatest rivalry in sports history. The Yankees beat the Red Sox in the first game of a 3 game set 6-2. In game 2 of the weekend series The Red Sox looked dominant through the first 6 innings. Starter Felix Doubront pitched 6 innings and gave up just 1 run, a solo home run to Mark Teixeira. Doubront was taken out after the 6th inning with a 9-1 lead. The problem for The Red Sox this season has been the bullpen and yes they did not perform well. A grand slam and a 2 run double for Nick Swisher and a 3 run homer and a 2 run double for Teixeira lead The Yankees to  an momentous 15-9 victory over The Red Sox.

A double header between The Tigers and The Rangers took place on Saturday as well. In the first game Rick Porcello got rocked pitching only 1 inning while giving up 8 runs. The Rangers got an easy victory in that game. In the night game Justin Verlander took the hill for The Tigers and Neftali Feliz took the hill for The Rangers. Feliz went 8 innings giving up 3 runs and Verlander went 6 innings giving up only 1 unearned run. The two teams split the double header.

AJ Burnett made his first start of the season after recovering from an injury in spring training. He pitched 7 shutout innings against The Cardinals. He was acommponied by Justin Verlander, Stephan Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw and Phillip Humber as starters to not allow a run on Saturday.





What will Sunday hold?