Is The Price Right?

The Tampa Bay Rays have expressed interest in trading David Price. We all know that he will be traded, the question is when, and to who? The Rays simply can't afford to pay David Price through his final year of arbitration. Price's salary for the 2014 season is already at $14 Million and should move up to at least $18 Million for the next season. When he hits free agency, you can bet the former Cy Young Award winner will sign a contract similar to that of CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Justin Verlander; establishing himself as one of the most elite starters in the game.

David Price

Price is a three time All Star and a Cy Young Award winner who will be turning 29 in August of this year. The home grown lefty found his groove in just his second full season in 2010 with a 19-6 record, a 2.72 ERA, and 188 strikeouts in 208.2 innings pitched. The following season his ERA shot up .77 points to a still respectable 3.49 ERA. He had a 12-13 record with 218 strikeouts in 224.1 innings pitched. 2012 was the season where Price won the American League Cy Young Award and he earned it. He brought he ERA down .93 runs to 2.56, while sporting a 20-5 record and striking out 205 in 211 innings pitched. In 2013 Price started off terribly with a 5.24 ERA in 9 starts, which can be connected to his first major injury, a tricep strain. He would go on to pitch a good season with a 3.33 ERA, 151 strikeouts, and a 10-8 record in 186.2 innings pitched.

Price usually finishes his seasons strong, but in 2014 he is already having a pretty nice season. With a 3.81 ERA and a league leading 133 strikeouts in 115.2 innings pitched Price is going to be a hot commodity. He has vocalized that he wants to be on a winning team, and the Rays have made it clear that they will be making trades at the deadline. The Rays also have several other pieces that can help a team such as Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist, maybe even newly acquired Grant Balfour if he can turn his season around.

James Shields

There has been some talk that Price is on the decline, but I believe his stuff is good enough to pitch through a velocity decline. In 2010 his average fastball velocity was 95.3, then 94.7 in 2011, and 95.5 in 2012. In 2013 he had a spike in ERA from his Cy Young season and a tricep injury, which could correlate to his 93.4 average fastball velocity. In 2014 his average fastball velocity is at 93.3. Its only a 2 mph difference, but if the trend continues like it did with CC Sabathia, trading for Price and signing him to a long extension could be problematic.

The Rays have said they want a pitcher who is close to Major League ready and at least another good prospect, similar to the James Shields trade. The Kansas City Royals gave up their top prospect, Wil Myers, and their top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi for Shields who has worked out well for them, but Price is in an entirely different class. It will take a big bundle of prospects to trade Price at the trade deadline, and a desperate team may do it.

The Rays do not have much catching depth and do not have great catching prospects in the minors. Jose Molina and Ryan Hannigan are not getting the job done. It would not be crazy to the Rays to ask for a young catcher or a good catching prospect in the a trade.

Besides a pitching prospect and a catching prospect the Rays need infield depth. Ben Zobrist has been slightly fluttered around in trade discussions, and he is a very fine player. James Loney is not the best offensive player, and Yunel Escobar was never considered a great player. The Rays may want an infielder whether it be a shortstop, a second baseman, or a first baseman.

Mike Zunino 

The most suitable team I can see trading for Price is the Seattle Mariners. They have all the excess pieces and the prospects. By adding Price to the Mariners, it would give them one of the strongest rotations in the MLB. They would have to part with their starting catcher, but also one of their highest prospects Mike Zunino. They also have Nick Franklin who can play just about anywhere, since he lost his job to Robinson Cano. Finally they can include Justin Smoak in the deal, but the pitcher is going to be the tricky part. The Rays will almost undoubtedly ask for Taijuan Walker, which the Mariners already expressed they will not trade him. Suppliments to Walker may be Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Hultzen, or Danny Farquhar.

My pick for Price is to go to the Mariners and contend with the Athletics down the stretch, but Price may also find a home in St. Louis, Anaheim, New York, Toronto, Cincinnati
, or San Francisco.

The Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have not made many additions or subtractions this off season, but some very intelligent moves. They are a team that is highly invested in small ball and always finds a way to win with such a low payroll. The Rays look to do the same in 2014, possibly the last season with David Price.

How will the Rays perform in 2014? 

The lineup is anchored by All Star third baseman Evan Longoria. He does not receive much protection in the lineup, but all the other members definitely contribute. The only significant position player the Rays added this off season was Ryan Hanigan in a three team deal with the Diamondbacks and Reds. The following is how I would make the Rays lineup in 2014. Adjacent to each player's name is their side of the plate they hit from, their position and their OPS+.

1. R. Desmond Jennings  CF 110 OPS+
2. S. Ben Zobrist             2B 113 OPS+
3. R. Evan Longoria        3B 134 OPS+
4. L. James Loney           1B 118 OPS+
5. R. Wil Myers               RF 132 OPS+
6. L. Matt Joyce              DH 109 OPS+
7. R. Yunel Escobar         SS 97 OPS+
8. L. David DeJesus         LF 99 OPS+
9. R. Ryan Hanigan            C 58 OPS+

Price and Longoria 

The Rays did not make many alterations to their starting rotation which seems to always be consistent and devastating to opposing players. David Price is the rock with young guns Matt Moore, and Chris Archer backing him. The following is how I would make the Rays starting rotation, adjacent to each name is their throwing arm and their ERA+ for the 2013 season.

1. L. David Price          114 OPS+
2. L. Matt Moore         116 OPS+
3. R. Chris Archer        118 OPS+
4. R. Alex Cobb           138 ERA+
5. R. Jeremy Hellickson 74 ERA+

The Rays did make a few adjustments to their bullpen in the off season. They wisely let Fernando Rodney sign with the Seattle Mariners and signed Grant Balfour for a reunion. Also in the three team deal with the Diamondbacks previously mentioned, the Rays acquired former closer Heath Bell. Also in their bullpen is lefty Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, and Juan Oviedo. The other three positions in the bullpen are open for the taking. Possibly Alex Colome, Mike Montgomery, and Jake Odorizzi can make a run for the Major League Club as a member of the bullpen or the 5th spot in the rotation.

Grant Balfour Signs With the Tampa Bay Rays

Grant Balfour 

In the aftermath of the Masahiro Tanaka signing all the free agent pitchers are falling off the table. Grant Balfour will be returning to the Tampa Bay Rays under a 2 year $12 Million deal. Balfour previously signed a deal with the Baltimore Orioles which was nullified when the Orioles did not like an aspect of his physical. Balfour will likely replace Fernando Rodney as closer as Rodney is also a free agent. Also in the Rays bullpen is Leo Nunez and Heath Bell. The later innings for the Rays have just become more secure. In his last three seasons all with the Oakland Athletics Grant Balfour accumulated 199 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.53 all out of the bullpen. We shall see what goes on with the 36 year old Australian pitcher in 2014.

Ellsbury, Morneau, Saltalamacchia Sign. Fowler, Gentry, Lindblom, Bell, Smith Gregerson Traded

Jacoby Ellsbury in his new uniform

The biggest news of yesterday's busy day was the signing of Jacoby Ellsbury. The New York Yankees signed the All Star Jacoby Ellsbury to a colossal 7 year $148 Million deal. Ellsbury will join an outfield with Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki probably making the best defensive outfield in the MLB. Ellsbury has had some fluctuation in his stats from year to year, but he has been someone consistent. He has put up a .297/.350/.439 slashline for his career, and has one dominating season under his belt. Ellsbury has led the league in stolen bases 3 seasons and has a 162 game average of 55 stolen bases. With an average annual war of 3.9 and assigning $5 Million to each win above replacement Ellsbury seems to be worth the deal. Johnny Damon is a similar player to make the transition from the Red Sox to the Yankkes via free agency, and he saw some success. Damon's average home run totals increased from 14 to 19.25 per season. That is a 37.5% increase. If the same can be said for Ellsbury, who has an average home run total of 15 home runs per season, you can expect him to hit about 20 home runs a year in Yankee Stadium. Combined with his speed and defense, Ellsbury will be an impact player for the Yankees, although his signing most likely takes them out of competition for Cano.

Justin Morneau

In the wake of Todd Helton's retirement the Rockies signed slugging first baseman Justin Morneau to a 2 year $13 Million deal. Morneau was traded to the Pirates mid season and was a big help for getting them to the post season. He hit 17 home runs last year playing most of his games in the spacious Target Field, and has a career average of 22 home runs per season.   Morneau is still relativley young at 32, but has battled some injuries the past few seasons, only playing 150 games total between 2010 and 2011. The Canadian born Morneau will slot in very nicely in the Rockies lineup which is projected to be Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, Morneau, Cuddyer, for a 3-6. The home run numbers are expected to rise for Morneau playing in Coors field.

It was reported that the Rays acquired Ryan Hannigan in a trade yesterday, but that turned out to be a 3 team with Heath Bell also headed to the Rays. Hannigan had a down year in 2012 with his batting average not cracking .200. Heath Bell will play for his 4th team in 4 years after what could be called a bounce back season. His ERA dropped from 5.09 to 4.11 after going from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks. With the signing of Juan Oviedo and the trade to acquire Heath Bell, the chances of Fernando Rodney returning to the Rays are bleak.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The Miami Marlins signed free agent catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a 3 year $21 Million deal. Salty has been pretty productive for ta catcher during his time playing for the Red Sox. In 3 full seasons in Boston the backstop put together an OPS+ of 104 over those 3 seasons. His slashline of .244/.306/.437 slashline during his time in Boston is significant given his defensive capabilities. With this signing I think the Marlins are up to something especially with their reluctance to trade Giancarlo Stanton. Watch out for the Marlins in the trade market and the free agent market as they may be flying under the radar.

After trading Jemile Weeks for Jim Johnson the Athletics made another move by trading for outfielder Craig Gentry and right handed reliever Josh Lindbolm. With the departure of Chris B. Young the Athletics were in search for an outfielder and they went to Gentry who's game revolves and speed and batitng average. His career .280 batting average in two full seasons proves Gentry's capabilities. Lindbolm's ERA has steadily been climbing but the ballpark he has been playing in has steadily been getting smaller. Going from Dodger Stadium to Citizens Bank Park to Rangers Ballpark his ERA went from 2.73 in 2011 to 5.46 in 2013. Lindbolm's ERA will resort back to around 3.00 as he moves to the spacious Oakland Coliseum.

Luke Gregerson

The Athletics further added to their bullpen after getting both Lindbolm and Johnson by trading outfielder Seth Smith for right hander Luke Gregerson of the San Diego Padres.  Smith hovers around a .265 batting avage with an on base percentage .100 points higher. He gets on base, and hits for average power with an average of 14 home runs per season. Gregerson has been an extremely effective and healthy reliever in San Diego the first 5 years of his career by pitching 347 innings and holding a 2.88 ERA in his career and a 2.60 ERA in the past 3 seasons. The Athletics are seriously building an effective bullpen, possibly soon to be the best in baseball.

The Houston Astros made their first splash of the off season by trading for center fielder Dexter Fowler from the Rockies in exchange for pitcher Jordan Lyl

Dexter Fowler

es and outfielder Brandon Barnes. In his first 5 full seasons Fowler has a 103 OPS+ with an on base percentage of .367 staying consistent by year. He swipes an average of 17 stolen bases and hits an average of 7 home runs, which is pretty good for a lead off hitter. Fowler will set the table well for the Astros with Jose Altuve following him.  Lyles hasn't found much success with his consistent ERA over 5 in his first 3 seasons, which is mot expected to go down in Colorado where ERAs tend to inflate. Brandon Barnes will be 28 in 2014 and has also not found much success in his first full season. He hit 8 home runs with a .289 on base percentageand a 50% stolen base percentage. This trade was probably done to free up salary so I expect the Rockies to make another move either for a starting pitcher or an outfielder.

Highs and Lows

The Rockies are mile high and well, the Rays are at sea level. Both of these teams have the ability to succeed in 2013, but they might be repressed by the other teams in their division.

The Mile High Heros

The Rockies have one of the nicest 3-4 combos in baseball. That is Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. They are two five tool players raking day in and day out, but there are six other players and the pitcher in that lineup.

1. S. Fowler CF      117 OPS+
2. R. Pacheco 3B    91 OPS+
3. L. Gonzalez RF   119 OPS+
4. R. Tulowitzki SS 111 OPS+
5. L. Helton 1B       87 OPS+
6. R. Cuddyer LF    99 OPS+
7. R. Rosario C       107 OPS+
8. S. Herrera 2B      69 OPS+

Pitching in the mile high city is not an easy task. Pitchers have been been plagued with high earned run averages for years. The Rockies have a rotation but is subject to change almost regularly due to repeated failure to succeed.

1. R. Jhoulys Chacin 4.48 ERA
2. R. Drew Pomeranz 4.93 ERA
3. L. Jorge de la Rosa 3.51 ERA in 2011
4. R. Tyler Chatwood  5.43 ERA
5. R. Christian Friedrich 6.17 ERA

In Colorado, games are closed by Rafael Betancort. He is one of the few pitchers who has success with the Rockies. He has posted a sub 3.00 ERA his passed two seasons and in 2012 recorded 31 saves. Rex Brothers is also in the pen. He has had some success in Coloardo, but that is basically all for the Rockies in terms of pitching.

I project 71 wins for the Rockies in 2013

David Price and his dog Astro. Astro has been in many commercials. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have a unique way of winning games. They do it on limited budgets. The only big name in their 2013 lineup is Evan Longoria. BJ Upton is with the Braves and Calros Pena is with the Astros. Longoria will be along side Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist to produce runs in 2013. You should expect to see super prospect Wil Myers sometime during the season.

1. R. Jennings CF    97 OPS+
2. L. Fuld LF          83 OPS+    
3. R. Longoria 3B  149 OPS+
4. L. Joyce RF        116 OPS+
5. S. Zobrist 2B       138 OPS+
6. L. Scott DH         101 OPS+
7. R. Escobar SS      75 OPS+
8. L. Loney 1B         73 OPS+
9. R. Jimenez C        83 OPS+

The Rays have an excellent pitching rotation, even with the trade of James Sheilds to the Royals. They are led by AL Cy Young Award winner David Price. Also there are high hopes and high expectations for Matt Moore in his second season.

1. L. David Price 2.56 ERA
2. R. Jeremy Hellickson 3.10 ERA
3. L. Matt Moore 3.81 ERA
4. R. Alex Cobb 4.03 ERA
5. R. Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) 5.25 ERA in 2011

Fernando Rodney didn't get enough Cy Young Award consideration. He pitched 74 innings with a 0.60 ERA. That is a crazy number and he record 48 saves. The Rays definitely have a good closer for the 2013 season. Usually the Rays find a few guys and they end up doing well out of the bullpen every year. It is the same way this year with the exceptions of Kyle Farnsworth and Jake McGee. Farnsworth had success with the Rays in 2011 and spotted a 4.00 ERA in 2012, but McGee sported a 1.95 ERA in 2013 dominating the American League.

I project 84 wins for the Rays in 2013.



 

Brotherly Love

The City of Brotherly Love made another move yesterday. Starting pitcher Joe Blanton was traded to the Dodgers for cash or a player to be named later. The Dodgers missed on trading for Ryan Dempster, so they downgraded a bit and got Joe Blanton. Blanton hasn't been terrible in 2012, holding a 4.59 ERA over 133.1 innings pitched. The Dodgers also claimed Cliff Lee off of waivers. The Phillies will have to withdraw Lee from waivers or he and his contract will be taken by the Dodgers.

Another story about brotherly love involves two brothers in baseball. Both Justin and BJ Upton hit a home run last night. Their homers were significant because for both of them it was the 100th of their career. Justin Upton plays for the Arizona Diamondbacks and is 24 years old. BJ Upton plays for the Tampa Bay Rays and is 27 years old. What a coincidence that two bothers playing for different teams will hit their 100th home run on the same day. Congrats to both of them.