Is The Price Right?

The Tampa Bay Rays have expressed interest in trading David Price. We all know that he will be traded, the question is when, and to who? The Rays simply can't afford to pay David Price through his final year of arbitration. Price's salary for the 2014 season is already at $14 Million and should move up to at least $18 Million for the next season. When he hits free agency, you can bet the former Cy Young Award winner will sign a contract similar to that of CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Justin Verlander; establishing himself as one of the most elite starters in the game.

David Price

Price is a three time All Star and a Cy Young Award winner who will be turning 29 in August of this year. The home grown lefty found his groove in just his second full season in 2010 with a 19-6 record, a 2.72 ERA, and 188 strikeouts in 208.2 innings pitched. The following season his ERA shot up .77 points to a still respectable 3.49 ERA. He had a 12-13 record with 218 strikeouts in 224.1 innings pitched. 2012 was the season where Price won the American League Cy Young Award and he earned it. He brought he ERA down .93 runs to 2.56, while sporting a 20-5 record and striking out 205 in 211 innings pitched. In 2013 Price started off terribly with a 5.24 ERA in 9 starts, which can be connected to his first major injury, a tricep strain. He would go on to pitch a good season with a 3.33 ERA, 151 strikeouts, and a 10-8 record in 186.2 innings pitched.

Price usually finishes his seasons strong, but in 2014 he is already having a pretty nice season. With a 3.81 ERA and a league leading 133 strikeouts in 115.2 innings pitched Price is going to be a hot commodity. He has vocalized that he wants to be on a winning team, and the Rays have made it clear that they will be making trades at the deadline. The Rays also have several other pieces that can help a team such as Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist, maybe even newly acquired Grant Balfour if he can turn his season around.

James Shields

There has been some talk that Price is on the decline, but I believe his stuff is good enough to pitch through a velocity decline. In 2010 his average fastball velocity was 95.3, then 94.7 in 2011, and 95.5 in 2012. In 2013 he had a spike in ERA from his Cy Young season and a tricep injury, which could correlate to his 93.4 average fastball velocity. In 2014 his average fastball velocity is at 93.3. Its only a 2 mph difference, but if the trend continues like it did with CC Sabathia, trading for Price and signing him to a long extension could be problematic.

The Rays have said they want a pitcher who is close to Major League ready and at least another good prospect, similar to the James Shields trade. The Kansas City Royals gave up their top prospect, Wil Myers, and their top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi for Shields who has worked out well for them, but Price is in an entirely different class. It will take a big bundle of prospects to trade Price at the trade deadline, and a desperate team may do it.

The Rays do not have much catching depth and do not have great catching prospects in the minors. Jose Molina and Ryan Hannigan are not getting the job done. It would not be crazy to the Rays to ask for a young catcher or a good catching prospect in the a trade.

Besides a pitching prospect and a catching prospect the Rays need infield depth. Ben Zobrist has been slightly fluttered around in trade discussions, and he is a very fine player. James Loney is not the best offensive player, and Yunel Escobar was never considered a great player. The Rays may want an infielder whether it be a shortstop, a second baseman, or a first baseman.

Mike Zunino 

The most suitable team I can see trading for Price is the Seattle Mariners. They have all the excess pieces and the prospects. By adding Price to the Mariners, it would give them one of the strongest rotations in the MLB. They would have to part with their starting catcher, but also one of their highest prospects Mike Zunino. They also have Nick Franklin who can play just about anywhere, since he lost his job to Robinson Cano. Finally they can include Justin Smoak in the deal, but the pitcher is going to be the tricky part. The Rays will almost undoubtedly ask for Taijuan Walker, which the Mariners already expressed they will not trade him. Suppliments to Walker may be Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Hultzen, or Danny Farquhar.

My pick for Price is to go to the Mariners and contend with the Athletics down the stretch, but Price may also find a home in St. Louis, Anaheim, New York, Toronto, Cincinnati
, or San Francisco.

From the South

In this post I'm not talking about the geographic south, I'm going to discuss three Cy Young Award wining south paws at different stages in their career. Left handed pitchers generally earn more money than right handed pitchers and all three of these guys will be bringing home the bread in the near future.

CC Sabathia is the first of three south paws in this post. CC will be 33 in July of this year and that means that he has officially passed his prime. He no longer has the 97 mph fastball he did when he won the Cy Young Award in 2007 with the Cleveland Indians, but he continues to pitch effectively. His fastball is steady around 90-93 mph, but now he has learned how to pitch and just not throw. Using a nasty slider and a change up in a handful of combinations, Sabathia has been able to lead the American League with 43.0 innings pitched with a 3.35 ERA. In four or five years the big man may run into troubles, but he is smart enough to pitch effectively the rest of his career, but it is for sure that he will not be in contention for a Cy Young Award in future seasons.

David Price is the second of three south paws in this post. Price will be 28 in August of this year and that means he will be entering his prime. Price can get you out in a number of ways. He can blow a 95 mph fastball by you or make you look silly on a change up. Being drafted by and brought up by the Rays, Prince knows how to pitch the right way. He can give you 200+ innings and a sub 3.00 ERA on top of that. Price win the Cy Young Award in 2012, and it shouldn't be the last of his success, but that success may not come with the Rays. Price will soon be a free agent and he is with an organization that has trouble holding onto great talent. Price will be paid a large sum of money and if it happens to be a team on the West Coast, you can expect a few great seasons from the talented lefty.

Clayton Kershaw is the third and final south paw in this post. Kershaw turned 25 in March of this year and everyone is amazed by the success he has already has. We have no idea where the limit is on the ace of the Dodgers. Three consecutive seasons with 200+ IP, a sub 3.00 ERA, and 200+ strikeouts is phenomenal for a pitcher of any age. Statistically he draws a strong comparison to Sandy Koufax and I won't blow that one out of the water, because the Hall of Fame pitcher said he liked Kershaw's stuff. Clayton won the Cy Young Award at the age of 23 and he will definitely win many more in his career, but this season Kershaw and the Dodgers are looking to win the World Series. Judging buy the way the Dodgers are spending money and Kershaw's value to the team, by the time he is a free agent in 2015, Clayton Kershaw will become the highest paid player ever.

Okay here's a bonus south paw. Turing back the clock and going back to 1995, Andy Pettitte has found the fountain of youth. The lefty will be 41 years old in June, but you would never know. His fastball sits around 87-88 mph, but he shows a masterful slider and pinpoint control. In 12 starts in 2012 Pettitte pitched to a 2.87 ERA, and now in 2013 he has pitched to a 2.22 ERA eating some innings along the way. Pettitte never won a Cy Young Award, but I'm sure he's happy with his 5 World Series victories. Also during Pettite's younger days his lowest ERA was 2.88 so its very odd to say that Dandy Andy is performing better than ever.

Highs and Lows

The Rockies are mile high and well, the Rays are at sea level. Both of these teams have the ability to succeed in 2013, but they might be repressed by the other teams in their division.

The Mile High Heros

The Rockies have one of the nicest 3-4 combos in baseball. That is Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. They are two five tool players raking day in and day out, but there are six other players and the pitcher in that lineup.

1. S. Fowler CF      117 OPS+
2. R. Pacheco 3B    91 OPS+
3. L. Gonzalez RF   119 OPS+
4. R. Tulowitzki SS 111 OPS+
5. L. Helton 1B       87 OPS+
6. R. Cuddyer LF    99 OPS+
7. R. Rosario C       107 OPS+
8. S. Herrera 2B      69 OPS+

Pitching in the mile high city is not an easy task. Pitchers have been been plagued with high earned run averages for years. The Rockies have a rotation but is subject to change almost regularly due to repeated failure to succeed.

1. R. Jhoulys Chacin 4.48 ERA
2. R. Drew Pomeranz 4.93 ERA
3. L. Jorge de la Rosa 3.51 ERA in 2011
4. R. Tyler Chatwood  5.43 ERA
5. R. Christian Friedrich 6.17 ERA

In Colorado, games are closed by Rafael Betancort. He is one of the few pitchers who has success with the Rockies. He has posted a sub 3.00 ERA his passed two seasons and in 2012 recorded 31 saves. Rex Brothers is also in the pen. He has had some success in Coloardo, but that is basically all for the Rockies in terms of pitching.

I project 71 wins for the Rockies in 2013

David Price and his dog Astro. Astro has been in many commercials. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have a unique way of winning games. They do it on limited budgets. The only big name in their 2013 lineup is Evan Longoria. BJ Upton is with the Braves and Calros Pena is with the Astros. Longoria will be along side Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist to produce runs in 2013. You should expect to see super prospect Wil Myers sometime during the season.

1. R. Jennings CF    97 OPS+
2. L. Fuld LF          83 OPS+    
3. R. Longoria 3B  149 OPS+
4. L. Joyce RF        116 OPS+
5. S. Zobrist 2B       138 OPS+
6. L. Scott DH         101 OPS+
7. R. Escobar SS      75 OPS+
8. L. Loney 1B         73 OPS+
9. R. Jimenez C        83 OPS+

The Rays have an excellent pitching rotation, even with the trade of James Sheilds to the Royals. They are led by AL Cy Young Award winner David Price. Also there are high hopes and high expectations for Matt Moore in his second season.

1. L. David Price 2.56 ERA
2. R. Jeremy Hellickson 3.10 ERA
3. L. Matt Moore 3.81 ERA
4. R. Alex Cobb 4.03 ERA
5. R. Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) 5.25 ERA in 2011

Fernando Rodney didn't get enough Cy Young Award consideration. He pitched 74 innings with a 0.60 ERA. That is a crazy number and he record 48 saves. The Rays definitely have a good closer for the 2013 season. Usually the Rays find a few guys and they end up doing well out of the bullpen every year. It is the same way this year with the exceptions of Kyle Farnsworth and Jake McGee. Farnsworth had success with the Rays in 2011 and spotted a 4.00 ERA in 2012, but McGee sported a 1.95 ERA in 2013 dominating the American League.

I project 84 wins for the Rays in 2013.



 

The Tampa Bay Rays

In 2011 The Rays made the playoffs after the miraculous game 162. That day game 162 took place will go down in history. The Rays finished with a record of 91-71 and won the wild card, but were eliminated by The Texas Ranges in the ALDS.

I don't know how The Rays managed to get four playoff appearances since 2008 with a payroll under $80 million. They do things like extending players, such as Even Logoria and Matt Moore when they are young. They offer these contracts for a long time favoring the team, and offering less money than the player would deserve in the future.

The Rays strengthened their lineup by bringing back Carlos Pena. He has hit 172 home runs since 2007, giving him an average of 34.4 home runs a year. He is a definite slugger. His defense is also very under rated, he earned a gold glove award in 2008. They also have the face of their franchise Even Longoria. Longoria is 26 and has 4 years in the major leagues. He has a .360 on base percentage and a .515 slugging percentage over that time. He is a definite force to be reckoned with. The Rays also have the most under rated player in all of baseball, he is Ben Zobrist. This guy can play almost every position and he has played 150 or more games for the past 3 seasons. He has a .367 OBP over those 3 years with an average of 19 home runs and 85 RBI's. People underrate him and I don't know why.

Lets not forget about The Ray's rotation. David Price emerged on the scene in 2010 finishing second in the Cy Young voting, but in 2011 he had a fluctuation in ERA. He had a 3.49 ERA in 2011 which is acceptable seeing that he pitched 224 innings and had 212 strikeouts. The star pitcher for The Rays in 2011 was James Shields. Shields pitched 249 innings with a 2.82 ERA and 225 strikeouts. That was good enough for him to finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting. Finally Matt Moore is the young 22 year old left hander for The Rays who was miraculous for The Rays in the short time we saw him in 2011. He is currently rated the number 1 pitching prospect and has a lot to prove.

I honestly don't know how The Rays finished ball games. They don't have any notable relievers. Kyle Farnsworth picked up 25 saves with a 2.18 ERA over 57 innings pitched. So I guess he took the role of the closer for The Rays.He was really the only one worth mentioning. The Rays pretty much stitched things together for the other innings.

The final thing worth discussing is BJ Upton. Upton had 1 good season in 2007, collecting a .386 on base percentage and a .508 slugging percentage. Since then he took has been taking a steep decline. In 2011 he bounced back a little bit collecting a .331 on base percentage and a .429 slugging percentage . I expect him to be on the climb again and help The Rays offensively this season.