The Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are set up to have another bad season with very few additions and lost some pretty big parts of their team. They did sign free agent starter Matt Garza to strengthen their rotation, but regardless the Brewers do not look good in 2014.

Corey Hart signed with the Mariners, so the Brewers signed Mark Reynolds as his replacement at first base. The Brewers also traded outfielder Aoki to the Royals in exchange for Wil Smith, not the actor. They still have a solid lineup, but it will have to work together to be successful in 2014. Here is how the lineup may look in 2014.

1. R. Jean Segura         SS 103 OPS++
2. S. Rickie Weeks        2B 80 OPS++
3. R. Ryan Braun           LF 134 OPS+
4. R. Carlos Gomez      CF  126 OPS+
5. R. Aramis Ramirez     3B 125 OPS+
6. R. Jonathon Lucroy     C 114 OPS+
7. R. Khris Davis          RF 153 OPS+
8. R. Mark Reynolds     1B 96 OPS+

The pitching rotation for the Brewers looks pretty decent, but compared to other powers in the NL Central they are not that good. I don't have much to say about the rotation for the Brewers, so here is how their rotation may look in 2014.

1. R. Matt Garza          106 ERA+
2. R. Kyle Lohse          117 ERA+
3. R. Yovani Gallardo     94 ERA+
4. R. Marco Estrada      102 ERA+
5. R, Tyler Thronburg   195 ERA+

After trading him last deadline the Brewers will also reunite with Francisco Rodriguez, the team he was upset to be traded to by the Mets. He will most likely be the closer as John Axford signed with the Cleveland Indians.  Jim Henderson, Michael Friers, and Will Smith all all probably be in the bullpen in 2014.

Brewers Sign Matt Garza

Matt Garza

Matt Garza and the Milwaukee Brewers have agreed to a 4 year $52 Million deal. The Brewers already have a steady rotation with Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse who pitched to a 4.18 ERA and 3.35 ERA respectively. Garza will slot in nicely to the number two spot in the rotation for the Brewers with his 3.82 ERA in 155 innings pitched between the Cubs and the Rangers. The fact that this deal is coming almost immediately after the Masahiro Tanaka signing is not coincidental. Almost all of the starting pitchers on the market waited for Tanaka to set the bar so they can feed of the desperation of teams who missed out on the Japanese ace.  Garza found much more success with the Cubs than the Rangers on basic statistics but his ERA+ which is weighted for home ballpark differed by 30 points, so perhaps returning to a big ballpark will be beneficial for Garza.

Aoki Traded to Royals. Red Sox Sign Mujica

How does Aoki look in his new uniform? 

In the hunt for a right fielder the Royals acquired well rounded outfielder Norichika Aoki from the Brewers in exchange for left handed pitcher Will Smith. Aoki will be 32 next season and has 2 seasons under his belt, and those two seasons were pretty successful. He played 151 and 155 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively with nearly identical batting averages and on base percentages both seasons at .287 and .355. Aoki also features speed stealing 30 bases in 2012 and 20 bases in 2013, but being caught much more in 2013. Smith will be 24 in 2014 and has a mixture of succss and failure in his first two seasons. He sported a 5.32 ERA in 89.2 innings in his rookie year of 2012 and an ERA of 3.24 in 3.24 in 33.1 innings the following season. The chances of the Royals signing Carlos Beltran are now lowered.

Mujica will join a bullpen with Japanese duo Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara with Uehara as a closer. Mujica played with the Marlins and Cardinals the last 3 seasons and gathered 206 innings and a 2.93 ERA. Mujica closed for the Cardinals in 2013 after closer Jason Motte had to have Tommy John surgery. He eventually led the Cardinals to the World Series. Mujica is a great addition to the Red Sox bullpen. The deal is reported to be 2 years $9.5 Million.

Bringing K's to Baltimore and MM's to Boston

The Baltimore Orioles acquired relief pitcher Francisco Rodriguez, also known as K-Rod, from the Milwaukee Brewers in the wake of Braun's suspension. The Orioles loss part of their bullpen when trading for starting pitcher Scott Feldman of the Cubs at the time. For Feldman Pedro Strop had to go to Chicago, so now K-Rod will replace him. Rodriguez is having a great season. He has a 1.09 ERA in   24.2 innings pitched. He will set up for closer Jim Johnson in a great bullpen. Going to the Cubs in the trade is minor league infielder Nick Delmonico.

Dustin Pedroia is now a richer man. The 2008 MVP has finally cashed out. He is ranked as the second best second baseman in baseball, behind Robinson Cano and now he has the salary to prove it. Pedroia signed a 7 year $100 MM contract with the Boston Red Sox most likely making him a member of the Red Sox for life. I think the sub $15 MM annual salary is a steal for the Red Sox considering the stats he has provided.

Pedroia has a 119 OPS+ during the period of 2007-2013, that is well above average, 19% above average to be exact. Also because OPS+ considers ballparks he is tearing it up. Pedroia has also featured decent speed stealing 116 bases in the 7 year period, not to mention terrific defense considering his 2 gold gloves. Pedroia is a $18 MM+ a year player, especially with an average annual WAR of 5.27. The reason why the Red Sox are in first place is because of Pedroia, and he will be the basis for the team for the next 7 years. He will be 37 when the contract concludes, and that is well played indeed.
 

Fool Me Once

It appears Ryan Braun will not fool Major League Baseball again. Once before the slugger had been accused of PED usage and he escaped on a technicality and delivered a seemingly honest speech. Braun will be suspended for his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal. Major League Baseball provided astonishing amounts of evidence to Braun and his representatives and agreed to not appeal his suspension. The final verdict for the 2011 NL MVP is a 65 game suspension. The Brewers are already in last place and are selling this trade deadline. The loss of Braun will put the final nail in the coffin for the Brewers this season.You can also expect Alex Rodriguez to be face the consequences for his actions with Biogenesis at more severe levels, because of his previous offenses.

With the loss of Braun you can expect Ramirez, Gallardo, and Rodriguez to be traded this deadline. As for Gomez, Segura, and Lucroy; you can possibly see them move as well.

Speaking of trades, the Rangers and Cubs finally finished the Garza trade today after some adversity. Garza will go to the Rangers in exchange for 1B/3B Mike Olt, two minor league pitchers, and two players to be named later. Olt has been glorified for his bat, but hasn't performed at the Major League level. Matt Garza spent some time on the DL  but has a 3.17 ERA over 71 innings pitched in 2013. Garza will join a rotation with ace Yu Darvish and may pitch for the Rangers as soon as tomorrow.

It's Too Cold Here

The Blue Jays and the Brewers both play in cities too cold for an outdoor stadium. The Brewers may be cold in 2013, but the Blue Jays are certainly expected not to be.

By now you heard the colossal off season the Toronto Blue Jays have had. They enhanced their lineup with the additions of Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, and Emilio Bonifacio.  The power house of Jose Bautista will be healthy and ready to mash in 2013. Here is their lineup:

1. S. Reyes SS              111 OPS+
2. S. Cabrera LF           158 OPS+
3. R. Bautista RF           137 OPS+
4. R. Encarnacion DH    152 OPS+
5. L. Lind 1B                  96 OPS+
6. R. Lawrie 3B              97 OPS+
7. L. Rasmus CF            85 OPS+
8. R. Arencibia C            89 OPS+
9. S. Bonifacio 2B           77 OPS+

The pitching rotation is what blows away everyone about the Toronto Blue Jays. They traded for Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle for Escobar and Hechavaria  with the Marlins. Also they traded for 2012 Cy Young Award winner RA Dickey. The knuckle baller will most likely pitch opening day.

1. R. RA Dickey 2.73 ERA
2. R. Josh Johnson 3.81 ERA
3. L. Mark Buehrle  3.74 ERA
4. R. Brandon Morrow 2.96 ERA
5. L. Rickey Romero  5.77 ERA

The bullpen is led by closer Casey Janssen who pitched to a 2.54 ERA and recorded 22 saves. Darren Oliver, Sergio Santos, Brad Lincoln, and JA Happ are also notable names in the bullpen. All pitched well in 2012 except Santos who was injured, but had had a very successful 2011.

I project 93 wins for the Blue Jays in 2013

The Brewers will have to craw through 2013

The Brewers don't seem bright in 2013. The one bright spot on their team was their lineup. Although it is without Prince Fielder, it still produced in 2012 and everyone expects it to do the same in 2013. Here is how it may look in 2013:

1. L. Aoki CF       110 OPS+
2. R. Weeks 2B    94 OPS+
3. R. Braun LF      158 OPS+
4. R. Ramirez 3B   137 OPS+
5. R. Lucroy C      133 OPS+
6. R. Gonzalez SS 107 OPS+
7. L. Gamel 1B      Not enough games
8. R. Gomez RF    102 OPS+

The pitching rotation for the Brewers used to be their greatest strength, now it is one of their greatest weaknesses. They lost Greinke and Marcum in 2012. The only two pitchers worth noting are Yovani Gallardo (3.66 ERA) and  Tom Gorzelanny (2.88 ERA). The other spots are up for grabs and Gallardo may be traded before the end of 2013.

Francisco Rodriguez holds the record for the most saves in a single season and was a bright spot in the bullpen for the Brewers in 2012, but he still has not signed with any team and it doesn't look like he'll return to Milwaukee. John Axford was great in 2011, but he took a step back in 2012. It doesn't look bright for the Brew Crew in 2013.

I project 72 wins for the Brewers in 2013.  




 

Come and Get Your Halo

Zach Greinke will be pitching for the Angels for at least the rest of 2012. The Angels sent top infield prospect Jean Segura and pitchers Ariel Pena and John Hellweg to the Brewers in exchange for Greinke. The Angels will make the their rotation even stronger than it already was.

With the addition of Greinke the rotation for the Angels will look just like the following:

Weaver: 13-1, 2.26 ERA, 89 K, 115 IP
Wilson: 9-6, 2.89 ERA, 108 K, 131 IP
Greinke: 9-3, 3.44 ERA, 122 K, 123 IP
Haren: 7-8, 4.76 ERA, 89 K, 109 IP
Richards/Santana

Greinke has never pitched in a big market. The Royals and the Brewers don't pack stadiums and don't put too much pressure on the players. Greinke will be put on the spot and will have to perform. He may be working for a possible extension with the Angels if he performs well. He won't be the ace of the staff in Anaheim, so the pressure may not be all on him. With more run support and the excitement of a playoff race i expect Greinke to shine with the sun in Anaheim.

The Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers won the National League central with 96 wins in 2011. In the 2011-2012 off season it looks like The Brewers aren't even going to win the wildcard. they lost Prince fielder to free agency and Ryan Braun has to face a 50 game suspension for a failed test for performing enhancing drugs. The Brewers haven't signed any sluggers besides Aramis Ramirez so there is no one to replace Fielder.

Braun and Fielder used to be the 3-4 bunch for the Brewers combining for 231 RBI's, 71 home runs, a .406 on base percentage, and an OPS+ of 165, which is phenomenal. Now The Brewers have to play 50 games without Braun, the 2011 NL MVP and 162 games without Fielder. The Brewers didn't sign Carlos Pena as a replacement and don't seem to be in the bidding for any of the other remaining possible free agents. A trade might be brewing, but it doesn't seem likely.

The rotation for The Brewers seems pretty stable with Zack Grienke anchoring it. Grienke won 16 games with a 3.86 ERA over 171 innings. The other notable starters are Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf. These three starters combined for 619 innings and a 3.58 ERA. The Brewers have four starters with decent ERA's and can provide a sufficient amount of innings. If they do fail to pitch a decent amount of innings The Brewers have good bullpen. With Axford and Rodriguez in the back end the 8th and 9th innings are almost a given. 


Although the middle of the lineup is significantly weaker, The Brew Crew still has Rickie Weeks and they signed Aramis Ramairez. Weeks hit 20 home runs, had a .350 on base percentage and an OPS+ of 121. Rmairez hit 26 home runs, had a 361 on base percentage, and 136 OPS+. Also Corey Hart hit 26 home runs for The Brewers, but any combination of  these three players will not make up for the combination of Braun and Fielder. 


When Braun returns after his 50 game suspension, The Brewers may be able to compete with The Reds, but they will already be in a hole. with The NL West looking stronger than ever, a wild card also looks out of the equation.   

Performance enhancing drugs

If you haven't already heard the 2011 national league MVP Ryan Braun tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. Ryan Braun claims he has never taken any performance enhancers, but the tests say he has. Not a lot of specifics have been released about the controversy yet, but i assume they will soon.

I was extremely disappointed to hear about this, because athletes who take performance enhancing drugs don't deserve the money, fame, or opportunities that they have abused. There are 25 athletes in Triple A that would love to have that position that you are taking away with your fake artificially produced talent.

Ryan Braun will have to serve a 50 game suspension, just like Manny Ramirez. I am a huge fan of the New York Yankees and I was astonished by the season Alex Rodriguez was having in 2007. When I found out he had taken steroids i was devastated. This is very similar to what Ryan Braun did to all those kids who look up to him in Milwaukee.

To discuss strategy now, the Brewers are pretty much screwed. If they don't sign Prince Fielder, which seems very unlikely, they will have lost their number three and four guys for 50 games. the N.L. central will be deprived of action without Fielder, Braun, and Pujols assuming Fielder signs with a team not in the central. I guess what the fans in the central have to look forward to is Joey Votto.