Big Seasons in 2014

Some players flat out had a terrible 2013 season, others made progress towards becoming better players, and some took a decline. Here are some names that I predict will have great 2014 seasons.

I have no idea why Belt is petting a baby Giraffe 

Brandon Belt

Brandon Belt is entering his age 26 season and has shown that he has patience at the plate. In 2012 and 2013 he had a .360 on base percentage, with his batting average rising from .275 to .289. Belt finally has a secure spot in the Giants lineup and is a much needed part of their offense. Belt showed much more power in 2013 hitting 17 home runs instead of 7 the year previous and 39 doubles instead of 27 the previous year. You can expect Belt to get on base, hit more home runs, and drive in plenty of runs, making 2014 his best year yet.

Justin Masterson

Justin Masterson is going to be a free agent at the end of 2014 season, and historically players preform pretty well in the final year of their contract. Masterson had the second best season of his career in 2013 posting a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings pitched, striking out 195. His best season was 2011 where he had a 3.21 ERA in 216 innings pitched with 158 strikeouts. In 2012 Masterson took a step back and posted a 4.93 ERA, but 2014 will be different. In 2013 we saw a significant decline in hits allowed, previous to 2013 Masterson allowed an average of 207 hits a season, in 2013 he allowed just 156. Previous to 2013 Masterson struck out just an average of 152 per season, and in 2013 he struck out 195. Masterson is a ground ball pitcher striking guys out, he is heading a very good direction and a very big pay day.

Josh Hamilton

Josh Hamilton signed a mega deal with the Los Angeles Angels and did not perform as expected in the first year of the contract. Hamilton had his worst season since 2009 posting a 108 OPS+ although he did play 151 games, hit 21 home runs, and drove in 29 RBIs. We all know the ball does not carry as well in Los Angeles as it does in Texas, but Hamilton has serious power. I think the first year in LA was just Hamilton adjusting. He came into spring training of 2013 lighter, because in Texas he would lose weight quickly throughout the season. Now that he understands what will occur throughout the season in Los Angeles and the fact that it is also very hot in LA, Hamilton will have a great 2014 season.

Coincidentally Lincecum started to do better since he
cut his hair in 2013. 

Tim Lincecum

It seems like I say this every year, but Lincecum has not performed worse than the season before. In 2012 Lincecum had the worst season of his career posting a 5.18 ERA. In 2013 Lincecum dropped his ERA to 4.37. This is similar to the 2010-2011 season drop in ERA Lincecum experienced. In 2010 Lincecum's ERA was at a career high 3.43, in 2011 his ERA dropped 69 points to 2.74. Lincecum started throwing much earlier this off season in a warehouse in Seattle, so he is ready for the season. He said he is just concentrating on getting outs, not strikeouts. You will see a drop in ERA once again. We will probably never see the Lincecum of old again, but you will see a highly effective pitcher. I'm predicting a 75 point drop in ERA and a 3.62 ERA for Lincecum in 2014.

Top 10 by Position

I have evaluated all the teams and now I will do my top 10 by position. The name of the player followed by their team. Both offense and defense are considered for the player's rank. I base the rankings on the player's past three seasons to get a large enough sample size, also accounting for age.

Catcher

1. Buster Posey - San Francisco Giants
2. Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins
3. Yadiar Molina - St. Louis Cardinals
4. Miguel Montero - Arizona Diamond Backs
5. AJ Pierzynski - Texas Rangers
6. Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles
7. Carlos Santana - Cleveland Indians
8. JP Arencibia - Toronto Blue Jays
9. Jared Saltalmaccia - Boston Red Sox
10. Jesus Montero - Seattle Mariners

"I'm the hero San Francisco deserves." 

First Base

1. Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds
2. Albert Pujols - Los Angeles Angels
3. Prince Fielder - Detroit Tigers
4. Adrian Gonzalez - Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox
6. Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees
7. Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies
8. Adam Laroach - Washington Nationals
9. Chris Davis - Baltimore Orioles
10. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins

"Hey Brandon, look at what I can do!"

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano - New York Yankees
2. Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox
3. Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds
4. Jason Kipnis - Cleveland Indians
5. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers
6. Aaron Hill - Arizona Diamond Backs
7. Jose Altuve - Houston Astros
8. Danny Espinosa - Washington Nationals
9. Marco Scuttaro - San Francisco Giants
10. David Murphy - New York Mets

"#Swag"

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
2. Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers
3. David Wright - New York Mets
4. Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Rays
5. Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco Giants
6. Aramis Ramirez - Milwaukee Brewers
7. Chase Headly - San Diego Padres
8. Ryan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals
9. Mike Moustakis - Kansas City Royals
10. Kevin Youkilis - New York Yankees

"You can call me King Cabrera"

Short Stop

1. Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies
2. Starlin Castro - Chicago Cubs
3. Jose Reyes - Toronto Blue Jays
4. Derek Jeter - New York Yankees
5. Hanley Ramirez - Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Elvis Andrus - Texas Rangers
7. Ian Desmond - Washington Nationals
8. JJ Hardy - Baltimore Orioles
9. Alexi Ramirez - Chicago White Sox
10. Erick Aybar - Los Angeles Angels

"I play for which team?"

Left Field

1. Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers
2. Josh Hamilton - Los Angeles Angels
3. Carlos Gonzalez - Colorado Rockies
4. Matt Holliday - St. Louis Cardinals
5. Michael Morse - Seattle Mariners
6. Justin Upton - Atlanta Braves
7. Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals
8. Josh Willingham - Minnesota Twins
9. Jason Kubel - Arizona Diamond Backs
10. Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals

"Spittin seeds like I'm hittin homers."

Center Field

1. Matt Kemp - Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Mike Trout - Los Angeles Angels
4. Adam Jones - Baltimore Orioles
5. Curtis Granderson - New York Yankees
6. BJ Upton - Atlanta Braves
7. Shin-Soo Choo - Cincinnati Reds
8. Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox
9. Angel Pagan - San Francisco Giants
10. Austin Jackson - Detroit Tigers

"What did Cano say?"

Right Field

1. Giancarlo Stanton - Miami Marlins
2. Jason Heyward - Atlanta Braves
3. Jay Bruce - Cincinnati Reds
4. Nick Swisher - Cleveland Indians
5. Andre Ethier - Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Jose Baustista - Toronto Blue Jays
7. Carlos Beltran - St. Lewis Cardinals
8. Hunter Pence - San Francisco Giants
9. Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles
10. Ichiro Suzuki - New York Yankees

"Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one on the field."

Designated Hitters - Top 5

1. David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox
2. Edwin Encarnacion - Toronto Blue Jays
3. Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals
4. Victor Martinez - Detroit Tigers
5. Kendrys Morales - Seattle Mariners

"Hitting singles is too mainstream" 

Starting Pitcher

1. Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
3. Felix Hernandez - Seattle Mariners
4. Jered Weaver - Los Angeles Angels
5. David Price - Tampa Bay Rays
6. RA Dickey - Toronto Blue Jays
7. Matt Cain - San Francisco Giants
8. Stephan Strasburg - Washington Nationals
9. CC Sabathia - New York Yankees
10. Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies

"Koufax said he liked my stuff!"

Closers

1. Craig Kimbrel - Atlanta Braves
2. Aroldis Chapman - Cincinnati Reds
3. Mariano Rivera - New York Yankees
4. Fernando Rodney - Tampa Bay Rays
5. Johnathon Papelbon - Philadelphia Phillies
6. Sergio Romo - San Francisco Giants
7.  Kenley Jansen - Los Angeles Dodgers
8.  Rafael Soriano - Washington Nationals
9. Steve Cishek - Maimi Marlins
10. Jim Johnson - Baltimore Orioles

"Right handed Billy Wagner? How about non left handed Craig Kimbrel?"

Remember it isn't just the players that make a team good. It is how they play together and they players around them.

2011 World Series

The 2011 World Series was one of the most entertaining I have ever watched. The Texas Rangers' powerful offense and the St. Louis Cardinals' devoted fans and star players battled it out in seven games, along the way there were walk off wins and key hits, but what will be the key for these teams in 2013?

The Texas Rangers lost most of their key players from the glory days of 2011, but the bad part is, they replaced them with sub par players. Josh Hamilton signed with the Angels, Mike Napoli signed with the Red Sox, and Michael Young was traded to the Phillies. The Rangers have Jurickson Profar, Lance Berkman, and AJ Pierzynski to replace those three sluggers. The Rangers were very reluctant to put Elvis Andrus in the deal for Justin Upton, so that is why they missed out on the big hitter they need. The main concern is where everyone will play, there has been talk about moving Kinsler to first.

1. R. Andrus SS    91 OPS+
2. S. Profar 2B     .820 OPS in AA
3. R. Beltre 3B      137 OPS+
4. R. Cruz RF        101 OPS+
5. S. Berkman DH 126 OPS+
6. R. Kinsler 1B     95 OPS+
7. L. Pierzynski C   118 OPS+
8. L. Murphy LF     124 OPS+
9. L. Borbon CF     73 OPS+

The Rangers are anchored by Yu Darvish who didn't do as well as expected, but still pretty well. The rotation in Texas is rough, but they will have to push through it.

1. R. Yu Darvish 3.90 ERA
2. R. Colby Lewis 3.43 ERA
3. L. Matt Harrison 3.29 ERA
4. L. Derek Holland  4.67 ERA
5. R. Alexi Ogando 3.27 ERA in bullpen

The bullpen for the Rangers lost super set up man Mike Adams to free agency and Koji Uehara also to free agency. They did sign Joakim Soria to either close or set up for Joe Nathan. Also I expect Neftali Feliz to go back to the bullpen where he has had success previously.

I project 76 wins for the Rangers in 2013.

Both Pujols and Hamilton departed for Anaheim 

The Cardinals made it to the NLCS in 2013 after winning the wild card game and defeating the Nationals in a five game NLDS. They did all of that without Albert Pujols, which shocked many, and they are looking to shock many again in 2013.

1. L. Jay CF         113 OPS+
2. L. Descalso 2B 72 OPS+
3. R. Holliday LF  138 OPS+
4. S. Beltran RF    128 OPS+
5. R. Molina C      137 OPS+
6. R. Craig 1B      137 OPS+
7. R. Freese 3B     129 OPS+
8. R. Kozma SS     no recent stats

Chris Carpenter is out for the entire year and very well could be at the end of his career. The rotation is led by Adam Wainwright, but is without Kyle Lohse. Nobody in the rotation really blows you away theoretically, but Trevor Rosenthal can blow you away with his fast ball.

1. R. Adam Wainwight 3.94 ERA
2. L. Jamie Garcia 3.92 ERA
3. R. Lance Lynn  3.78 ERA
4. R. Jake Westbrook 3.97 ERA
5. R. Trevor Rosenthal 2.78 ERA in bullpen

The Cardinals' have a pretty good bullpen. Jason Motte closes the door in the ninth inning. Lefies Marc Rzepczynski aka every announcers nightmare and Randy Choate are the lefties in the pen. Also in the pen is Shelby Miller and Mitchell Boggs, but expect Miller to compete for the fifth starter spot.

I project 83 wins for the cardinals in 2013.

Reel in the Big Fish

So some crazy stuff has went down in baseball. Trades, free agent signing, etc. Lets start covering all of it.

The Giants resigned center fielder Angel Pagan to a 4 year $40 MM deal. A good move for San Francisco to keep a popular player.

The Texas Rangers sign right handed relief pitcher Joakim Soria to a 2 year $8 MM deal. They lost a lot this off season, so maybe a good bullpen arm will help the Rangers out.

A big surprise came from the Nationals signing starting pitcher Dan Haren to a 1 year $13 MM deal. Haren is a great pitcher coming off a sub par year. Haren in undoubtedly better than Edwin Jackson, and I think Haren is one of the most under rated pitchers in the MLB. He joins the strongest rotation in the MLB with Strausburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmerman.

The Red Sox signed switch hitting outfielder Shane Victorino for 3 years $37 MM. Some say that Victorino signing with the Red Sox may be a sign that they are trying to move Ellsbury. It would be a stupid decision to move Ellsbury. He has a great combo of speed and power. If anything, see how far into the season you get, then trade him.

The San Francisco Giants strike again by signing Post Season hero Marco Scuttaro to a 3 year $20 MM deal. He will man second base and is also a fan favorite in San Francisco. A good move for the Giants.

The White Sox signed infielder Jeff Keppinger to a 3 year $12 MM contract. He is coming off a year where he hit .325/ .367 /.439 in 418 plate appearances for the Tampa Bay Rays. Probably an  improvement over Kevin Youkilis.

The Cardinals signed left handed reliever Randy Choate to a 3 year $7.5 MM deal.

The Angels signed left handed reliever Sean Burnett to a 2 year $8 MM deal. A good pick up for the Angels.

The Phillies traded pitcher Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Twins for center fielder Ben Revere. The speed demon will be a good fit in Philly. He is good on defense and can hit for average. The downside, he has yet to hit a home run at the MLB. The Twins acquire two young starters who have bright futures.

The Red Sox continued the free agent shopping by Signing Koji Uehara to a 1 year $4.25 MM deal. He will be good at the end of games along side Andrew Bailey, the closer.

The Diamond Backs signed starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy to a 2 year $15.5 MM deal. McCarthy took a line drive to the head in the regular season and had to have season ending brain surgery. He is fine now and has reportedly began to throw again. He posted a 3.24 ERA in 2012 and really should have gotten more attention this off season.

The Phillies worked another trade out, this time with the Texas Rangers. They acquired infielder Michael Young in exchange for Josh Lindbolm and a minor league player. The Rangers are eating $10 MM of the $16 MM owed to Young. The Rangers really have been mistreating a player that has been with the franchise for so long. I believe that is why Young was willing to waive his no trade clause.

One of the Big Fish, Zack Geinke signed the largest contract ever for a pitcher with the Los Angeles Dodgers. A 6 year $147 MM contract will be paid out the Greinke who will join a rotation with Clayton Kershaw and Josh Beckett. Lets see if Greinke lives up to the contract.

The Cleveland Indians signed 1B/3B Mark Reynolds to a 1 year $6 MM contact. The power hitter will most likely play first base most of the season.

The Royals acquired starting pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis in exchange for super outfield prospect Wil Myers, starting pitcher Mike Montgomery, pitcher Jake Odorozzi, and third baseman Patrick Leonard. The Royals' rotation is beginning to look very respectable. James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, and Bruce Chen can contend in the AL Central.

The Pirates resigned relief pitcher Jason Grilli to a 2 year $6.75 MM deal. Grilli posted a 2.91 ERA from 2011-2012. He is a good set up man for closer Joel Hanrahan.

The Dodgers also agreed to sign left handed Korean super star Ryu. He signed for 6 years $36 MM. He is untested, but will be pitching in a big park with good defenders.

The Twins signed starting pitcher Kevin Correia to a 2 year $10 MM contract. With Correia, who posted a 4.21 ERA in 2012, the Twins' rotation is looking respectable for seasons to come.

The Royals lost Joakim Soria, but signed George Sherril and Dan Wheeler to minor league deals. Both are question marks, but could be a good addition to the bullpen for the Royals.

Kevin Youkilis joined the dark side according to many Red Sox fans. The Yankees signed the third baseman to a 1 year $12 MM contract. He will be filling in the injured Alex Rodriguez, who is having hip surgery in the near future.

The Reds acquired Shin-Soo Choo in a three team trade with the Diamond Backs and the Indians. Super pitching prospect Trevor Bauer will go to the Indians in exchange for a bundle of prospects. Choo is going to play center field for the Reds. I don't think he is a center fielder, but we'll see how this works out.

The Dodgers traded for second baseman Skip Schumaker in exchanged for a short stop prospect. He will join the stacked Dodger lineup.

The Yankees signed fan favorite Ichiro Suzuki to a 2 year $13 MM deal. Ichiro really wanted to return to the Yankees and rejected a greater deal from the Phillies. Depending on what the Yankees do in trades and the free agent market, Ichiro will play right field.

The biggest surprise of the off season, the other Big Fish, Josh Hamilton signed with the Angels for a mega deal for 5 years $125 MM. The Angels are stacked, they have 20 year old super star Mike Trout, multi-time MVP Albert Pujols, homer happy Mark Trumbo, powerful Kendrys Morales and now Josh Hamilton. Expect the Angels to not have a repeat of last season, especially with a deflated Rangers ball club.

The Red Sox signed starting pitcher Ryan Dempster to a 2 year $26.5 MM contract. He is a good fit in Boston. He is the starting pitcher they need along side Jon Lester, the Red Sox are back in it for 2013.

The Tigers resigned Anibal Sanchez to a 5 year $80 MM deal. He went into the off season seeking a 4 year $60 MM deal, but I guess the Tigers really wanted him. He is a good pitcher and still young. The Tigers will be contending with the Royals in 2013.

Saturday Night's Alright for Fighting

What a busy Saturday April 21, 2012. A perfect game, a 9-0 comeback win, a double header between two powerful teams, and several great pitching performances.

Lets start off with The Humber Games. The 21st perfect game in MLB history goes to the 29 year old Phillip Humber. Collecting 9 strikeouts against The Seattle Mariners Humber enters baseball history as another pitcher to complete baseball immortality. A very exciting game for baseball fans all over the country and congratulations to Phillip Humber.

The next thing to talk about is the greatest rivalry in sports history. The Yankees beat the Red Sox in the first game of a 3 game set 6-2. In game 2 of the weekend series The Red Sox looked dominant through the first 6 innings. Starter Felix Doubront pitched 6 innings and gave up just 1 run, a solo home run to Mark Teixeira. Doubront was taken out after the 6th inning with a 9-1 lead. The problem for The Red Sox this season has been the bullpen and yes they did not perform well. A grand slam and a 2 run double for Nick Swisher and a 3 run homer and a 2 run double for Teixeira lead The Yankees to  an momentous 15-9 victory over The Red Sox.

A double header between The Tigers and The Rangers took place on Saturday as well. In the first game Rick Porcello got rocked pitching only 1 inning while giving up 8 runs. The Rangers got an easy victory in that game. In the night game Justin Verlander took the hill for The Tigers and Neftali Feliz took the hill for The Rangers. Feliz went 8 innings giving up 3 runs and Verlander went 6 innings giving up only 1 unearned run. The two teams split the double header.

AJ Burnett made his first start of the season after recovering from an injury in spring training. He pitched 7 shutout innings against The Cardinals. He was acommponied by Justin Verlander, Stephan Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw and Phillip Humber as starters to not allow a run on Saturday.





What will Sunday hold?

The Texas Rangers

In 2011 The Rangers finished with a record of 96-66. They are known as one of the most powerful teams in the MLB. In 2012 they will bring more offense and even some pitching.

The big concern for the Rangers in 2012 is pitching. They lost their ace pitcher CJ Wilson to free agency. He signed with The Angels. Wilson had a 2.94 ERA and 223 innings pitched in 2011, which is remarkable for a pitcher who pitches in that home stadium. To counteract the loss of Wilson The Rangers signed Yu Darvish and are moving Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation. Darvish who pitched in Japan for 5 seasons collected a 1.72 ERA, 1083 strikeouts, 76 wins, and 1024 innings pitched. Darvish will be fun to watch in 2012. If he does anything close to what he did in Japan, he will be a major asset to The Rangers. Neftali Feliz on the other hand was the closer for The Rangers in 2011. I am opposed to moving him to the rotation, but this is what they are doing. Feliz had 32 saves in 2011 and 62 innings pitched. He can pitch a lot of innings, because he came up to the big leagues as a starter, but I don't want The Rangers to have a Joba Chamberlain.

We all know how great The Rangers' lineup is, so here are the stats:

Elvis Andrus: .347 OBP, 37 SB
Ian Kinsler: .355 OBP, 30 SB, 32 HR, 77 RBI
Josh Hamilton: .346 OBP, 25 HR, 94 RBI, 128 OPS+, 121 games
Michael Young: .380 OBP, .474 SLG, 106 RBI
Adrian Beltre: .331 OBP, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 129 OPS+, 124 games
Nelson Cruz: .312 OBP, 29 HR, 87 RBI, 124 games
Mike Napoli: .414 OBP, 30 HR, 75 RBI, 171 OPS, 113 games

The above players are 7 players who had great 2011 seasons. They're only weakness is they need to play the whole season. The Rangers lost more games than they should have without having Hamilton, Napoli, and Beltre in their lineup. The numbers they put up in 113-124 games are miraculous, imagine what they could do in 162 games. If I were the Rangers I wouldn't let Napoli touch the catcher's equipment, because he's a not defensive player. Move him to first base and find a young and effective catcher. This way Naploli can get more at bats and not risk injury as much. A possible trade with the Blue Jays or White Sox would be a good idea for Arencibia r Pierzynski

The bullpen for The Rangers also looks nice. They signed Joe Nathan in the 2011-2012 off season and traded for Mike Adams in the 2011 season. Nathan had an elevated ERA in 2011 coming off surgery from the 2010 season. He had a 4.84 ERA, but perhaps that could be lowered in 2012. As for Mike Adams, he pitched to a 1.47 ERA in 2011 over 73 innings pitched for both The Padres and Rangers, Adams is a definite strength for the Rangers.

The Rangers have a nice team. Starting pitching is the only concern for the Rangers. It will be a nice competition for the AL West between the Angels and The Rangers, but The Rangers may come out on top again. It will be close and maybe they won't lose the World Series three times in a row.