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| Royals make the playoffs for the first time in over 20 years |
Nationals take the World Series over the Orioles
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Monday, September 29, 2014
Playoff Predictions
Nationals take the World Series over the Orioles
Oakland vs Kansas City
It has been a pretty long time since I made a post and a lot of stuff has happened, but a new statistical though has brought me back. So here is my latest thought on how to predict playoff games correctly.
This goes back to the idea of Pitching Performance Value, but this time evaluated with WAR. PPV would evaluate a pitcher's performance after they have pitched. This new stat will make a prediction of the game winner before the game starts.
So if an average pitcher pitches against an average lineup and an above average pitcher pitches against an above average lineup the box score is likely to appear the same. For example if Wei Yin Chen and Sonny Gray were to go head to head the box score may look the same. Wei Yin Chen (Orioles) is an average pitcher against an average lineup and Sonny Gray (Athletics) is an above average pitcher against an above average lineup.
To figure out who might win this game we will look at a ratio of the pitcher's WAR and the offense's WAR as a whole. So take the WAR of the starter and divide by the summation of the WAR of the opposing lineup. Do this for both pitchers and lineups and the greater value is the pitcher who will win. So lets do this for tomorrows game between the Athletics and Royals
The Royals lineup has a WAR of 18.3 and the Athletics lineup has a WAR of 21.3. Jon Lester (Athletics) has a WAR of 4.8 and James Sheilds has a WAR of 3.4.
Royals Ratio = 3.4/ 21.3 = 0.15
Athletics Ratio = 4.8/18.3 = 0.26
The Athletics will win the game tomorrow. It is hard to say what the final score will be, but according to the overall talent of the players and pitchers Oakland has an absolute advantage. Baseball is unpredictable but i'm just trying to quantify it.
This goes back to the idea of Pitching Performance Value, but this time evaluated with WAR. PPV would evaluate a pitcher's performance after they have pitched. This new stat will make a prediction of the game winner before the game starts.
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| Former AL East rivals will go head to head tomorrow |
To figure out who might win this game we will look at a ratio of the pitcher's WAR and the offense's WAR as a whole. So take the WAR of the starter and divide by the summation of the WAR of the opposing lineup. Do this for both pitchers and lineups and the greater value is the pitcher who will win. So lets do this for tomorrows game between the Athletics and Royals
The Royals lineup has a WAR of 18.3 and the Athletics lineup has a WAR of 21.3. Jon Lester (Athletics) has a WAR of 4.8 and James Sheilds has a WAR of 3.4.
Royals Ratio = 3.4/ 21.3 = 0.15
Athletics Ratio = 4.8/18.3 = 0.26
The Athletics will win the game tomorrow. It is hard to say what the final score will be, but according to the overall talent of the players and pitchers Oakland has an absolute advantage. Baseball is unpredictable but i'm just trying to quantify it.
Tuesday, April 1, 2014
Big Seasons in 2014
Some players flat out had a terrible 2013 season, others made progress towards becoming better players, and some took a decline. Here are some names that I predict will have great 2014 seasons.
Brandon Belt
Brandon Belt is entering his age 26 season and has shown that he has patience at the plate. In 2012 and 2013 he had a .360 on base percentage, with his batting average rising from .275 to .289. Belt finally has a secure spot in the Giants lineup and is a much needed part of their offense. Belt showed much more power in 2013 hitting 17 home runs instead of 7 the year previous and 39 doubles instead of 27 the previous year. You can expect Belt to get on base, hit more home runs, and drive in plenty of runs, making 2014 his best year yet.
Justin Masterson
Justin Masterson is going to be a free agent at the end of 2014 season, and historically players preform pretty well in the final year of their contract. Masterson had the second best season of his career in 2013 posting a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings pitched, striking out 195. His best season was 2011 where he had a 3.21 ERA in 216 innings pitched with 158 strikeouts. In 2012 Masterson took a step back and posted a 4.93 ERA, but 2014 will be different. In 2013 we saw a significant decline in hits allowed, previous to 2013 Masterson allowed an average of 207 hits a season, in 2013 he allowed just 156. Previous to 2013 Masterson struck out just an average of 152 per season, and in 2013 he struck out 195. Masterson is a ground ball pitcher striking guys out, he is heading a very good direction and a very big pay day.
Josh Hamilton
Josh Hamilton signed a mega deal with the Los Angeles Angels and did not perform as expected in the first year of the contract. Hamilton had his worst season since 2009 posting a 108 OPS+ although he did play 151 games, hit 21 home runs, and drove in 29 RBIs. We all know the ball does not carry as well in Los Angeles as it does in Texas, but Hamilton has serious power. I think the first year in LA was just Hamilton adjusting. He came into spring training of 2013 lighter, because in Texas he would lose weight quickly throughout the season. Now that he understands what will occur throughout the season in Los Angeles and the fact that it is also very hot in LA, Hamilton will have a great 2014 season.
Tim Lincecum
It seems like I say this every year, but Lincecum has not performed worse than the season before. In 2012 Lincecum had the worst season of his career posting a 5.18 ERA. In 2013 Lincecum dropped his ERA to 4.37. This is similar to the 2010-2011 season drop in ERA Lincecum experienced. In 2010 Lincecum's ERA was at a career high 3.43, in 2011 his ERA dropped 69 points to 2.74. Lincecum started throwing much earlier this off season in a warehouse in Seattle, so he is ready for the season. He said he is just concentrating on getting outs, not strikeouts. You will see a drop in ERA once again. We will probably never see the Lincecum of old again, but you will see a highly effective pitcher. I'm predicting a 75 point drop in ERA and a 3.62 ERA for Lincecum in 2014.
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| I have no idea why Belt is petting a baby Giraffe |
Brandon Belt is entering his age 26 season and has shown that he has patience at the plate. In 2012 and 2013 he had a .360 on base percentage, with his batting average rising from .275 to .289. Belt finally has a secure spot in the Giants lineup and is a much needed part of their offense. Belt showed much more power in 2013 hitting 17 home runs instead of 7 the year previous and 39 doubles instead of 27 the previous year. You can expect Belt to get on base, hit more home runs, and drive in plenty of runs, making 2014 his best year yet.
Justin Masterson
Justin Masterson is going to be a free agent at the end of 2014 season, and historically players preform pretty well in the final year of their contract. Masterson had the second best season of his career in 2013 posting a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings pitched, striking out 195. His best season was 2011 where he had a 3.21 ERA in 216 innings pitched with 158 strikeouts. In 2012 Masterson took a step back and posted a 4.93 ERA, but 2014 will be different. In 2013 we saw a significant decline in hits allowed, previous to 2013 Masterson allowed an average of 207 hits a season, in 2013 he allowed just 156. Previous to 2013 Masterson struck out just an average of 152 per season, and in 2013 he struck out 195. Masterson is a ground ball pitcher striking guys out, he is heading a very good direction and a very big pay day.
Josh Hamilton
Josh Hamilton signed a mega deal with the Los Angeles Angels and did not perform as expected in the first year of the contract. Hamilton had his worst season since 2009 posting a 108 OPS+ although he did play 151 games, hit 21 home runs, and drove in 29 RBIs. We all know the ball does not carry as well in Los Angeles as it does in Texas, but Hamilton has serious power. I think the first year in LA was just Hamilton adjusting. He came into spring training of 2013 lighter, because in Texas he would lose weight quickly throughout the season. Now that he understands what will occur throughout the season in Los Angeles and the fact that it is also very hot in LA, Hamilton will have a great 2014 season.
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| Coincidentally Lincecum started to do better since he cut his hair in 2013. |
It seems like I say this every year, but Lincecum has not performed worse than the season before. In 2012 Lincecum had the worst season of his career posting a 5.18 ERA. In 2013 Lincecum dropped his ERA to 4.37. This is similar to the 2010-2011 season drop in ERA Lincecum experienced. In 2010 Lincecum's ERA was at a career high 3.43, in 2011 his ERA dropped 69 points to 2.74. Lincecum started throwing much earlier this off season in a warehouse in Seattle, so he is ready for the season. He said he is just concentrating on getting outs, not strikeouts. You will see a drop in ERA once again. We will probably never see the Lincecum of old again, but you will see a highly effective pitcher. I'm predicting a 75 point drop in ERA and a 3.62 ERA for Lincecum in 2014.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
2014 Standings and Award Predictions
With the first game on US soil being tomorrow night I will make my predictions for the season. After reviewing my picks from last season, I was off by a little bit, but you can't predict baseball. A W indicates a wild card predictions.
American League East
1. New York Yankees
2. Baltimore Orioles W
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Ray
5. Toronto Blue Jays
American League Central
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins
American League West
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers W
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros
National League East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves W
3. New York Mets
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Miami Marlins
National League Central
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Chicago Cubs
National League West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants W
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
American League MVP - Mike Trout - Los Angeles Angels
National League MVP- Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals
American League Cy Young - Masahiro Tanaka - New York Yankees
National League Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
American League Rookie of the Year - George Springer - Houston Astros
National League Rookie of the Year - Travis d'Arnaud - New York Mets
American League East
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| David Price |
2. Baltimore Orioles W
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Ray
5. Toronto Blue Jays
American League Central
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins
American League West
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| Josh Hamilton |
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers W
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros
National League East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves W
3. New York Mets
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Miami Marlins
National League Central
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| Bryce Harper |
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Chicago Cubs
National League West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants W
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
American League MVP - Mike Trout - Los Angeles Angels
National League MVP- Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals
American League Cy Young - Masahiro Tanaka - New York Yankees
National League Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
American League Rookie of the Year - George Springer - Houston Astros
National League Rookie of the Year - Travis d'Arnaud - New York Mets
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Top Free Agents and Predictions with Contract
1. Robinson Cano- New York Yankees 6 years $144 Million
2. Jacoby Ellsbury- Seattle Mariners 6 years $108 Million
3. Shin Soo Choo- Texas Rangers 4 years $76 Million
4. Brian McCann- Boston Red Sox 5 years $95 Million
5. Masahiro Tanaka- New York Yankees 5 years $105 Million
6. Ervin Santana- San Diego Padres 4 years $70 Million
7. Matt Garza- Atlanta Braves 5 years $94 Million
8. Hiroki Kuroda- Los Angeles Dodgers 1 year $16 Million
9. AJ Burnett- Pittsburgh Pirates 2 years $28 Million
10. Mike Napoli- Colorado Rockies 3 years $50 Million
11. Ubaldo Jimenez- Cleveland Indians 2 years $26 Million
12. Carlos Beltran- Baltimore Orioles 1 year $18 Million
13. Curtis Granderson- Cincinnati Reds 3 years $42 Million
14. Stephan Drew- Washington Nationals 3 years $45 Million
15. Jarrod Saltalamaccia- Texas Rangers 4 years $48 Million
16. Scott Kazmir- Baltimore Orioles 2 years $14 Million
17. Nelson Cruz- Philadelpia Phillies 3 years $33 Million
18. Omar Infante- Los Angeles Dodgers 2 years $20 Million
19. Joe Nathan- Detroit Tigers 1 Year $14 Million
20. Ricky Nolasco- Minnesota Twins 5 years $90 Million
21. Jhonny Peralta- Detroit Tigers 2 years $21 Million
22. Bronson Arroyo- San Francisco Giants 2 years $22 Million
23. Grant Balfour- New York Yankees 2 years $20 Million
24. Kendrys Morales- New York Yankees 1 year $12 Million
25. Josh Johnson- Kansas City Royals 2 years $16 Million
2. Jacoby Ellsbury- Seattle Mariners 6 years $108 Million
3. Shin Soo Choo- Texas Rangers 4 years $76 Million
4. Brian McCann- Boston Red Sox 5 years $95 Million
5. Masahiro Tanaka- New York Yankees 5 years $105 Million
6. Ervin Santana- San Diego Padres 4 years $70 Million
7. Matt Garza- Atlanta Braves 5 years $94 Million
8. Hiroki Kuroda- Los Angeles Dodgers 1 year $16 Million
9. AJ Burnett- Pittsburgh Pirates 2 years $28 Million
10. Mike Napoli- Colorado Rockies 3 years $50 Million
11. Ubaldo Jimenez- Cleveland Indians 2 years $26 Million
12. Carlos Beltran- Baltimore Orioles 1 year $18 Million
13. Curtis Granderson- Cincinnati Reds 3 years $42 Million
14. Stephan Drew- Washington Nationals 3 years $45 Million
15. Jarrod Saltalamaccia- Texas Rangers 4 years $48 Million
16. Scott Kazmir- Baltimore Orioles 2 years $14 Million
17. Nelson Cruz- Philadelpia Phillies 3 years $33 Million
18. Omar Infante- Los Angeles Dodgers 2 years $20 Million
19. Joe Nathan- Detroit Tigers 1 Year $14 Million
20. Ricky Nolasco- Minnesota Twins 5 years $90 Million
21. Jhonny Peralta- Detroit Tigers 2 years $21 Million
22. Bronson Arroyo- San Francisco Giants 2 years $22 Million
23. Grant Balfour- New York Yankees 2 years $20 Million
24. Kendrys Morales- New York Yankees 1 year $12 Million
25. Josh Johnson- Kansas City Royals 2 years $16 Million
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Predictions
I missed opening day because I was out of the country, but I'm back. Here are my predictions for division leaders and award winners throughout baseball.
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wildcard: Seattle Mariners
AL Wildcard: New York Yankees
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Cincinatti Reds
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wildcard: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Atlanta Braves
AL MVP: Robinson Cano
AL Cy Young Award: Jered Weaver
AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers
NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
NL Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: TBD
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wildcard: Seattle Mariners
AL Wildcard: New York Yankees
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Cincinatti Reds
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wildcard: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Atlanta Braves
AL MVP: Robinson Cano
AL Cy Young Award: Jered Weaver
AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers
NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
NL Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: TBD
Thursday, March 1, 2012
2012 Standings Predictions
The standings are ordered from the team with the most wins to the team with the least wins. The teams will be listed with the number of wins following. All of the wins are approximates, the actual number may vary 1-2 wins higher or lower depending on unexpected events during the season. The teams with a "W" following their name means they will get a wild card spot.
American League
East
1. Yankees 98
2. Red Sox 93 W
3. Rays 90
4. Blue Jays 70
5. Orioles 62
Central
1. Tigers 95
2. Indians 83
3. Royals 81
4. Twins 70
5. White Sox 70
West
1. Rangers 94
2. Angels 93 W
3. Mariners 71
4. Athletics 64
Nationals League
East
1. Phillies 96
2.Marlins 92 W
3. Nationals 87
4. Braves 85
5. Mets 63
Central
1. Reds 93
2. Cardinals 92 W
3. Brewers 85
4. Pirates 78
5. Cubs 65
6. Astros 60
West
1. Giants 91*
2. Diamondbacks 91*
3. Dodgers 85
4. Rockies 73
5. Padres 60
* The Giants and The Diamondbacks are so well matched they will finish with exact records. They will have to play a game 163 and the winner will go on and win the division. I predict the winner of game 163 to be the Giants.
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