2014 Standings and Award Predictions

With the first game on US soil being tomorrow night I will make my predictions for the season. After reviewing my picks from last season, I was off by a little bit, but you can't predict baseball. A W indicates a wild card predictions.

American League East

David Price

1. New York Yankees
2. Baltimore Orioles W
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Ray
5. Toronto Blue Jays

American League Central

1. Kansas City Royals
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

American League West

Josh Hamilton

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers W
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

National League East

1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves W
3. New York Mets
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Miami Marlins

National League Central

Bryce Harper

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Chicago Cubs

National League West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants W
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres


American League MVP - Mike Trout - Los Angeles Angels
National League MVP- Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals

American League Cy Young - Masahiro Tanaka - New York Yankees
National League Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers

American League Rookie of the Year - George Springer - Houston Astros
National League Rookie of the Year - Travis d'Arnaud - New York Mets

The Off Season

Hayes Craze Baseball is returning better than ever. The off season has begun and with a dull free agent class, this off season will be one of the hottest off seasons in the past decade.

The awards for Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player and Manager of the Year were announced this past week and the recipients were pretty obvious.

Cy Young Award
National League: Clayton Kersha:1.83 ERA, 16 Wins, 232 K, 236 IP
American League:Max Scherzer:2.90 ERA, 21 Wins. 240 K, 214 IP

Rookie of the Year
National League:Jose Fernandez 2.19 ERA, 12 Wins, 187 K, 172 IP
American League: .293 avg, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB

Most Valuable Player
National League: Andrew McCutchen .317 avg, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 27 SB
American League: Miguel Cabrera .348 avg, 44 HR, 137 RBI. 3 SB

Manager of the Year
National League: Clint Hurdle 94 wins, National League Central Division Title
American League: Terry Francona 92 wins, American League Wild Card

The free agent pool this year is looking bleak with just a few big names, such as Robinson Cano, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Shin Soo Choo, and Masahiro Tanaka. Several veterans are also featured in this free agent class, such as Roy Halladay, Hiroki Kuroda and Tim Hudson. This off season will be very reliant on trades. Names like Matt Kemp, Elvis Andrus, David Price, Matt Weiters, Shelby Miller, and Mark Trumbo have already been labeled as available, so be sure to look out for those big names along with plenty of others to be on the move.

I will be underlining every major acquisition this off season with new lineups and pitching rotations incorporated with the new additions.

The All Star Break

The Home Run Derby was just shy of amazing. Yoenis Cespedes put on a show by blasting 17 home runs in the first round and eventually winning the entire competition. My pick Bryce Harper was the runner up with a total of 24 home runs, conveniently 8 in each round.

The All Star Game itself was all American League. The AL pitching combined to pitch a shutout and the offense scored 3 runs. Two runs came off of Diamondback's starter Patrick Corbin and the third off of Braves' closer Craig Kimbrel.

The highlight of the night was the entrance of Mariano Rivera to his final all star appearance. Every player, umpire, coach, and crew member cleare
d the field and Rivera walked into to the hymns of Enter Sandman all by himself. The ovation was electrifying, loud, and actually a quite touching. The respect the fans, the players, and everyone for that matter have for Rivera is just amazing. He pitched a perfect 8th inning and helped the American League secure home field advantage in the World Series: Somewhere he also wishes to have another ovation.

Robinson Cano was hit on the knee by Matt Harvey in his first at bat. It was of course an accident, but something the Yankees cannot afford. Cano tried to stay in the game, but was taken out before the end of the top of the first. Tests came back negative and reports are that Cano will play in the game against the Red Sox Friday night.

My first half awards:

American League MVP: Miguel Cabrera
American League Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez
American League Rookie of the Year: Jose Iglesias

National League MVP: Yadier Molina
National League Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw
National League Rookie of the Year: Yasiel Puig

There are
also reports that the Texas Rangers are on the verge of acquiring Matt Garza

MVP Race

Before I preach about MVP candidates I'll let you know about the Silver Slugger Awards and the Gold Glove Awards.

2012 AL & NL Silver Slugger Awards :
C: Pierzynski , Posey
1B: Fielder , Laroche
2B: Cano , Hill
3B: Cabrera , Headley

SS: Jeter , Desmond
OF: Trout/Willingham/Hamilton , Braun/Mccutchen/Bruce
DH: Butler
P: Strasburg

2012 AL & NL Gold Glove Awards Awards

C: Wieters, Molina 

1B: Teixeira, LaRoche

2B: Cano, Barney 

3B: Beltre, Headly 

SS: Hardy, Rollins 

LF: Gordon, Gonzalez

CF: Jones, McCutchen 

RF: Reddick, Heyward

P: Hellickson/Peavy, Buehrle 

All players were deserving, but Mike Trout was absolutely robbed for the Gold Glove for center fielders.

Okay speaking of Trout, should he or Miguel Cabrera win the MVP award. Lets break this down into a few categories: at the plate, on the bases, in the field, value to team and overall value. 

Let the best man win. 

At the Plate

At the plate Miguel Cabrera wins hands down. He had a .330 batting average, .393 on base percentage, .606 slugging percentage, 44 home runs, 139 runs batted in, and 109 runs scored.  

Mike Trout at the plate wasn't far off from Cabrera, but he did not win the triple crown. He had a .326 batting average, .399 on base percentage, .564 slugging percentage, 30 home runs, 83 runs batted in, and 129 runs scored 

As you can see Miguel Cabrera was either better or really close to Trout in all the categories. Cabrera wins this category.

On the Bases

I don't even know why i'm writing this. Mike Trout is a fantastic base runner and Miguel Cabrera is not, never was, or never will be a good base runner. Trout had 49 stolen bases and 8 triples. Cabrera had 4 stolen bases and 0 triples.  

Guess who won this category, Trout. 

In the Field

Miguel Cabrera moved from first base to third base this season which isn't easy to do. In 2012 he was a below average third baseman. He ranked 17/30 among third basemen in defense. He made 13 errors and had a .966 fielding percentage. His defensive runs saved was -4. meaning he cost the Tigers 4 runs. 

Mike Trout made highlight reels every night. He had a .988 fielding percentage and made just 4 errors. In the runs saved department, Trout saved 21 runs. 21 runs can be the difference between a win and a loss in 21 games. Out of center fielders he ranked 1/30. 

Mike Trout wins in this category. 

Value to Team

Mike Trout's combination of speed, power, and defense puts him in his own category. He is a five tool player. Holding down center field with Hunter in right and covering ground for the unsteady left fielder Mark Trumbo, Trout's defense is a huge asset to the Angels. Trout also grounded into a  double play just 7 times the entire season. He doesn't kill rallies, he makes them. He turned a single or a double into a double or a triple 49 times by stealing bases. 

The Tigers obviously had to sacrifice some defense to have the best 3-4 combo in baseball with Cabrera-Fielder, but with another defensive nightmare at short stop Cabrera's poor defense is magnified. Cabrera also grounded into a double play 28 times and that led all of baseball in the category. He stole just 4 bases so he didn't create rallies on the bases, he killed them 28 times. He did make up for them by hitting 44 homers and driving in 139, but he could done even more damage, because he had the chance. 

People argue that the Tigers made it to the playoffs and the Angels did not. I'll inform you that Miguel Cabrera had nothing to do with the White Sox falling apart at the end of the season. In fact the Angels actually won 1 more game than the Tigers did! If the Angels were in the central division they would have won the division. 

This category goes to Trout. 

Overall Value

Miguel Cabrera is a veteran, a World Series champion, a leader and boy could he hit. He is the type of player you want on you team. Mike Trout is a rookie you don't have a large sample size of what he could do. 

Miguel Cabrera won the triple crown. A feat that is so rare in baseball it is the first time since 1967. The Overall value of the historical circumstance is huge. 

This category goes to Miguel Cabrera. 

Conclusion

Trout won 3 out of the 5 categories so that means he should win the MVP. With an additional fact that Trout faced better pitchers more often in the AL West it just adds onto his case. I used the word should, because this is a special case. The historical circumstances overwhelm the other circumstances. There have been times where the triple crown winner did not win the MVP, that should not happen this year. I think Miguel Cabrera should win the MVP award because he has accomplished something that few have ever accomplished.  

Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen is the best player in the Major Leagues at the moment. He doesn't get much publicity playing in Pittsburgh but he has a multitude of tools that he can use to help win the game. McCutchen is one of the many reasons the Pirates are contending for the National League Central.

First off McCutchen plays a stellar center field, it seems like there isn't a ball he can't get to. The combination of skill and speed makes him one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. That defense is overlooked often because of his amazing offensive statistics.

In previous years McCutchen's offensive production has been nothing but average. In 2011 his batting average dropped and his on base percentage remained the same, but his power numbers took a tremendous increase. McCutchen has finally put all of the numbers together in 2012. The combination of power, speed, and consistency can be very dangerous for opposing teams.

In the 2012 season McCutchen has a .371/.423/.651 slashline. The slugging percentage is high due to 21 home runs, 5 triples, and 17 doubles. Lets not forget about his speed, McCutchen also has 14 stolen bases in 18 attempts. That is a 78%  success rate on the base pads, anything over 70% is beneficial to an offense.

In 2011 McCutchen hit a total of 23 home runs and it looks like he may eclipse that number soon in the 2012 season. When McCutchen makes contact, 25% of the time that contact results in a line drive which is most likely for a hit and 8% of the time it is home run. In 2011 when McCutchen made contacted it was just a 5% chance of a home run.

If you put speed, power, fielding, contact, and a powerful throwing arm you get Andrew McCutchen. Also you cant overlook his leadership on the Pirates and his ability to be consistent. 

All Star Break

Prince Fielder won the Home Run Derby last night and 615 thousand dollars was donated to charity. Today the All Star Game will get going at 8 PM EST and will be able to be viewed on FOX. We are at the non official half way point of the season, so who would win the awards as of now?

American League

MVP:

Josh Hamilton: 27 HR, .308 AVG, .380 OBP, 75 RBI. Hamilton has carried the Rangers in first place the entire season.

Cy Young:


Jered Weaver: 10 Wins, 1.98 ERA, 73 K, 96.2 IP, .900 WHIP. Weaver missed some time with an injury, but has still been able to give the Angels phenomenal performances every fifth day. 


Rookie of the Year: 


Mike Trout: 12 HR, .341 AVG, .397 OBP, 40 RBI, 26 SB. Trout has surprised many by how great he has been. His tremendous fielding, speed and power are all indications of the great player he will be in years to come. 


National League: 


MVP:


Andrew McCutchen: 18 HR, .362 AVG, .412 OBP, 60 RBI. McCutchen is the main reason why the Pirates are in first place. 


Cy Young: 


RA Dickey: 12 Wins, 2.40 ERA, 123 K, 120.0 IP, .933 WHIP. Dickey has been the story of 2012, tossing back to back 1 hitters just topped it off. 


Rookie of the Year: 


Bryce Harper: 8 HR, .282 AVG, .354 OBP, 25 RBI, 10 SB. Harper is a 19 year old sensation that everyone loves to watch. 

Uno, Dos, Tres, Cuatro

As the Rangers propel through the win column with plenty of support from Josh Hamilton, Hamilton made himself noticed by fans all over baseball last night. In Camden Yards in Baltimore Josh Hamilton hit 4 home runs off of Orioles pitching. Hamilton is the first play to hit 4 home runs in a game since Carlos Delgado in 2003. Watch Hamilton's home runs here.

Not only did Hamilton hit 4 home runs he also hit a double and collected 8 RBI's and went 5-5 in a 10-3 win over the Orioles last night. This is the last year of Hamilton's contract and if he continues to be the dominant hitter he is, an extension or a contract as free agent will be an immense amount of money for the 30 year old outfielder.

I Agree

I agree with the choice of National League MVP. Ryan Braun was the right choice for the award. He had a fantastic season. Referring to my previous post he had a 29% RPP and lead his team to the playoffs. Also he is a good guy and a team player.

Although i have one question. If Verlander won American League MVP how did Kershaw not finish in the MVP voting. He only had 3 less wins than Verlander, probably from a not as successful offense, a better ERA and led the National League in strikeouts. He won the triple crown for pitching as did Verlander in their respective leagues.

You may say that the 3 wins is the main factor, but in 2010 cy young voting Felix Hernandez had 8 fewer wins than CC Sabathia. You may also say that the AL lacked a significant amount of Legitimate MVP candidates. Well Micguel Cabrera had a higher Avg and just a few less home runs and RBI's than Braun.

So why Verlander Win and Kershaw didn't? Why is ERA not a factor this year?I think a player who wins 25% of their teams games deserves to be the most valuable. Verlander won 25% as did Kershaw.

Most Valuable Player

The announcement of Justin Verlander as MVP for the 2011 season upset me a bit. I believe the MVP should belong to an everyday player, a player who plays 162 games a season. I think Granderson on the New York Yankees should have been awarded MVP.

A new statistic that I have created have led me to believe that Granderson is the most valuable player in the A.L. I call this stat RPP (Run Production Probability). This stat determines a player's probability of producing a run per at bat.

To find this stat you calculate the following. (Runs scores - Home runs + Runs batted in /Total plate apearences) X 100. This will give you the chance (Percentage) of that player producing a run in that at bat.

Granderson's RPP was 32.1% for this season, meaning that if he would be given at least 3 at bats per game, he would be likely to score a least one run. Now everyone knows about The miraculous season Alex Rodriguez had in 2007. His RPP was 34.6%, just 2.5% more than Granderson's.

Finally runs win ballgames. The more runs you score, the higher chance you have to win. So if Granderson produced the most runs in the MLB how could he finish fouth in the voting. He provided the highest chance of his team to win.