Oakland vs Kansas City

It has been a pretty long time since I made a post and a lot of stuff has happened, but a new statistical though has brought me back. So here is my latest thought on how to predict playoff games correctly.

This goes back to the idea of Pitching Performance Value, but this time evaluated with WAR. PPV would evaluate a pitcher's performance after they have pitched. This new stat will make a prediction of the game winner before the game starts.

Former AL East rivals will go head to head tomorrow

So if an average pitcher pitches against an average lineup and an above average pitcher pitches against an above average lineup the box score is likely to appear the same. For example if Wei Yin Chen and Sonny Gray were to go head to head the box score may look the same. Wei Yin Chen (Orioles) is an average pitcher against an average lineup and Sonny Gray (Athletics) is an above average pitcher against an above average lineup.

To figure out who might win this game we will look at a ratio of the pitcher's WAR and the offense's WAR as a whole. So take the WAR of the starter and divide by the summation of the WAR of the opposing lineup. Do this for both pitchers and lineups and the greater value is the pitcher who will win. So lets do this for tomorrows game between the Athletics and Royals

The Royals lineup has a WAR of 18.3 and the Athletics lineup has a WAR of 21.3. Jon Lester (Athletics) has a WAR of 4.8 and James Sheilds has a WAR of 3.4.

Royals Ratio = 3.4/ 21.3 = 0.15
Athletics Ratio = 4.8/18.3 = 0.26

The Athletics will win the game tomorrow. It is hard to say what the final score will be, but according to the overall talent of the players and pitchers Oakland has an absolute advantage. Baseball is unpredictable but i'm just trying to quantify it.

The Kansas City Royals

The Royals are a team that I have high hopes for in the 2014 season. They made a few key additions to their team in the off season, to heavily improve parts of their team that were very weak. They are probably one of the most well balanced teams in the Major Leagues and may very well displace the Tigers for first place in the central in 2014.

The lineup consists of not one great player but several above average players. They have 4 guys that c
an hit 20 home runs and maintain a high on base percentage. With names like Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, and Alex Gordon, the Royals are well set for 2014. New additions Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante will anchor the top of the lineup followed by several sluggers. Here is how the lineup may look in 2014.

1. L. Norichika Aoki RF 99 OPS+
2. R. Omar Infante 2B 101 OPS+
3. L. Alex Gordon LF 103 OPS+
4. R. Billy Butler DH 116 OPS+
5. L. Eric Hosmer 1B 118 OPS+
6. R. Salvador Perez C 105 OPS+
7. L. Mike Moustakas 3B 77 OPS+
8. R. Alcides Escobar SS 53 OPS+
9. R. Lorenzo Cain CF 80 OPS+

Some of the best facial hair in
the Major Leagues

The pitching rotation is led by stub James Shields who had a very good season in 2013. He was by the Rays in exchange for prospect Wil Myers who also put up good numbers for the Rays. They did lose Ervin Santana to free agency, but signed lefty Jason Vargas. In fact it was just announced that they will have hard throwing prospect Yordano Ventura be the number five starter. So this is how the rotation for the Royals may look in 2014.

1. R. James Shields 131 ERA+
2. R. Jeremy Guthre 102 ERA+
3. L. Jason Vargas 94 ERA+
4. L. Bruce Chen  126 ERA+
5. R. Yordana Ventura not enough data

Greg Holland emerged as a legitimate closer this past season, but his other comrades in the bullpen did well in late innings. Those other guys in the pen are Luke Hochevar,  Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Aaron Crow. The Royals are well set for 2014 in terms of late inning relief.