Oakland vs Kansas City

It has been a pretty long time since I made a post and a lot of stuff has happened, but a new statistical though has brought me back. So here is my latest thought on how to predict playoff games correctly.

This goes back to the idea of Pitching Performance Value, but this time evaluated with WAR. PPV would evaluate a pitcher's performance after they have pitched. This new stat will make a prediction of the game winner before the game starts.

Former AL East rivals will go head to head tomorrow

So if an average pitcher pitches against an average lineup and an above average pitcher pitches against an above average lineup the box score is likely to appear the same. For example if Wei Yin Chen and Sonny Gray were to go head to head the box score may look the same. Wei Yin Chen (Orioles) is an average pitcher against an average lineup and Sonny Gray (Athletics) is an above average pitcher against an above average lineup.

To figure out who might win this game we will look at a ratio of the pitcher's WAR and the offense's WAR as a whole. So take the WAR of the starter and divide by the summation of the WAR of the opposing lineup. Do this for both pitchers and lineups and the greater value is the pitcher who will win. So lets do this for tomorrows game between the Athletics and Royals

The Royals lineup has a WAR of 18.3 and the Athletics lineup has a WAR of 21.3. Jon Lester (Athletics) has a WAR of 4.8 and James Sheilds has a WAR of 3.4.

Royals Ratio = 3.4/ 21.3 = 0.15
Athletics Ratio = 4.8/18.3 = 0.26

The Athletics will win the game tomorrow. It is hard to say what the final score will be, but according to the overall talent of the players and pitchers Oakland has an absolute advantage. Baseball is unpredictable but i'm just trying to quantify it.

Could The Astros Be the Story of the Year?

The Astros' record this season is 30-37; not impressive by any standards, but they are just five games back in the Wild Card. Although there are some pretty good teams ahead of them the Astros may be able to pull through and make the most unexpected playoff birth in history. They would have to overcome the Twins, Rangers, Indians, Yankees, Royals, Orioles, White Sox and Mariners. In 2013 the Astros finished with a 51-111 record and it appears very likely they will improve on that, but making the playoffs would be incredible.

Matt Dominguez, George  Springer, and Chris Carter

The Astros are succeeding with the bats due to their recent call ups. George Springer has came out swinging and provided much power in the 48 games hes been in. Springer has hit a team leading 12 home runs and 36 RBI. Dexter Fowler and Jose Altuve have been reaching base effectively for the Astros with .393 and .355 respective on base percentages. The 24 stolen bases for Altuve have also proven his value to the team.

Perhaps another reason for the Astros success this season is the pitching. Dallas Keutchel has a 2.38 ERA in 90.2 innings pitched and Collin McHugh has a 2.82 ERA in 54.1 innings pitched. Guys like Scott Feldman and Jared Cosart have ERAs just over 4.00, but a lot of innings covered. The closer position appears to be taken over by Chad Qualls who has completed 9 saves with a 1.99 ERA in 25 games. The lefty Darin Downs has also been a success by posting a 1.32 ERA in 15 games so far this season.

Dallas Keutchel

If the Astros are serious about contending this season they are going to have to acquire some players before the trade deadline. They will need at least one big bat, starting pitcher, and reliever. Perhaps one of the Dodgers' surplus of outfielders. Andre Ethier would make the most sense, because you can throw him right behind Springer in the lineup and add some much needed depth. Maybe Alexei Ramirez to cover the failures that have come from Jonathon Villar at shortstop.

In the area of pitching the Astros definitely have the farm system to get one of the biggest arms on the market. They can go super big and get David Price from the Rays, who have the worst record in baseball. They can also go out and trade for Jeff Samardjiza. If they don't want to go all in they can acquire a third or forth starter.

The Astros can definitely do something this season, its just a matter if they want to do it with home grown players or to make a push with acquisitions.