The Cincinnati Reds

A real throwback of the Reds (2008)

The Reds did not make many acquisitions this off season but they did let Shin Soo Choo sign with the Rangers. They will most likely go with the same crew of players but with Billy Hamilton in center field. The Reds also extended Homer Bailey to a massive 6 year $105 Million deal.

The lineup for the Reds features the leader in on base percentage almost every year, Joey Votto. He gets on base in front of Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce who get on base mostly through contact. That is a formula to score many runs. Here is how the lineup may look in 2014.

1. S. Billy Hamilton      CF not enough data
2. R. Todd Frazier       3B 96 OPS+
3. L. Joey Votto          1B 154 OPS+
4. R. Brandon Phillips   2B 92 OPS+
5. L. Jay Bruce            RF 118 OPS+
6. R. Chris Heisey        LF 88 OPS+
7. R. Zack Cozart        SS 81 OPS+
8. R. Devin Mesoraco  C 77 OPS+

Chapman for team Cuba in the WBC

The Reds pitch in a small ball park which calls for good pitchers and they do have a few. It will be a little more shallow of a rotation with the departure of Bronson Arroyo, but it is still sufficant enough for them to win a lot of games. Here is how the rotation may look in 2014.

1. R. Matt Latos      121 ERA+
2. R. Johnny Cueto  135 ERA+
3. R. Homer Bailey   110 ERA+
4. R. Tony Cingrani  131 ERA+
5. L. Mike Leake      113 ERA+

The Reds also have one of the best bullpens in the Major Leagues with one of the best closers. That closer is the Cuban Missile, flame throw Aroldis Chapman, the bearer of the fastest pitch at 105 MPH. Also in the bullpen is former closer Jonathon Broxton, lefty Sean Marshall, and other studs JJ Hover and Logan Ondrusek.

O-H-I-O

It looks like a promising season for baseball fans in the state of Ohio. The Indians made some awesome additions and the Reds are looking to win the National League Central once again. Who will be the dominant team in Ohio: The Tribe or The Big Red Machine?

The Indians' Bullpen Mafia

The Indians made some tremendous additions to their starting lineup this off season. They signed right fielder Nick Swisher, center fielder Michael Bourn, and first baseman Mark Reynolds too add to an already strong lineup. The Indians also signed veteran Jason Giambi who I believe can make the roster. They have a nice combination of speed and power and I think they can compete with the Tigers in 2013.

1. L. Bourn CF     99 OPS+
2. S. Cabrera SS  115 OPS+
3. S. Swisher RF   126 OPS+
4. S. Santana C     122 OPS+
5. L. Kipnis 2B      103 OPS+
6. R. Reynolds 1B  107 OPS+
7. L. Giambi DH     74 OPS+
8. L. Chisenhall 3B  108 OPS+
9. L. Brantley LF      113 OPS+

The pitching rotation for the Indians is a bit of a question. They traded right fielder Choo in a three team deal with the Reds and Diamond Backs to acquire pitcher Trevor Bauer, who is considered as a top prospect and Major League ready. I think Ubaldo Jimenez will find success in 2013, and Justin Masterson will show us what he is made of. The Indians should sign or trade for a starter to really strengthen their rotation. The perfect candiditates are Lohse and Capuano, both are available and both can make a big impact.

1. R. Justin Masterson 4.93 ERA
2. R. Ubaldo Jimenez 5.40 ERA
3. R. Brett Myers 3.31 ERA in the bullpen
4. R. Trevor Bauer 2.42 ERA in minors
5. R. Zach McAllister 2.98 in minors

The Indians have a decent bullpen anchored by their closer Chirs Perez. They deem the name "Bullpen Mafia" and part of that mafia is Vinnie Pestano who has impressed everyone with a sub 3.00 era two consecutive seasons. Expect the Bullpen Mafia to whack teams in the late innings.

I project 87 wins for the Indians in 2013

Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. The faces of the Reds

The Reds are a contender almost every year, but in recent seasons they are knocked out of the playoffs pretty early. They have a great rotation, a powerful lineup, and a great bullpen. The lineup for the Reds changed a bit from 2013 with the addition of Choo and the subtraction Scott Rolen.

1. L. Choo CF     131 OPS+
2. R. Phillips 2B   96 OPS+
3. L. Votto 1B     174 OPS+
4. L. Bruce RF     118 OPS+
5. R. Ludwich LF 128 OPS+
6. R. Frazier 3B    115 OPS+
7. R. Cozart SS    79 OPS+
8. R. Hanigan C    88 OPS+

The pitching rotation is led by the most under rated starting pitcher, Johnny Cueto. He is followed by some young talent and an established veteran. The well above average rotation pitches in a small park which makes the low ERA's even more amazing.

1. R. Johnny Cueto 2.78 ERA
2. R. Matt Latos 3.48 ERA
3. R. Bronson Arroyo 3.74 ERA
4. R. Homer Bailey 3.68 ERA
5. R. Mike Leake 4.58 ERA

The bullpen is topped off with the Cuban Missile, Aroldis Chapman (1.51 ERA). There has been talk about moving him to the rotation, but if the flame thrower is put in the already great rotation, you might as well kiss his career good bye. The other parts of the bullpen are Jonathon Broxton (2.48 ERA), Sean Marshall (2.51 ERA), Logan Ondrusek (3.46 ERA), and Jose Arrendondo (2.94 ERA).

I project 94 wins for the Reds in 2013  

  

Idiotic Move

Aroldis Chapman is one of my favorite players. He comes in to the game and adds electricity to the crowd. He is fun to watch and exciting to see. Every pitch he throws can eclipse 100 miles per hour. If the Reds convert him into a starter, it would be their biggest mistake since getting rid of Josh Hamilton.

Lets be honest. Even to a true baseball fan, the end of games can be very boring. With all the pitching changes and the left handed and right handed match ups, the games can also feel very elongated. Chapman will come in the 9th or even the 8th and work his magic. The crowd's electricty will return. In tie ball games he can pitch the 9th and 10th inning to get through those innings. 

The Reds already have a nice rotation. Cueto, Latos, Leake, Arroyo, and Bailey is a solid 5. They can still add another pitcher. Greinke, Dempster, Lohse, Jackson, and Dan Haren are still available and are probably affordable for the Reds. 

Chapman has reached 106 miles per hour on his fast ball and that is the kind of thing that drives fans crazy. If he is a starter, you can bet that he may reach 100 miles per hour only a few times in a start. You can also bet that he won't pitch for more than 5 innings very often. So think about it. Would you rather have 5 innings and 3 runs every 5 days or 4 innings, 4 saves, and 0 runs every 5 days. 

Also like Kerry Wood and Joba Chamberlain, a flame throwing starter is definitly high risk of injury.

With Broxton resigning with the Reds and Chapman remaining as the closer, the opposing team won't be able to take the heat at the end of the game. 

Injuries Galore !

Bautista after injuring his wrist

In multiple games that took place yesterday big stars sustained potential injuries. One of the really big ones is a potential injured achilles to the Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz. After Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford returned from injuries and a loss of David Ortiz would be a devastating blow.

Another potential big loss is to the already banged up Blue Jays. In last night's game Jose Bautista hurt his wrist and had to be taken out of the game. The Blue Jays are in last place in the American League East and without the league leader in home runs, their chances of making the playoffs are done.

Perhaps the biggest blow of the day was Joey Votto's knee injury. Votto will undergo arthroscopic surgery and be out for 3-4 weeks. The Reds are in a very tight race with the Cardinals and Pirates. Without the Reds' top slugger these 3-4 weeks could be a drag.

Why Does Everything Happen On Friday?

The first thing to write about is Justin Verlander's dance with a no hitter. The Tigers supplied Verlander with a 6 run lead entering the top of the ninth. Verlander had just over 100 pitches and 12 strikeouts with 1 out into the 9th. Then a fate that happened to so many pitchers before a seeing eye single up the middle. Verlander finished the game with a complete game shutout 1 hit and 2 walks. It would have been his 3rd no hitter.

The second thing that happened on Friday was just dandy. Dandy Andy, Andy Pettitte looked like he was still in the early 2000s with his stellar performance on Friday. Pettitte pitched 8 shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds. He struck out 9 and allowed only 4 hits and 1 walk. Pettitte's fastball was around 87-89 MPH, but it was his curveball and his cutter that looked just masterful. The Reds' hitters just couldn't hit it. The Yankees won 4-0

The Blue Jays beat up on the Mets on Friday night in a 14-5 victory in Toronto. JP Arencibia went 3-5 with 2 home runs, 6 RBI's and 3 runs scored. The Jays had their way with the Mets not only on offense but on pitching.  Ricky Romero pitched 6 innings allowing only 3 hits and 4 walks. He struck out 6.

Kerry Wood was a phenom in the late 90s and early 2000s, but in 2012 he retires from baseball. In his final game with the Cubs Kerry Wood did what he did best, struck out his batter. A 3 pitch strikeout to ride off into the sunset with must be nice. You have to wonder what would the Cubs be like if Mark Prior and Kerry Wood would have stayed healthy, but anyway Wood takes his 4 200+ strikeout seasons home.

Another thing that has been occurring in the past few weeks was a heat up from Albert Pujols. Pujols has a few home runs now, but still isn't his MVP self. He is scoring runs and collecting RBI's and the Angels are winning ballgames. It looks like Pujols may be arriving soon.

Extensions, Extensions, Extensions

On Monday Matt Cain and Joey Votto signed extensions with their teams. Joey Votto's extension was colossal, a 10 year 225 million dollar extension. Matt Cain's deal was 5 years 112.5 million dollars with a club option for 2013.

Matt Cain has pitched effectively for The Giants over his 6 complete seasons. He averages 212 innings every season with an average ERA of 3.39. Although he pitches a lot of innings and gives up few runs he has a losing record due to The Giants' ineffective offense. This contract will have Matt Cain signed through the prime of his career. His average war by season is 3.9. If you put 5 million dollars per win Matt Cain is earning just about what he deserves. Through the years where he is expected to be at his best The Giants win with this contract.

Joey Votto will be playing with The Reds for a very long time. Votto has 2 all star appearances an MVP award and a Gold Glove Award in just four full seasons in the MLB. Votto is destined to be a star. With a 152 OPS+ over that time period Votto is in a category with players like Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Adrian Gonzalez. In recent years Votto's WAR has been through the roof, with a 6.5 WAR last year and a 5.9 WAR in 2010. Votto will be signed until he is in his late 30's. He will be signed through the prime of his career, but also well after that. Will Votto be effective later in his career we don't know, but most likely he wont be. The important part is The Reds have a player locked up for a long time like Barry Larkin.

The Cincinnati Reds

The Reds finished the 2011 season with a record of 79 wins and 83 losses. They had a busy off season and are going to work hard for a division title.

The Reds have the 26 year old right handed pitcher Jonny Cueto. Cueto pitched 156 innings with an ERA of 2.31. Cueto has a lot of talent, but needs to work a little harder. The Reds also have 35 year old Bronson Arroyo.Arroyo is an innings eater. He has pitched 200 innings the past 7 seasons and has a 4.19 ERA over that time. An ERA that high is acceptable over so many innings. Mike Leake is 24 years old and pitched 167 innings with a 3.86 ERA in 2011. Finally The Reds traded for 24 year old right handed pitcher Matt Latos. Latos pitched 184 innings in  2010 and 194 innings in 2011. in 2010 he had a 2.92 and a 3.47 ERA in 2011. Since he is only 24 he will only get better with time. The Reds have a very stable and strong pitching rotation; the 5th spot may be taken by Homer Bailey or Andrew Brackman.

The 2010 MVP award was taken by Joey Votto. In 2011 Votto continued to be a huge offensive threat. In 161 games he hit 29 home runs, 40 doubles, 103 RBI's and had an on base percentage of .416. Votto also won the gold glove award in 2011, showing that he is improving in all aspects of his game. Jay Bruce is the other slugger in the lineup for The Reds. Bruce hit 32 home runs and had a .474 slugging percentage in 2011. Lets not forget about all star second baseman Brandon Phillips. He hit 18 home runs while having a .353 on base percentage and wining the gold glove award.

The Bullpen for The Reds has taken a revolutionary turn for the better. They signed free agent closer Ryan Madson. Madson has pitched wonderfully over the past 2 seasons, collecting a 2.45 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. They also acquired Sean Marshal from The Cubs. Coincidentally the lefty has a 2.45 ERA over the past 2 seasons as well. Aroldis Chapman is the flamethrower in the bullpen for The Reds. Chapman throws 98-100 MPH fast balls consistently and a deadly slider that is 87 MPH. I do not want to get hit with that. Jose Arredondo threw 53 innings in 2011 with an ERA of 3.23 and Nick Masset threw 70 inngs with a 3.71 ERA in 2011. The Reds have a very strong bullpen.

I have the Reds set to win the NL Central in 2011. They will compete with their rivals The Cardinals for the division title. It will be interesting to see the conflict between the 2 rise throughout the 2011 season.