A New Way To Look At Stolen Bases

Stealing a base at the Major League level is one of the hardest things to do in all of sports. In fact here is a video by Sports Science on how it breaks down: Base Stealing .  Stealing bases definitely has its pros because you get the extra base, but some people do not look at it in the right way. Think of a steal of second as turning a single into a double, and a steal of third as turning a double into a triple.

So players who steal a lot of bases often do not have such a high OPS+ mainly because of slugging percentages. Players who steal bases are historically known to be singles hitters. For example Juan Pierre is a career 84 OPS+ hitter, but has an average close to 50 steals a season. In 2012 Ben Revere stole 40 bases but had only an 89 OPS+.

Slugging percentage is calculated as total bases / total at bats. For total bases a single is worth one base, a double is worth two bases, a triple is worth three bases, and a home run is worth four bases. So if a stolen base practically turns a single into a double and a double into a triple then the stolen base should be accounted for in slugging percentage.

Before I elaborate, slugging percentage is often used to determine how well a player will drive in base runners. A player with a high slugging percentage will often hit doubles, triples, and home runs, hence driving in more runners. Additionally they will also get in scoring position better, because they do so from the get go. Slugging percentage has two practicalities.

So incorporating the stolen base into slugging percentage is very easy. Since a stolen base would be taking an additional base without an at bat, the number of at bats stay the same. The number of singles, doubles, triples, and home runs also stay the same. A stolen base would be worth one base and just added to the summation of bases.

One player I want to look at in particular is Jacoby Ellsbury. The Yankees got a lot of heat for signing Ellsbury instead of Robinson Cano. Ellsbury had 124 singles, 31 doubles, 8 triples, 9 home runs, and 52 stolen bases in 2013. He also had 577 at bats giving him a traditional slugging percentage of .426. Because he was caught stealing 4 times and theoretically speaking took away a base, his net stolen bases is what will be used to calculated his slugging percentage with his stolen bases. So Ellsbury's slugging percentage including stolen bases would be .515 ass opposed to .426, 89 points higher.

Robinson Cano's slugging percentage in 2013 was .516 and if you include his 6 net steals, .525. Robinson Cano was and still is a much better baseball player than Jacoby Ellsbury. Cano had a .383 on base percentage as opposed to Ellsbury's .355 on base percentage.  When accounting for stolen bases Cano's OPS was .908 in 2013 and Ellsbury's was .870. Ellsbury was just 38 points behind Cano, statistically speaking that is not very much.

To understand how important the stolen base is to Ellsbury in this particular case Prince Fielder had 32, 38, and 30 home runs and .471, .566, and .528 slugging percentages from 2010-2012 respectively. He did have an on base percentage over .400 each one of those years, but his average .521 slugging percentage is almost exactly Ellsbury's .505 career slugging percentage.Stolen bases are just as important as home runs.

To have some fun with this in 2012 Mike Trout stole 49 bases raising his slugging percentage from .564 to .642.  Miguel Cabrera had a .606 slugging percentage with just 3 net steals. Mike Trout's on base percentage was .399 and Miguel Cabrera's was .393. Giving Mike Trout a 1.041 OPS and Miguel Cabrera a .999 OPS+. They are practically identical, but Trout was stellar on defense and used his speed in additional ways, but Miguel Cabrera won the triple crown in 2012 and won the MVP on the historical basis.

FUN WITH NUMBERS!

Mega Extensions for Trout and Cabrera

These past few days two of the biggest players in the game signed extensions with their current teams. Mike Trout signed a 6 year $144.5 Million deal with the Angels which will carry him until his age 28 season, where he will likely get a deal worth $30 Million in average annual value. Miguel Cabrera signed an 8 year $244.5 Million deal with the Tigers.

The Trout deal is great for both the Angels and Mike Trout. The deal starts off slow with Trout making just $5.25 Million in 2015, $15.25 Million in 2016, $19.25 Million in 2017, then $33.25 Million the three years following. The best part of this contract for the Angels is the fact that Trout will only begin to earn the bulk of the contract when Josh Hamilton's deal ($25 Million average annual salary) is finished. The deal is great for Trout because if he hits the open market, he will be 29 years old. Whether the following contract is with the Angels or another team Trout is likely to get a contract of equal or greater average annual value if he continues how he is playing. Also with Trout being just 22 years old, the timing of this contact may cause Trout to be the richest baseball player of all time.

I do not agree with the Miguel Cabrera deal. Although he has been the most productive hitter in baseball the past three seasons, he is already 30 years old. Cabrera will play out the next two seasons earning $22 Million each season, then the deal will kick in starting 2016. Cabrera will only get older like anyone else, and his fielding will become progressively worse. Cabrera has never been an average fielder anywhere he played at any age. He made 25 errors in 2 seasons at third base, and his range is limited at first base. The second half of this contract is most likely going to be paying for Cabrera to be a designated hitter. I saw a picture on Facebook that Miguel Cabrera will be making $49,000 an at bat for the rest of his career, and the median annual salary in Michigan is $48,000. We all know baseball players are over paid, but when is enough? Is extending  Cabrera really worth the departure of both Fister and Fielder?

Top 30 Outfielders 1-10 for 2014

Since there are three outfield positions and players seem to swap between left, right, and center all the time im just going to bunch all the outfielders together. Also I know many of the people who read this website play fantasy baseball, and outfield is a general position in the draft. There are not any significant players switching positions to the outfield, but defense and previous seasons are always considered in the list. Followed by each player's name is their current team and their OPS+ for the 2013 season.

1. Mike Trout - Los Angeles Angels            179 OPS+
2. Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburg Pirates   158 OPS+
3. Adam Jones - Baltimore Orioles              115 OPS+
4. Carlos Gonzalez - Colorado Rockies       144 OPS+
5. Ryan Braun - Milaukee Brewers             134 OPS+
6. Matt Holliday - St. Louis Cardinals         144 OPS+
7. Shin Soo Choo - Texas Rangers            143 OPS+
8. Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals     133 OPS+
9. Alex Gorden - Kansas City Royals          103 OPS+
10. Giancarlo Stanton - Miami Marlins      
 131 OPS+