Young Guns

The next generation has arrived. We have all noticed that the game seems to be becoming more pitching dominant with each season. $100 MM contracts and extensions are being handed out to ace pitchers both young and old. So far in 2013 some of the best young pitchers have shined brighter than the rest. They are dominant and may become even better with age.

If you haven't heard of him already, you shouldn't call yourself a baseball fan. The Mets' 24 year old starting pitcher has made batter after batter look silly. Harvey has pitched 49.1 innings and struck out 58 batters while claiming an outstanding 1.28 ERA. I think the Mets' know how valuable Harvey actually is and will be careful with him come the end of the season. Pitching him too much could cause severe injury to a young arm. For the Mets', Harvey may be a new beginning for the team, and 2013 could mark the season where they become buyers and not sellers.

This lefty is flying under the radar. Patrick Corbin is the 23 year old stud in the rotation
for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has pitched 40 innings and struck out 32 batters with a 1.80 ERA. The Diamondbacks have a great young rotation, but of the 5 guys in the rotation, Corbin is by the best. With Kennedy, Cahill, Corbin, Miley, and McCarthy the Diamondbacks have one of the mos underrated rotations in the MLB. The point about this rotation I would like to make is that all the pitchers are under 30 years old. Because of their depth, if the Diamondbacks are in contention come the trade deadline, Corbin may be a possible trade chip for a big bat.

Shelby Miller was born in 1990, and 23 years later he is finding much success with the St. Louis Cardinals. The strong right handed pitcher has 36.2 innings under his belt. He possesses a 1.96 ERA and has struck out 38 batters. Miller has measnt a lot to the Cardinals since the injury to Chris Carpenter. He has stepped up big time and has a lot of promise for the future. Miller, Wainwright, Garcia, Lynn, and an underrated Westbrook are getting the job done in St. Louis, but Miller taking the ball every fifth ball and pitching the way he has makes the injury to Carpenter not sting so much to Cardinal fans.

He's a lean mean strike throwing machine. Matt Moore that is, he is one of the many results of the Rays' farm system. The Tampa Bay Rays have the best pitching development farm systems in baseball, but this 23 year old first round pick is successful due to his own talents. Moore has 42 innings pitched, 43 strikeouts and a 2.14 ERA. One rough start in Colorado made that ERA become bloated, but you can expect it to be low the rest of the season. Moore will play a pivotal role in the Rays organization, because he will become the ace of the staff if the team decides to trade David Price or let him walk come free agency.

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A Different View

Buster Posey looking all heroic and stuff. 

There is only player on the field who faces in the opposite direction from the rest. He is covered head to toe in equipment and is undoubtedly the most athletic on the team. I am talking about the catcher; foul tips to the mask, throwing out runners from a crouch, cat like reflexes, calling a game, and of course hitting at the plate. You need to be dedicated to be a catcher, and be ready to take a beating. Here I will discuss some of the best catchers in the league and why they are so.

We have to start off with reining National Leag

ue MVP and two time World Series Champion, Buster Posey. The 26 year old back stop had a masterful year at the plate in 2012. He hit for a .336 batting average to lead the league and had an astounding 171 OPS+. Posey caught 114 games last season, nearly one-fourth  of the season and caught 30% of base stealers. Although defensive metrics are still vague, Posey had a 0.5 defensive WAR last year. Defensively Posey is right near average, but offensively he is the best there is at the position. Buster Posey's 9 year $164 MM contract is definitely a bargain for the Giants.

Beware: do not run. 

From the 2011 World Series Champions, Yadier Molina is without a doubt the best defensive catcher in baseball. In 2012 Molina guided his St. Louis Cardinals to the playoffs via the second Wild Card. For the first year in his career Molina was a strong offensive threat. He had a .315/.373/.501 slash-line which equates to a 137 OPS+. Molina played 136 out of his 138 games at the catcher's position last season, that takes extreme durability. He threw out an amazing 48% of base runners and had an outrageously high 2.6 defensive WAR. Molina's value at the catcher's position is so great that nearly 33% of his total value as a player is due to his defense.

Well played Mauer. 

Once a MVP and once a gold glove award winning catcher, Joe Mauer is no longer the catcher he was in his glory days. In 2012 he played only 74 of his 147 games as the catcher for his Minnesota Twins. Mauer still has his offensive success but not to the extent of the 28 home runs he hit in 2009. Since 2009 Mauer has not hit more than 10 home runs in a season, but he still drives in runs. In 2012 he had a .319/.416/.466 slash-line, playing in a cavern for a stadium that translates to a 140 OPS+. The downside to Joe Mauer is his defense. In 2012 he threw out just 14% of base runners. That could be due to the pitchers not holding runners well, but his -0.9 defensive WAR is another indication of decreasing defensive ability. That means he is below average defensively. I don't know if I would want to pay Mauers salary for him to not hit home runs and to be the designated hitter.

Closing Time

Entering the game in the 9th inning beginning with a slow walk, and then transitioning into a steady jog to the mound, a legend has done this a remarkable 1052 times. He does not enter to the mellow sounds of the band Semisonic, but to the heavy and hypnotizing sounds of 'Enter Sandman' by Metallica. That legend is of course, Mariano Rivera. 

As a young man growing up in Panama, Rivera had his sights on becoming a mechanic and not following in the footsteps of his father, a fisherman. Also growing up in poverty Rivera and his friends had to use milk cartons as gloves and tree branches as bats, but not once had Rivera expected to throw the last pitch in five World Series victories. Its the stuff kids dream of, but Rivera only thought of baseball as a hobby. 

Being signed as an amateur free agent in 1990 a 21 year old Mariano had a five year road to the show, finding much failure along the way. Finally in 1995 Rivera made his debut, and in 1995 he made his only 10 starts of his career. With 67 innings pitched, Rivera's rookie season was nothing close to successful  with a 5.51 ERA. Fortunately for both Rivera and the Yankees, that would be most of the failure in his career. 

Rivera would pitch 107.2 innings in 1996 with a 2.09 ERA and 130 strikeouts, finishing third in Cy Young Award balloting. In 1997 Rivera took over a closer as John Wetland went to pitch for the Texas Rangers, and Rivera ran away with it. With his new responsibility, the then 27 year old was cool, calm, and collected on the mound, but his devastating and iconic cut fastball was something wicked. 

As we skip ahead to 2012, Rivera had flirted with the idea of retirement for a number of years, but this appeared to be the year. We all expected it would be the last year the legend would pitch, but a devastating injury put him out for the entire year. The man who everyone loves tore his ACL and that ended his season, but then a reassuring quote by Rivera brought all the fans and media back to life. "I will be back." Just five words, but they meant so much to everyone. 

The man is now 43 years old and has tallied up 1230 innings, 618 saves, 1130 strikeouts, 12 all star games, 5 world series and a 2.21 ERA. He is defying time itself, by throwing his cutter at 90 miles per hour consistently with accuracy. One month into the season Rivera has continued his success and doesn't appear to have skipped a beat. He has collected 10 saves in 10 attempts while striking out 11 with a 1.74 ERA. 

Mariano Rivera is my favorite baseball player ever, his autographed baseball is my prized possession and when he enters a game, its almost certain the Yankees will have a win. 'The Sandman' put all the rumors to sleep this year in spring training and confirmed that this will be his last season. Rivera has stated that throwing his last pitch to win the World Series is how he wants his career to end, and that's the way it should end. 

The living legend has successfully closed the door 618 times, and come October, he will be closing the door on his career. 

Sayonara Mo. 

From the South

In this post I'm not talking about the geographic south, I'm going to discuss three Cy Young Award wining south paws at different stages in their career. Left handed pitchers generally earn more money than right handed pitchers and all three of these guys will be bringing home the bread in the near future.

CC Sabathia is the first of three south paws in this post. CC will be 33 in July of this year and that means that he has officially passed his prime. He no longer has the 97 mph fastball he did when he won the Cy Young Award in 2007 with the Cleveland Indians, but he continues to pitch effectively. His fastball is steady around 90-93 mph, but now he has learned how to pitch and just not throw. Using a nasty slider and a change up in a handful of combinations, Sabathia has been able to lead the American League with 43.0 innings pitched with a 3.35 ERA. In four or five years the big man may run into troubles, but he is smart enough to pitch effectively the rest of his career, but it is for sure that he will not be in contention for a Cy Young Award in future seasons.

David Price is the second of three south paws in this post. Price will be 28 in August of this year and that means he will be entering his prime. Price can get you out in a number of ways. He can blow a 95 mph fastball by you or make you look silly on a change up. Being drafted by and brought up by the Rays, Prince knows how to pitch the right way. He can give you 200+ innings and a sub 3.00 ERA on top of that. Price win the Cy Young Award in 2012, and it shouldn't be the last of his success, but that success may not come with the Rays. Price will soon be a free agent and he is with an organization that has trouble holding onto great talent. Price will be paid a large sum of money and if it happens to be a team on the West Coast, you can expect a few great seasons from the talented lefty.

Clayton Kershaw is the third and final south paw in this post. Kershaw turned 25 in March of this year and everyone is amazed by the success he has already has. We have no idea where the limit is on the ace of the Dodgers. Three consecutive seasons with 200+ IP, a sub 3.00 ERA, and 200+ strikeouts is phenomenal for a pitcher of any age. Statistically he draws a strong comparison to Sandy Koufax and I won't blow that one out of the water, because the Hall of Fame pitcher said he liked Kershaw's stuff. Clayton won the Cy Young Award at the age of 23 and he will definitely win many more in his career, but this season Kershaw and the Dodgers are looking to win the World Series. Judging buy the way the Dodgers are spending money and Kershaw's value to the team, by the time he is a free agent in 2015, Clayton Kershaw will become the highest paid player ever.

Okay here's a bonus south paw. Turing back the clock and going back to 1995, Andy Pettitte has found the fountain of youth. The lefty will be 41 years old in June, but you would never know. His fastball sits around 87-88 mph, but he shows a masterful slider and pinpoint control. In 12 starts in 2012 Pettitte pitched to a 2.87 ERA, and now in 2013 he has pitched to a 2.22 ERA eating some innings along the way. Pettitte never won a Cy Young Award, but I'm sure he's happy with his 5 World Series victories. Also during Pettite's younger days his lowest ERA was 2.88 so its very odd to say that Dandy Andy is performing better than ever.

The Warrior

Paul O'Neill is currently known as "The Warrior" but I'm giving that name to young phenom Bryce Harper. He plays the game hard and his warrior spirit never quits. As a nineteen year old rookie Harper had the courage to attempt to steal home off of All Star left handed pitcher Cole Hamels. The craziest part of that story is the fact that he was successful. There are plenty of guys who play the game hard, but when you combine that with once in a lifetime talent, you understand how 'phenom' comes from the word phenomenal.

I don't think it was a coincidence that the Nationals made their first playoff appearance ever the same year Harper joined the team. The now twenty year old outfielder brings his passion for the game to the park everyday. He plays the same way that Pete Rose did during his time; giving 110% and leading by example. Whether its running down a fly ball in the gap or beating out an infield single, Harper plays the game on a different level.

Harper is officially 23 games into his sophomore season and there is not a single sign of a slump. He has a beyond impressive .373 batting average and an even more impressive .453 on base percentage. That shows that about 8% of his plate appearances result in a walk. For a twenty year old hitting everything in the ballpark that is a great combination of incredible patience and plate vision. Also displaying tremendous power in the form of 9 home runs Harper is separating himself from the competition and as an elite player.

Reiterating the passion and the hustle Harper plays with can not only be seen in the game, but in his statistics. he has coming up in clutch situations by collecting 18 RBIs on the young season and legging out 5 doubles and 1 triple. You won't ever see Harper jogging into second, if there is even the slightest possibility he can get that extra base he will be running as hard as he can.

Being only twenty years old, Harper is displaying talent beyond his years. Harper's rookie season was better than Ken Griffey Jr., who was also nineteen when he debuted and Harper's sophomore season is on track to be better than Griffey Jr.'s as well. Now that he has established himself, now that he has learned the pitchers in the league, now that he is comfortable, and now that he knows he is here to stay there is no limit on Bryce Harper's success. Come the end of the season it wouldn't be obscured to call him the youngest MVP ever. The Warrior may be deemed with the title Most Valuable Player after leading his troops to a World Series victory.

Up Upton and Away

Justin Upton and the red hot Atlanta Braves are off to a rocketing start. Bryce Harper and the Nationals were my pick and the pick of many others to win the National League East in 2013, but it is the Braves' star left fielder leading the first place Braves.

Whatever you can do I can do better. 

With his older brother, BJ, to his left this 25 year old outfielder is doing much more than the Braves would have hoped for when they traded for him this off season. In 2012 with the Arizona Diamond Backs Justin Upton hit a respectable 17 home runs in 150 games played. In 2013 he has already crushed 11 homers in just 21 games. For Upton the sky is the limit, but he is heading for the sun, because they don't come much hotter than he is right now.

The power for Justin is very noticeable, but it isn't the only thing to be impressed about. About one-eighth into the season Justin Upton is playing considerably better defense after shifting to left field from right field to accommodate slugger Jason Heyward. Also Justin has stolen 3 bases in 3 attempts in 2013. You can pencil Justin Upton as an early favorite for National League MVP especially if the Braves win the division.

The older of the two Upton brothers is in a terrible slump to begin the season. BJ has blasted 3 dingers thus far, but his on base percentage is a horrific .229. The speed demon has played a fantastic center field for the Braves but has stole the equivalent amount of bases, three and has been caught once. BJ signed with the Braves as a free agent and will be with the club for the next 5 years. Being only 28 years old his value is still high and he is expected to do better, but you can bet he is the less talented of the Upton brothers.

In one game against the Chicago Cubs BJ Upton hit a home run to tie the game and then a few batters later Justin Upton hit another home run to win the game. In Colorado the two brothers hit back to back jacks, it really is a competition between the two of them. You can expect stories about the Upton brothers like that for the next few years.

Think Differently

Baseball is a thinking mans game, but sometimes the thought process doesn't exactly make sense. The traditional way to evaluate players with your eyes is dying out and evaluating players with mathematics is on the rise. I think of the game on its most basic level. The point of baseball is to score more runs than the other team. I always put emphasis on pitching, because you cannot win if you cannot score.

The other day I heard one of the most ridiculous things baseball related in a while regarding Diamond Backs starting pitcher Wade Miley. I don't know where the YES Broadcaster was reading it from, but an article said that for Wade Miley 2012 is as good as it gets. The article emphasis Miley's 17% strikeout rate. The part that got me upset was the fact that the article said Miley's 17% strikeout rate barely cuts it for a starter. I'll explain why this makes no sense. Whether this is true or I'm just hearing things, I'll explain my thinking.

The first point I will make is an obvious one yet no one seems to understand it. We as fans have fallen in love with the strikeout, but for starting pitchers it isn't a necessity and almost always irrelevent. It takes a minimum of three pitches to strikeout a hitter. It takes a minimum of one pitch to get a hitter out in any other way. Remember the point of a starter is to pitch deep into the game and to do it well. The fewer pitches used, the further a pitcher can go before he is fatigued.

The second point I will make is the quantity of outs. A strikeout can only get you one out at a time, while a contact out (i.e. a ground ball) can get you multiple outs, two or possibly even three... on one pitch. Do I need to explain that any further. It's common sense. two or three outs is better than one out.

The third point I will make is regarding hits. I do not care how many hits you give up. Going back to the basic principle of the game, to score more runs than the other team. If the players who get the hits don't score, does it matter? Think about it as long as the pitcher isn't using a lot of pitches and laboring through the game as long as the runs don't score, it doesn't matter how many guys get hits or get on base for that matter. You can give up three singles and then get a pop up, and a ground ball and not allow any runs to score and only use five pitches in the inning. Makes enough sense.

 "Barely cuts it as a starter." These words ticked me off. It is only logical for a reliever to specialize in strikeouts! A bases loaded jam in the 8th inning with zero outs. What do you want? A strikeout. Would you bring in Miley with a 17% strikeout rate or Kimbrel with a 50%+ strikeout rate? In this case contact is bad. Any type of contact is a very high risk of scoring a run. A sac fly, ground ball to a middle infielder, a hit, etc scores a run. So why would Miley barely cut it as a starter if he can't get strikeouts?

Just think of the game on a basic level. We love strikeouts, they are entertaining, but they are not necessary for starters. Pitching to contact is a more efficient and sometimes more effective way of getting outs and going further in the game. I'll make a post about thinking on the basic level for hitters soon enough.