Lead Off Value

At the top of your lineup you want a speed demon, a guy who get on base, a guy who can turn a single into a double, and a pesky hitter who can work the pitcher's pitch count at the beginning of the game.

There is a statistic that compares a player to the players in their era. This stat is OPS+. OPS+ is a value of a player compared to the league average that year. If one year the OPS (On base percentage plus slugging percentage) was .800 A player with an OPS greater than that would have a value greater than 100. The difference between the player's OPS+ and 100 is a percent of players that they are better than. OPS+ seems to favor power hitters, but you don't want a 30 home run guy hitting lead off that can't score on a double.  My stat, Lead Off Value (LOV) determines which player would be most valuable in the lead off spot.

LOV = Lead off Value
OBP = On base percentage
P/ PA = Pitches per plate appearance
SB = Stolen bases
CS = Caught stealing
T= Time to run 90 feet

LOV = (OBP x (P/PA)(SB^2/CS)
                               T

To explain this is a bit complicated. You want a player to get on base a lot, hence why OBP would work at their advantage. You would also want them to work the pitcher, so the other players can get a good look at the pitcher, hence why P/PA would also work at a players advantage. Stolen bases will work at your advantage, but being caught stealing will work at your disadvantage. The reason why the stolen bases is to the second power is to make a point. You could have 3 steals and 1 caught stealing, and you could have 30 steals and 10 caught stealing, and the ratio would be the same. The higher the number of steals a player has will be stressed. Finally the time a player takes to go 90 feet. If that number 2 hitter comes up and hits a ball in the gap, you want your lead off guy to score, having a low time will work at your advantage, because that player will get home the fastest. The higher the LOV, the more valuable of a lead off hitter the player is. If the player has not been caught stealing, set the value to 1.

The time to run 90 feet is not a big statistic, but is valuable for this stat and in baseball. You would have to go to the park and time that player running from home to first. One of the fastest, if not the fastest guy in the MLB is Brett Gardner of the New York Yankees. In 2011 he had a .345 OBP, 4.19 P/PA, 49 SB, 13 CS, and takes an approximate of 3.5 seconds to run 90 feet. This will give him a  76.28 LOV, a really good one to say.

They Yankees should use Gardner as a lead off hitter.

PS: Let me just say Vladimir Guerrero would make a terrible lead off hitter.