A New Way To Look At Stolen Bases

Stealing a base at the Major League level is one of the hardest things to do in all of sports. In fact here is a video by Sports Science on how it breaks down: Base Stealing .  Stealing bases definitely has its pros because you get the extra base, but some people do not look at it in the right way. Think of a steal of second as turning a single into a double, and a steal of third as turning a double into a triple.

So players who steal a lot of bases often do not have such a high OPS+ mainly because of slugging percentages. Players who steal bases are historically known to be singles hitters. For example Juan Pierre is a career 84 OPS+ hitter, but has an average close to 50 steals a season. In 2012 Ben Revere stole 40 bases but had only an 89 OPS+.

Slugging percentage is calculated as total bases / total at bats. For total bases a single is worth one base, a double is worth two bases, a triple is worth three bases, and a home run is worth four bases. So if a stolen base practically turns a single into a double and a double into a triple then the stolen base should be accounted for in slugging percentage.

Before I elaborate, slugging percentage is often used to determine how well a player will drive in base runners. A player with a high slugging percentage will often hit doubles, triples, and home runs, hence driving in more runners. Additionally they will also get in scoring position better, because they do so from the get go. Slugging percentage has two practicalities.

So incorporating the stolen base into slugging percentage is very easy. Since a stolen base would be taking an additional base without an at bat, the number of at bats stay the same. The number of singles, doubles, triples, and home runs also stay the same. A stolen base would be worth one base and just added to the summation of bases.

One player I want to look at in particular is Jacoby Ellsbury. The Yankees got a lot of heat for signing Ellsbury instead of Robinson Cano. Ellsbury had 124 singles, 31 doubles, 8 triples, 9 home runs, and 52 stolen bases in 2013. He also had 577 at bats giving him a traditional slugging percentage of .426. Because he was caught stealing 4 times and theoretically speaking took away a base, his net stolen bases is what will be used to calculated his slugging percentage with his stolen bases. So Ellsbury's slugging percentage including stolen bases would be .515 ass opposed to .426, 89 points higher.

Robinson Cano's slugging percentage in 2013 was .516 and if you include his 6 net steals, .525. Robinson Cano was and still is a much better baseball player than Jacoby Ellsbury. Cano had a .383 on base percentage as opposed to Ellsbury's .355 on base percentage.  When accounting for stolen bases Cano's OPS was .908 in 2013 and Ellsbury's was .870. Ellsbury was just 38 points behind Cano, statistically speaking that is not very much.

To understand how important the stolen base is to Ellsbury in this particular case Prince Fielder had 32, 38, and 30 home runs and .471, .566, and .528 slugging percentages from 2010-2012 respectively. He did have an on base percentage over .400 each one of those years, but his average .521 slugging percentage is almost exactly Ellsbury's .505 career slugging percentage.Stolen bases are just as important as home runs.

To have some fun with this in 2012 Mike Trout stole 49 bases raising his slugging percentage from .564 to .642.  Miguel Cabrera had a .606 slugging percentage with just 3 net steals. Mike Trout's on base percentage was .399 and Miguel Cabrera's was .393. Giving Mike Trout a 1.041 OPS and Miguel Cabrera a .999 OPS+. They are practically identical, but Trout was stellar on defense and used his speed in additional ways, but Miguel Cabrera won the triple crown in 2012 and won the MVP on the historical basis.

FUN WITH NUMBERS!

Masahiro Tanaka's First Start

Possibly the biggest story of the off season and spring training was Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka. After a dominating spring training and a long journey from his home country, Tanaka made his first start for the New York Yankees.

The $155 Million man. 

Tanaka's first start was against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night, and he was welcomed by the first batter he faced, Melky Cabrera, who hit a home run. After that home run he did get Colby Rasmus to gound out and proceeded to strike out Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Tanaka made Bautista and Encarnacion look silly in these two at bats. Encarnacion would later get two hits off of Tanaka, but Bautista would be held hitless.

Although he never reached 100 pitches Tanaka was pulled after 7 innings allowing just 2 earned runs on 6 hits. He faced one of the best lineups in the American League on Friday and he proved to many what he could do. Tanaka did not get rattled after the home run, he kept his composure and proceeded to pitch a great game. His next start will be against another great lineup, the Baltimore Orioles, at Yankee Stadium.

Big Seasons in 2014

Some players flat out had a terrible 2013 season, others made progress towards becoming better players, and some took a decline. Here are some names that I predict will have great 2014 seasons.

I have no idea why Belt is petting a baby Giraffe 

Brandon Belt

Brandon Belt is entering his age 26 season and has shown that he has patience at the plate. In 2012 and 2013 he had a .360 on base percentage, with his batting average rising from .275 to .289. Belt finally has a secure spot in the Giants lineup and is a much needed part of their offense. Belt showed much more power in 2013 hitting 17 home runs instead of 7 the year previous and 39 doubles instead of 27 the previous year. You can expect Belt to get on base, hit more home runs, and drive in plenty of runs, making 2014 his best year yet.

Justin Masterson

Justin Masterson is going to be a free agent at the end of 2014 season, and historically players preform pretty well in the final year of their contract. Masterson had the second best season of his career in 2013 posting a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings pitched, striking out 195. His best season was 2011 where he had a 3.21 ERA in 216 innings pitched with 158 strikeouts. In 2012 Masterson took a step back and posted a 4.93 ERA, but 2014 will be different. In 2013 we saw a significant decline in hits allowed, previous to 2013 Masterson allowed an average of 207 hits a season, in 2013 he allowed just 156. Previous to 2013 Masterson struck out just an average of 152 per season, and in 2013 he struck out 195. Masterson is a ground ball pitcher striking guys out, he is heading a very good direction and a very big pay day.

Josh Hamilton

Josh Hamilton signed a mega deal with the Los Angeles Angels and did not perform as expected in the first year of the contract. Hamilton had his worst season since 2009 posting a 108 OPS+ although he did play 151 games, hit 21 home runs, and drove in 29 RBIs. We all know the ball does not carry as well in Los Angeles as it does in Texas, but Hamilton has serious power. I think the first year in LA was just Hamilton adjusting. He came into spring training of 2013 lighter, because in Texas he would lose weight quickly throughout the season. Now that he understands what will occur throughout the season in Los Angeles and the fact that it is also very hot in LA, Hamilton will have a great 2014 season.

Coincidentally Lincecum started to do better since he
cut his hair in 2013. 

Tim Lincecum

It seems like I say this every year, but Lincecum has not performed worse than the season before. In 2012 Lincecum had the worst season of his career posting a 5.18 ERA. In 2013 Lincecum dropped his ERA to 4.37. This is similar to the 2010-2011 season drop in ERA Lincecum experienced. In 2010 Lincecum's ERA was at a career high 3.43, in 2011 his ERA dropped 69 points to 2.74. Lincecum started throwing much earlier this off season in a warehouse in Seattle, so he is ready for the season. He said he is just concentrating on getting outs, not strikeouts. You will see a drop in ERA once again. We will probably never see the Lincecum of old again, but you will see a highly effective pitcher. I'm predicting a 75 point drop in ERA and a 3.62 ERA for Lincecum in 2014.