Late Comers

The MLB has its share of players joining the season late this year. Veterans are joining their respected teams to help provide a boost of talent and spark a winning streak. Players to join their teams so far are Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte. Players expected to join teams soon are Manny Ramirez and Roy Oswalt.

Johnny Damon joined the Cleveland Indians for $1.25 Million over 1 year. So far Damon has played 22 games and has been relatively unproductive. He has a .152/.239/.288 slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG). He has been without an error in his 20 games in the outfield, but the Indians don't want to pay just for defense. 

Hideki Matsui joined the Tampa Bay Rays and has played in 1 game in 2012. In Matsui's 4 at bats he had one hit, but that hit was a towering solo home run. Matsui kept the item of his game that makes him most valuable. Additionally Masui played left field in that one game, he played 45 games in the  outfield the past 2 seasons. The Rays have to make up for the loss of Longoria in every way they can.

Andy Pettitte has been extremely effective for the New York Yankees. After 4 starts Pettitte holds a 3.49 ERA, but that is not a clear indication of the way he has pitched. Pettitte had 2 stellar starts and 2 sub par starts. He has gone 6 or more innings in each of his 4 starts reaching the 7th inning in 3 of them. The Yankees have the Workhorse they really needed. 

The Athletics played their 50th game last night so that means Manny Ramirez can resume activities in Major League Baseball. He may need a few games in the minor leagues to get back into the groove of things, but he will help their offense. In 2010 and 2011 Manny played in 95 games and hit just 9 home runs and 43 RBI's not the offense teams were expecting. With Reddick, Cespedes, and Manny the Oakland A's may be able to play spoiler with the Angels and Rangers. 

Roy Oswalt signed with the Texas Rangers yesterday. The Rangers improved the weakest point of their team with this addition. Matt Harrison will probably be sent the bullpen when Oswalt does return. In 2010 Oswalt pitched 211 innings with a 2.76 ERA. In 2011 Oswalt's season was shortened due to injury, but he still managed to pitch 139 innings with a 3.69 ERA. A rotation including Darvish, Lewis, Holland and Feliz now has a veteran of Oswalt. Watch out for the Texas Rangers they serious. 

Big Surprises

Baseball always has a lot of surprises, that is why you can't predict it. Two of the most shocking players to have a great start to the 2012 season are Josh Reddick and Chris Capuano.

Josh Reddick was acquired by the Oakland Athletics from the Boston Red Sox in a trade for closer Andrew Baily. Baily has been injured so the Athletics won that trade. For a struggling offense Reddick has been phenomenal. He has a .906 OPS and that is translated to a 147 OPS+. 27 RBI's, 14 home runs, 8 doubles and 2 triples Rseddick is contending for an all star appearance. Reddick was nothing more than a 4th outfielder for the Red Sox a year ago and now hes found himself as a star in Oakland.

On the big surprises for pitching we move to southern California. Chris Capuano has been a major part of the Dodgers' success in the 2012 season. Pitching for the Diamond Backs, the Brewers, and the Mets previously before coming to the Dodgers Capuano has never recorded an ERA lower than 3.95. In 2012 Capuano has a 2.14 ERA and 7 wins. The 33 year old left hander has 58 strikeouts in 63 innings pitched with a 173 ERA+.

The season still goes on and baseball is full of surprises, but Capuano and Reddick have been by far the biggest surprises.

Pujols and Haren

Last night in Seattle the Angels' recent additions came into effect. Dan Haren came to the Angels via trade in 2010 and of course Albert Pujols signed as a free agent in the 2011-2012 off season.

Haren posted a 3.17 ERA in 238.1 innings pitched in 2011 and in 2012 he started off rocky. After last nights game he lowered his ERA to 3.76 after a complete game shutout.

Pujols has been arguably the best player in the major leagues over the past 10 years, but he has not panned out in the first year of his mega-contract with the Angels. Things seems to finally be turning around for Pujols. In last night's game Pujols went 3-4 with a 2 run home run. In his last 10 game Pujols has 4 home runs, 13 hits and  10 RBI's. He is hitting .325 over that span and .225  on the year.

The main story of the game was Haren. Haren struck out 14 Mariners and gave up only 4 hits and 0 walks. Pujols' home runs was his 450th of his career and Haren recorded his 1500th strikeout.

The Price is Wainwright

After spending the entire 2011 season on the disabled list Adam Wainwright seems to be back in his all star form. In 2009 and 2010 Wainwright sported back to back seasons with a sub 3 ERA to show he is an elite starter in the MLB. In the spring training of 2011 Wainwright had to have Tommy John surgery which seems to be a regular injury among pitchers.

Last night Wainwright pitched against the San Diego Padres which ended up being his best start of the season. A complete game shutout victory with 9 strikeouts. Wainwright only allowed 1 walk and 4 hits, he was absolutely dominant. His velocity is back, but it was more about the movement on Tuesday night. His slider had enormous break and averaged about 90 MPH.

Wainwrights success will be important with the loss of Berkman for 6-8 weeks due to a torn meniscus. Additionally Chris Carpenter's injuries. Wainwright has to be the Wainwright of old and be the ace of the Cardinals.

Signing of the Off season

So its about 45 games into the season and the season is about 25% over. There have been a few plays who performed very well so far into the season, but they are all getting paid a lot. Which player is getting underpaid for their performance? A team wants to pay players the minimum amount of money for the maximum efficacy .

The player that is doing the most for the least amount of money in 2012 is Raul Ibanez. Ibanez is 39 years old is going to be 40 later in the year. He is an established veteran and that shows when he comes through in the clutch. Ibanez gets paid 1.1 million dollars for the 2012 season and has great stats for such a little amount of money (compared to other salaries.) In 33 games and 118 plate appearances Ibanez has a .336 on base percentage and a .473 slugging percentage. He has 9 home runs for the season. It may not seem outstanding, but a while ago someone told me "Its not how hard you hit it; its where you hit it." I think for Ibanez its when you hit it. Ibanez seems to always get home runs and rbis when the Yankees are down by a few runs or to add insurance runs.

If you divide it out the Yankees are paying Ibanez $6790 a game and 42 games into the season he earned $285185. That means the Yankees are paying $9199 for a run produced by Raul Ibanez.

Why Does Everything Happen On Friday?

The first thing to write about is Justin Verlander's dance with a no hitter. The Tigers supplied Verlander with a 6 run lead entering the top of the ninth. Verlander had just over 100 pitches and 12 strikeouts with 1 out into the 9th. Then a fate that happened to so many pitchers before a seeing eye single up the middle. Verlander finished the game with a complete game shutout 1 hit and 2 walks. It would have been his 3rd no hitter.

The second thing that happened on Friday was just dandy. Dandy Andy, Andy Pettitte looked like he was still in the early 2000s with his stellar performance on Friday. Pettitte pitched 8 shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds. He struck out 9 and allowed only 4 hits and 1 walk. Pettitte's fastball was around 87-89 MPH, but it was his curveball and his cutter that looked just masterful. The Reds' hitters just couldn't hit it. The Yankees won 4-0

The Blue Jays beat up on the Mets on Friday night in a 14-5 victory in Toronto. JP Arencibia went 3-5 with 2 home runs, 6 RBI's and 3 runs scored. The Jays had their way with the Mets not only on offense but on pitching.  Ricky Romero pitched 6 innings allowing only 3 hits and 4 walks. He struck out 6.

Kerry Wood was a phenom in the late 90s and early 2000s, but in 2012 he retires from baseball. In his final game with the Cubs Kerry Wood did what he did best, struck out his batter. A 3 pitch strikeout to ride off into the sunset with must be nice. You have to wonder what would the Cubs be like if Mark Prior and Kerry Wood would have stayed healthy, but anyway Wood takes his 4 200+ strikeout seasons home.

Another thing that has been occurring in the past few weeks was a heat up from Albert Pujols. Pujols has a few home runs now, but still isn't his MVP self. He is scoring runs and collecting RBI's and the Angels are winning ballgames. It looks like Pujols may be arriving soon.

The Shift

The shift is a term dreaded by power hitters all around baseball. It was made popular in recent years and used almost instinctively by some managers. The shift was first used against the great Hall of Fame player Ted Williams, but he was so good he hit through it.

The Royals shift for Teixeia 

One of the players in 2012 most heavily effected by the shift is Mark Teixeira. For Mark Teixeira the short stop plays right over the second base bag and the second baseman plays on the outfield grass while the first baseman hugs the line. The only way for Teixiera to be insured a hit is to hit the ball in the spot where they aren't standing or over their head for a home run. Teixeria chooses to hit the home run most of the time, but he could have a much higher batting average if he just chooses to hit the ball to the left side.

The shift is one of the most frustrating things to a hitter and a fan, but it almost always works. It seems like whenever Mark Teixeria makes contact its hit right at a fielder. Its a rally killer. The shift is being used more and more by managers and teams may start training players in the minor leagues to sacrifice power (pulling the ball) for base hits, hence using the whole field. To go back to Teixeira, out of 98 at bats he hit the ball to the right side 47 times and only 15 times was it a hit. He has a total of just 33 hits on the season; 23 as a left handed hitter. 2009 was arguably his best best season with the Yankees and teams did not shift as drastically. That year as a left handed hitter he hit .282. In 2011 as a left handed hitter Teixeira hit only .224. In 2011 Teixeia hit 24 home runs as left handed hitter and 15 as a right handed hitter, so he is still productive.

Teixeira said he would bunt in 2012 if teams continued to do the shift, but he has yet to do it. You have to think, how many hits are you willing to sacrifice for a home run?

What's the Average?

So recently I've been expanding my statistic Pitching Performance Value. So whats the average value of a start. The average amount of innings pitched from a starter is 6.0 so that means they recorded 18 outs. Also the average ERA in the major leagues is 3.94. That means over 9 innings a pitcher would give up 3.94 earned runs. That turns out to be 2.63 earned runs over 6 innings. Additionally the average whip for a pitcher is 1.32, so tha means over 6 innings pitched 7.92 base runners will reach base. Finally the average OPS of a hitter is .720. So do a quick calculation the average Pitching Performance Value is 62.22. Anything above 62.22 PPV from a pitcher's start would be above average. If a pitcher consistently gets PPV's above 62.22 he is considerably better than the average pitcher.

Coming soon: A way to adjust PPV for the ballpark the pitcher is in.

Old Timer in the Bronx

The 39 year old soon to be 40 year old Andy Pettitte pitched his first game since 2010 yesterday. He received the loss in the game against the Mariners. He went 6 1/3 innings and gave up 4 runs. Lets look at his Pitching Performance Value.

Pettitte got 19 outs and the average OPS that he got out was .648. To put that along side 7 hits, 3 walks and 4 runs Pettitte's PPV is 30.78. That is relativity low, but for a first start back in the major leagues it isn't too bad. As Pettitte gets more work and the nervous feelings go away Pettitte can be a legitimate force later  in the season. 

Uno, Dos, Tres, Cuatro

As the Rangers propel through the win column with plenty of support from Josh Hamilton, Hamilton made himself noticed by fans all over baseball last night. In Camden Yards in Baltimore Josh Hamilton hit 4 home runs off of Orioles pitching. Hamilton is the first play to hit 4 home runs in a game since Carlos Delgado in 2003. Watch Hamilton's home runs here.

Not only did Hamilton hit 4 home runs he also hit a double and collected 8 RBI's and went 5-5 in a 10-3 win over the Orioles last night. This is the last year of Hamilton's contract and if he continues to be the dominant hitter he is, an extension or a contract as free agent will be an immense amount of money for the 30 year old outfielder.

The Closer

The closer is now an essential part of a baseball team. A flamethrower who comes out the pen. A guy who can strikeout everyone he faces. A personality that intimidates the hitter. Most importantly a pitcher who can save the game.

In 2012 many pitchers who assumed the role of closer, but have sustained an injury. Santiago Cassilla is taking over for Brian Wilson, David Robertson is taking over for Mariano Rivera, Sean Marshal is taking over for Ryan Madson, and who ever the Red Sox have is taking over for Andrew Bailey.

Also this year some closers have not performed well and were stripped of their duty. Heath Bell has not performed for the Miami Marlins and has lost his role.

My favorite part of the closer is the entrance. Jogging in from the bullpen and then warming up to a hardcore song that describes the pitcher. "Enter Sandman" by Metallica for Mariano Rivera and when Jonathon Papelbon was on the Red Sox "Shipping Out to Boston" by Dropkick Murphys. One song that isn't being used by a closer is "Sound of Madness" by Shinedown. I think it would be the perfect fit for a flame throwing pitcher. A possible fit for such a song would be Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta braves.

Some older baseball fans don't approve of the closer, but I love it. It creates a high intensity moment at the end of the game. It gets the fans on their feet and makes everything exciting. Some analysts say they would rather use their best relief pitcher in a tougher situation in say the 7th inning. Although many don't realize it, the closer is not the best pitcher in the bullpen. Tyler Clippard is not the closer for the Nationals, Mike Adams is not the closer for the Rangers, David Robertson was not the closer for the Yankees in 2011 , and Aroldis Chapman is not the closer for the Reds.

The closer is one of my favorite aspects of the game of baseball and it is here to stay. The productivity of the closer is determined on how well the manager uses the bullpen.

Bryce Harper and Albert Pujols

Bryce Harper is the most hyped prospect possibly of all time. He is just 19 years old. We all expected him to be good, but not this good. Harper has played in 8 games at the Major League level and has already reached super star status in the Washington DC area. In 28 at bats Harper has 8 hits and 3 RBI's. Harper has also drawn 5 walks and scored 3 runs. 5 doubles also are marked on Harper's baseball card, but probably the most significant event in his young career was an eventful steal of home. The link to the video is the following: HARPER'S STEAL.

Lets go from a 19 year old rookie outfielder to a 32 year old veteran first baseman. Albert Pujols hit his first home run of the season yesterday. After 112 at bats Pujols has 7 RBI's and just 22 hits. Accompany that with 10 runs scored and .196/.237/.295 slash line. Alex Rodriguez a hitter notorious for hitting home runs commented on the situation stating that once Pujols hits one home run he will then hit 5 or 6 more soon after. Home runs come in clusters. The home run is the following link: PUJOLS' HOMER

Vote in the poll on the side of this post. Who will hit more home runs this year: Harper or Pujols.

Start of the Week

Its not often that you see two no hitters in back to back weeks, but in 2012 we did. Jered Weaver pitched a no hitter against the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night. Weaver struck out 9 and walked only 1 he gets the start of the week.

NO NO NO

A no hitter for Jared Weaver. 9 innings in the books and not a single hit was recorded for a Twins hitter. Weaver struck out 9 batters and only walked one. I had weaver penciled in for the Cy Young Award before the season began and this is a great sign that that may occur. Congratulations to Jared Weaver.

Pitching Performance Value

As you know by now I like to assign one number to an entire performance. For a pitcher we usually look at how many runs he allowed and how many innings he pitched. Now there will be one value to evaluate a pitcher's performance on a given day and compare it to other pitching performances.

How would you classify a great start? I would say many innings pitched and as few walks, hits, and runs as possible. This isn't always a clear indication of how a pitcher did. If a pitcher throws 5 shutout innings against the Texas Rangers, it is a much bigger accomplishment than 5 shutout innings against the Houston Astros. How do you measure how good an offense is you ask? You gather all the players the pitcher got out and average their OPS on that day. The higher the OPS of a hitter the more dangerous he is and getting him out holds much more significance than a guy who has a low OPS.

PPV =            (Recorded Outs)           
            ((Hits + Walks) x Earned Runs)     X (average of opponents OPS whom recorded an out)

Then Multiply the value times 100 to get a more accurate value.
                 

Now there is one rule to this statistic. That is if the pitcher allowed 0 eared runs set the value for "(Earned Runs)" as 1. This is because if you cannot divide by 0. You may also be asking Where are the strikeouts. To be honest I love strikeouts, but it doesn't matter how you record the out. Also if anything a contact out would be better, because it usually uses fewer pitches.

So now lets put this to the test. Since Tim Lincecum is one of my favorite pitcher we will use him as the test subject. On April 28 Lincecum pitched  against the Padres. He allowed 3 hits, 0 runs and 4 walks.
He recorded 24 outs. They are the following hitters followed by how many outs the recorded and their OPS:

Will Venable: 2 outs .638 OPS
Jesus Guzman: 2 outs .515 OPS
Chase Headley: 2 outs .843 OPS
Nick Hundley: 2 outs .628 OPS
Yonder Alonso: 2outs .667 OPS
Orlando Hudson: 3 outs .615 OPS
Camron Maybin: 3 outs.630 OPS
Andy Parrino: 3 outs   .629 OPS
Anthony Bass: 3 outs .000 OPS

As you can see the lineup isn't very threatening.  The average OPS Lincecum got out was .509 which is relatively easy to do. With the Average OPS that recorded an out was .509 Lincecum's PPV for April 28 was 174.5. That is pretty good, but lets say the average OPS of the people who recorded an out was .700. His PPV would be 240 a significantly better value. Remember that if the pitcher gives up 0 hits or walks or 0 runs the value for the bottom of the equation is set at 1.

This stat can also be used to evaluate relief pitchers, but you should categorize them differently, because the ratio of batters faced to hits and walks given up is the same, but should not be weighted as the same.          

MVP Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Race

So I've decided to drop the MVP of the weekend segment, I thought it was kind of useless. Because today is April 30 I will write about the leaders in the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year award race in both leagues. There is a lot of great hitters and pitchers out there so this list could change by September.

AL MVP's:

 Josh Hamilton: Hamilton has the American League in the palm of his hands. Batting .395 with an on base percentage of .438 Hamilton is the best hitter in The Rangers' lineup. Hitting 9 home runs, driving in 25 RBI's and scoring 20 runs Hamilton leads the league in the MVP race. His run production probability is 38.7%

 Curtis Granderson: Granderson has been hot in April hitting 8 home runs and driving in 16 RBI's. He has a batting average of .272 and an on base percentage of .385. Granderson doesn't have a high batting average but he produces runs. It seems like he is just picking up on where he left off last year with a 27.0% run production probability. 

 Derek Jeter: Jeter is defying father time batting .396 with a .440 on base percentage at the age of 37. Jeter has 13 RBI's, 16 runs scored and 4 home runs. That earns him a 25.5% Run production probability. 

NL MVP:

Matt Kemp: Kemp is the only guy that you need to know about in the National League. Kemp should have won the MVP last year, but The Dodgers didn't make the playoffs. Kemp is carrying them this year resulting in the Dodgers early success. Kemp has 23 runs scored, 24 RBI's, and 11 home runs in just 22 games. Kemp has 2 stolen bases and his run production probability is through the roof with a 39.1% RPP. He is also hitting .425 and has an on base percentage of .495. Just amazing. 

AL Cy Young: 

Jake Peavy: With 37.2 innings pitched Peavy has an ERA of 1.67 and a 0.69 ERA. Holding hitters to a batting average of .162 Peavy has been getting by quietly. The former Cy Young award winner may be a potential trade candidate later in the year. 

Jared Weaver: Weaver has also been impressing a lot of people. He's holding a 2.02 ERA over 35.2 innings pitched with 36 strikeouts over that span. With a whip of 0.95 and an opponent batting average of .217. Weaver could continue his dominance down the line. 

NL Cy Young:

Joe Saunders: Saunders has been a pleasant surprise. He has 30 innings pitched and a 0.90 ERA. He isnt allowing runners to get on base as well with a .87 whip and 18 strikeouts. Joe Saunders is probably on a hot streak, but his success my dwindle down as the season goes on. 

Stephan Strasburg: In 2010 and 2011 we got a little taste of Strasburg, but finally we are seeing him dominate start after start. With 32 innings under his belt Strasburg has a 1.13 ERA and 34 strikeouts. His whip is only 0.88 so it is obvious that Strasburg has been dominant in the National League. 

AL Rookie of the Year

Yu Darvish: Although Yu Darvish has pitched many years in Japan he is a rookie in the MLB. He is dominating the major league level with a 2.18 ERA over 33 innings and 33 strikeouts. Although his whip is 1.424 he is not allowing the runs to score and that is a big asset.

Yoenis Cespedes: Cespedes is also a firs time major league ball player, but has played seasons in other countries. Cespedes has a slugging percentage of .476 and an on base percentage of .333. He is driving in runs on a offense lacking Oakland A's team. He is a major reason for the little bits of success the Athletics are having. 

NL Rookie of the Year

Lance Lynn: Lynn is making up for the Cardinals' loss of Chris Carpenter. he is holding a 1.33 ERA over 27 innings pitch. over that span he also has 16 strikeouts and a whip of only 0.81

Bryce Harper: Harper has only played 2 games, but you could already tell he is a fan favorite. He is on a winning ball club and has overwhelming talent. But you cant get anywhere with just talent, Harper will need to project that talent into star caliber statistics.