Monday, February 18, 2013

The BRAVE and ROYAL family

The Braves made it to the playoffs, but were eliminated in a heartbreaking wildcard game. We will always remember the first wild card game as "The Infield Fly Game" and not Chipper's final game. The Royals on the other hand finished in third place and wanted to improve on that in 2013.

Chipper Jones leaves Turner Field to the Uptons
With Chipper Jones' departure the Braves made some very nice upgrades and changes. In the lineup they lost the speed demon of Michael Bourn but added the young and talented BJ Upton to man center field. They also traded away prospect Randal Delgado and utility man Martin Prado to get Chris Johnson and the other Upton, Justin. Here is what the revenge seeking Braves lineup will look like in 2013:

1. R. B. Upton CF   109 OPS+
2. R. Simmons SS     101 OPS+
3. L. Heyward RF    117 OPS+
4. R. J. Upton LF     107 OPS+
5. L. Freeman 1B     113 OPS+
6. R. Uggla 2B          98 OPS+
7. L. McCann C        87 OPS+
8. R. Johnson 3B      115 OPS+

The pitching rotation for the Braves is a bit weaker without Tommy Hanson, but it is still anchored by Tim Hudson and he has some nice support behind him. Kris Medlen came on the scene in 2012 and blew everyone away. The 5th spot may be a battle between Teheran and Minor, but for now I will just slot one of them in.

1. R. Tim Hudson 3.62 ERA
2. R. Kris Medlen 1.57 ERA
3. R. Brandon Beachy *2.00 ERA *81 IP
4. L. Paul Maholm 3.67 ERA
5. L. Mike Minor 4.12 ERA

The Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball. With the flame throwing right handed closer, Craig Kimbrel coming in the 9th inning. They also acquired young hard throwing rich hander Jordan Walden. Also in the bullpen are lefties Johnny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty and right hander Christian Martinez who should repeat good years.

I project 92 wins for the Braves in 2013

Billy Butler, The king of the Royal monarchy tips his crown to
the fans
The Royals are planning on contesting the Tigers for the American League Central in 2013. They made some bug improvements to their team and should not be taken lightly in the upcoming season.

The young Royal lineup will have all of its pieces healthy for 2013 and should produce fairly well. Here is how it may look:

1. R. Escobar SS     98 OPS+
2. R. Cain CF          100 OPS+
3. L. Gordon LF      125 OPS+
4. R. Butler DH        140 OPS+
5. L. Hosmer 1B      82 OPS+
6. R. Perez C           117 OPS+
7. L. Moustakas 3B  93 OPS+
8. R. Francoeur RF   81 OPS+
9. L. Getz 2B            85 OPS

The major over hall for the Royals was the starting rotation. They added the big name, Big Game James Sheilds. The also added Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie (mid season), and Wade Davis. This rotation is a great improvement for the Royals, here is how it should look:

1. R. James Shields 3.52 ERA
2. R. Jeremy Guthrie 4.76 ERA
3. R. Ervin Santana 5.16 ERA
4. R. Wade Davis *2.43 ERA *As reliever
5. L. Bruce Chen 5.07 ERA

The Royals have an excess of starters so you can assume the ones who don't make the rotation will either be put in the bullpen or the minor leagues. Speaking of the bullpen, closer Greg Holland had a pretty good year in 2012 and will like to repeat it in 2013. The other names in the bullpen are lefty Tim Collins, and righty Aaron Crow. An addition like Francisco Rodriguez or a gamble with Jose Valverde would be a good addition for the Royals.

I project 84 wins for the Royals in 2013.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

The Birds and the ... Nats?

The Orioles and the Nationals made it to the post season last season. Both clubs were underdogs entering 2012, but now in 2013 they are regarded as strong contenders for their respected divisions.

The Orioles showed that they can compete with the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays in the American League East. They will again have to prove that they are fit to compete in 2013.

The offense for the Orioles is stronger than most, but not the strongest. The big bat is the face of their franchise, Adam Jones. He along with Chris Davis, Matt Weiters, and J.J. Hardy provide the power that propels the team to victory We can't forget about 2013 Rookie of the Year favorite Manny Machado who came onto the scene in mid 2012, he will be key to the success of the Orioles. Here is how their lineup will look in 2013.

1. S. Roberts 2B *105 OPS+ *2010 stats
2. L. Markakis RF 126 OPS+
3. R. Jones CF 125 OPS+
4. L. Davis 1B 121 OPS+
5 S. Wieters C 107 OPS+
6. R. Hardy SS 88 OPS+
7. R. Machado 3B 98 OPS+
8. L. McLouth LF 90 OPS+
9. R. Riemold DH *111 OPS+ *2011 stats

The pitching rotation for the Orioles is unproven and for the most part young. The only guys who have a given spot in the rotation for 2013 are Wei Yu Chen and Jason Hammel. Tommy Hunter, Dylan Bundy, Zach Britton, and Jair Jurjjens all have to work to earn a spot onto the club.

The bullpen for the Orioles was probably their biggest strength in 2012. Jim Johnson held down the back end and closed the door all season for the O's. Ayala set up very well and maintained a low era as he did in seasons previous. It seems as if the Orioles will have the strategy as they did last year: Just get outs.

I project 89 wins for the Orioles in 2013.

The Nationals won the National League East and shocked everyone with their large spread of young talent. They added some big names and are on a quest to win it all 2013.

The Nationals have a beautiful assortment of young players and veterans in their lineup. For the younf player, phenom Bryce Harper will man left field while Espinosa and Desmond will play the middle infield. The Nationals traded Michael Morse, but they have decent production from every position. Lets look at the lineup.

1. L. Span CF            105 OPS+
2. R. Desmond SS     126 OPS+
3. L. Harper LF         119 OPS+
4. R. Zimmerman 3B  121 OPS+
5. L. LaRoche 1B      128 OPS+
6. R. Werth RF          125 OPS+
7. S. Espinosa 2B       94 OPS+
8. R. Ramos C           105 OPS+

Unlike the Orioles the pitching rotation for the Nationals is almost set in stone. There will be no innings limit on Stephen Strasburg and the newly acquired Dan Haren will be a great veteran presence. Here is how the rotation shapes up:

1. R. Stephen Strasburg  3.16 ERA
2. L. Gio Gonzalez          2.89 ERA
3. R. Jordan Zimmerman 2.94 ERA
4. R. Dan Haren              4.33 ERA
5. L. Ross Detwiler         3.40 ERA

The bullpen for the Nationals has a new look to it as well. Rafael Soriano will take over as closer after a fantastic season with the Yankees, Drew Storen will become a setup man, and Tyler Clippard will remain to dominate in the late innings. The Nationals have a great bullpen, but no great left handed reliever, they should consider trading for one if they want to fix their only hole.

I project 96 wins for the Nationals in 2013.


Tuesday, February 12, 2013

I Love Livin' in Los Angeles

The Angels and the Dodgers added some big pieces last season and this off season. The two power houses have a lot to prove in 2013, lets see what will be key.

The Angels have one of the best lineups in all of the land. Super star rookie of the year Mike Trout will man center field, three time MVP Albert Pujols will man first base, and 2010 MVP Josh Hamilton will man either right field or left field for the Halos. The rest of the lineup has some pop as well, this is how I would place them along with positions.

1. S. Aybar SS      109 OPS+
2. R. Trout CF       171 OPS+
3. L. Hamilton RF  131 OPS+
4. R. Pujols 1B      141 OPS+
5. R. Trumbo DH   126 OPS+
6. R. Kendrick 2B  106 OPS
7. S. Callaspo 3B   98 OPS+
8. R. Wells LF        91 OPS+
9. R. Iannerra C      107 OPS+

The lineup is very right handed heavy. I can see the Angels trading for a left handed designated hitter and moving Trumbo to third base or left field although he isn't so great defensively. A bat like Justin Morneau would put the Angels over the top.

The Angels lost Zack Greinke and Dan Haren this off season to free agency but they still retain one of the best starting pitchers in Jered Weaver. The Angels also traded for Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson.

R. Jered Weaver 2.81 ERA
L. CJ Wilson 3.83 ERA
R. Tommy Hanson 4.48 ERA
R. Jason Vargas 3.85 ERA
R. Joe Blanton 4.71 ERA

The rotation isn't the best but they can definitively outscore any team and with that pitching it is enough to win a sufficient amount of games. There is one starter still left in the free agent market, that is Kyle Lohse. He would be a great addition to their rotation and to sign him to a one year deal may be a difference maker in the AL West.

The Angels' bullpen also got some nice additions. Ryan Madson will pitch for the Angels either as a closer or a set up man after having Tommy John's surgery. The lefty Sean Burnett joined the Halos this off season as well, he and the other lefty, Scott Downs, will be critical in match ups in late innings. Kevin Jepsen made himself seen in 2012 by putting up good numbers, and the emergence of Ernesto Frieri was huge for the Angels. Frieri put up great numbers for the Angels in 2012.

I project 92 wins for the Angels in 2013 as the team stands now.

The Dodgers are spending money like no tomorrow. They made the huge trade with the Red Sox during the season, signed Greinke to a mega contract, and signed Korean pitching phenom Ryu to a contract as well. The Dodgers are stacked and expected to do well in 2013.

The Dodgers added the big bat of Adrian Gonzalez and speed demon Carl Crawford in 2012. They let Shane Victorino join the Red Sox, but are willing to take the risk with Crawford coming off injury. Their well balanced looks as follows:

1. L. Gordon SS     56 OPS+
2. L. Crawford LF 107 OPS+
3. R. Kemp CF      147 OPS+
4. L. Gonzalez 1B   116 OPS+
5. R. Ramirez 3B    106 OPS+
6. L. Ethier RF       123 OPS+
7. R. Ellis C            118 OPS+
8. L. Schumaker 2B 96 OPS+

The Dodgers have the best pitcher in baseball. I don't care what anyone says, Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez. The best pitcher in baseball is undoubtedly Clayton Kershaw. Josh Beckett joined the rotation in 2012. Ryu will be joining the rotation in 2013 as well, he will fun to watch.

L. Clayton Kershaw 2.53 ERA
R. Josh Beckett 4.65 ERA
R. Chad Billingsly 3.55 ERA
L. Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.66 ERA* in Korean league
L. Ted Lilly 3.14 ERA

The Dodgers have an excess of starting pitchers. They include Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang. Both had pretty good seasons in 2012 and could provide a good return whether it be prospects, relievers, or a more reliable short stop.

Kenley Jansen impress many people in 2012 taking on the closer's role for a majority of the season. Brandon League joined the Dodgers mid season and pitched well for them in 2012. Randy Choate departed to join the Cardinals, but JP Howell will replace him as a credited left handed reliever. Javy Guerra also performed very well in 2012. The Dodgers' bullpen inst one of the best, but it better than average. It is good enough to hold a game, but is the weakest part of their team.

I project 93 wins for the Dodgers in 2013

Monday, February 11, 2013

San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers

I will be evaluating teams in pairs or trios and I thought the first two should be the National League and American League champions respectively.

The San Francisco Giants put together their team of oddballs every year and they are usually underrated. A major factor of their winning formula is team chemistry. With the addition of Hunter Pence this past season that chemistry has sky rocketed. He was a major reason why they won the World Series.

Playing in one of the most beautiful and largest ballparks in baseball the Giants have one of the best pitching rotations in baseball. The key to their success has always been suppressing the other team. They can't win if they can't score.

Tim Lincecum had the most horrendous season of his career. With a 5.18 ERA in one of the largest ballparks his ERA+ was just 67. That is well below average. In the playoffs he was pushed into the bullpen and ended up being a difference maker. I expect that Lincecum and the Giants have worked this off season and will continue to work on fixing whatever the problem is. I expect Lincecum to have a bounce back season, but if he does not I expect the Giants to put him into the bullpen. The rest of the rotation looks as such:

R. Matt Cain: 2.79 ERA
L. Madison Bumgarner: 3.37 ERA
R. Ryan Vogelsong: 3.37 ERA
R. Tim Lincecum 5.18 ERA
L. Barry Zito: 4.15 ERA

The Giants' lineup was anchored by National League MVP, Buster Posey. Full of characters that the fans love the Giants' lineup is both productive and entertaining. I will be using OPS+ which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage fixed to compare the player to league average and the ballpark he plays in.

1. S. Angel Pagan 121 OPS+
2. R. Marco Scuttaro 99 OPS+
3. S. Pablo Sandoval 124 OPS+
4. R. Buster Posey 172 OPS+
5. R. Hunter Pence 103 OPS+
6. L. Brandon Belt 124 OPS+
7. L Gregor Blonco 95 OPS+
8. L. Brandon Crawford 85 OPS+

The bullpen for the Giants is held down by Sergio Romo, Santiago Cassilla, and Jeremy Afeldt. Brian Wilson may return to the Giants in 2013 if he is willing to take on a lesser salary.

I project 94 wins for the Giants in 2013

The Detroit Tigers became World Series favorites when they signed Prince Fielder last year, but now they are even stronger than before. They will get Victor Martinez back as their every day designated hitter, Torii Hunter as their right fielder, Omar Infante as their second baseman, and Anibal Sanchez as their number four starter.

The American League triple crown winner and MVP will man third base for the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera is a force to be reckoned with. Now he is in an even more protected lineup. The sky is the limit for the numbers he may put up. Here is how the Tigers lineup may look in 2013:

1. R. Austin Jackson 130 OPS+
2. R. Torii Hunter 132 OPS+
3. R. Miguel Cabrera 165 OPS+
4. L. Prince Fielder 152 OPS+
5. S. Victor Martinez  131 OPS+* 2011
6. R. Alex Avila 100 OPS+
7. R. Jhonny Peralta 85 OPS+
8. L. Brennan Boesch 77 OPS+
9. R. Omar Infante 93 OPS+

The Tigers are credited for having one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Some say it is the best, but I wouldn't go that far. I think it is top ten, but number one. Anchored by Justin Verlander it is as follows:

1. R. Justin Verlander 2.64 ERA
2. R. Rick Porcello 4.59 ERA
3. R. Max Scherzer 3.47 ERA
4. R. Anibal Sanchez 3.86 ERA
5. L. Drew Smyly 3.99 ERA

The pitching rotation is strong and for the most part young. These five guys can match any rotation in a five game series, but the bullpen is a bit messy. Jose Valverde seems to be departing Detroit to find a new home. He had a terrible season and the Tigers have faith in young pitching prospect Bruce Rondon. They think the flame throwing right hander can handle the ninth inning in the big league. Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, and Joaquin Benoit hold down the late innings in Detroit and did a pretty good job with it 2012.

I project 93 wins in 2013 for the Tigers












Let There Be Baseball!

It has been a very busy off season. Many players have new homes and many players are a lot richer. Unfortunately I couldn't cover all the news this off season.

 One of the major headlines was the wellness clinic in Miami. Some of baseball's biggest names were connected to the clinic. The reason why it is such a big deal is because they are being accused of PED usage. Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli, Jesus Montero, and Jhonny Peralta were a few of the names in the reports.

I hope you have been following the latest updates with the MLB Trade Rumors link on the right hand side of the page. Empires are forming in baseball and they are often on top of it.

Soon enough I will be making posts about each team and what they will need to do this season with projected lineups and pitching rotations. Then after all of that my MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, standings, and World Series Predictions.


Friday, December 14, 2012

Reel in the Big Fish

So some crazy stuff has went down in baseball. Trades, free agent signing, etc. Lets start covering all of it.

The Giants resigned center fielder Angel Pagan to a 4 year $40 MM deal. A good move for San Francisco to keep a popular player.

The Texas Rangers sign right handed relief pitcher Joakim Soria to a 2 year $8 MM deal. They lost a lot this off season, so maybe a good bullpen arm will help the Rangers out.

A big surprise came from the Nationals signing starting pitcher Dan Haren to a 1 year $13 MM deal. Haren is a great pitcher coming off a sub par year. Haren in undoubtedly better than Edwin Jackson, and I think Haren is one of the most under rated pitchers in the MLB. He joins the strongest rotation in the MLB with Strausburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmerman.

The Red Sox signed switch hitting outfielder Shane Victorino for 3 years $37 MM. Some say that Victorino signing with the Red Sox may be a sign that they are trying to move Ellsbury. It would be a stupid decision to move Ellsbury. He has a great combo of speed and power. If anything, see how far into the season you get, then trade him.

The San Francisco Giants strike again by signing Post Season hero Marco Scuttaro to a 3 year $20 MM deal. He will man second base and is also a fan favorite in San Francisco. A good move for the Giants.

The White Sox signed infielder Jeff Keppinger to a 3 year $12 MM contract. He is coming off a year where he hit .325/ .367 /.439 in 418 plate appearances for the Tampa Bay Rays. Probably an  improvement over Kevin Youkilis.

The Cardinals signed left handed reliever Randy Choate to a 3 year $7.5 MM deal.

The Angels signed left handed reliever Sean Burnett to a 2 year $8 MM deal. A good pick up for the Angels.

The Phillies traded pitcher Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Twins for center fielder Ben Revere. The speed demon will be a good fit in Philly. He is good on defense and can hit for average. The downside, he has yet to hit a home run at the MLB. The Twins acquire two young starters who have bright futures.

The Red Sox continued the free agent shopping by Signing Koji Uehara to a 1 year $4.25 MM deal. He will be good at the end of games along side Andrew Bailey, the closer.

The Diamond Backs signed starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy to a 2 year $15.5 MM deal. McCarthy took a line drive to the head in the regular season and had to have season ending brain surgery. He is fine now and has reportedly began to throw again. He posted a 3.24 ERA in 2012 and really should have gotten more attention this off season.

The Phillies worked another trade out, this time with the Texas Rangers. They acquired infielder Michael Young in exchange for Josh Lindbolm and a minor league player. The Rangers are eating $10 MM of the $16 MM owed to Young. The Rangers really have been mistreating a player that has been with the franchise for so long. I believe that is why Young was willing to waive his no trade clause.

One of the Big Fish, Zack Geinke signed the largest contract ever for a pitcher with the Los Angeles Dodgers. A 6 year $147 MM contract will be paid out the Greinke who will join a rotation with Clayton Kershaw and Josh Beckett. Lets see if Greinke lives up to the contract.

The Cleveland Indians signed 1B/3B Mark Reynolds to a 1 year $6 MM contact. The power hitter will most likely play first base most of the season.

The Royals acquired starting pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis in exchange for super outfield prospect Wil Myers, starting pitcher Mike Montgomery, pitcher Jake Odorozzi, and third baseman Patrick Leonard. The Royals' rotation is beginning to look very respectable. James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, and Bruce Chen can contend in the AL Central.

The Pirates resigned relief pitcher Jason Grilli to a 2 year $6.75 MM deal. Grilli posted a 2.91 ERA from 2011-2012. He is a good set up man for closer Joel Hanrahan.

The Dodgers also agreed to sign left handed Korean super star Ryu. He signed for 6 years $36 MM. He is untested, but will be pitching in a big park with good defenders.

The Twins signed starting pitcher Kevin Correia to a 2 year $10 MM contract. With Correia, who posted a 4.21 ERA in 2012, the Twins' rotation is looking respectable for seasons to come.

The Royals lost Joakim Soria, but signed George Sherril and Dan Wheeler to minor league deals. Both are question marks, but could be a good addition to the bullpen for the Royals.

Kevin Youkilis joined the dark side according to many Red Sox fans. The Yankees signed the third baseman to a 1 year $12 MM contract. He will be filling in the injured Alex Rodriguez, who is having hip surgery in the near future.

The Reds acquired Shin-Soo Choo in a three team trade with the Diamond Backs and the Indians. Super pitching prospect Trevor Bauer will go to the Indians in exchange for a bundle of prospects. Choo is going to play center field for the Reds. I don't think he is a center fielder, but we'll see how this works out.

The Dodgers traded for second baseman Skip Schumaker in exchanged for a short stop prospect. He will join the stacked Dodger lineup.

The Yankees signed fan favorite Ichiro Suzuki to a 2 year $13 MM deal. Ichiro really wanted to return to the Yankees and rejected a greater deal from the Phillies. Depending on what the Yankees do in trades and the free agent market, Ichiro will play right field.

The biggest surprise of the off season, the other Big Fish, Josh Hamilton signed with the Angels for a mega deal for 5 years $125 MM. The Angels are stacked, they have 20 year old super star Mike Trout, multi-time MVP Albert Pujols, homer happy Mark Trumbo, powerful Kendrys Morales and now Josh Hamilton. Expect the Angels to not have a repeat of last season, especially with a deflated Rangers ball club.

The Red Sox signed starting pitcher Ryan Dempster to a 2 year $26.5 MM contract. He is a good fit in Boston. He is the starting pitcher they need along side Jon Lester, the Red Sox are back in it for 2013.

The Tigers resigned Anibal Sanchez to a 5 year $80 MM deal. He went into the off season seeking a 4 year $60 MM deal, but I guess the Tigers really wanted him. He is a good pitcher and still young. The Tigers will be contending with the Royals in 2013.




Monday, December 3, 2012

Winter Meetings

The Winter Meetings have begun, but before all of that action there was some other action.

The Pirates sign catcher Russell Martin to a 2 year $17 Million contract. He will be a good fit there, becuase he can change a pitching staff. He is great defensively and can hit for power.

The Yankees lost Martin, but resigned Mariano Rivera. The deal is for $10 Million plus incentives. Rivera had a torn ACL and missed almost all of 2012. He will be back in 2013 and be a major help if Rafael Soriano signs elsewhere.

The Mets extended David Wright to a monsterous contract. The extension is worth 8 years and $138 Million. I think because of this deal the Mets will make it to the World Series at least once within the next 8 years. Wright is a leader and he is being paid to be one with this cntract. The Mets haven't had a real leader since Mike Piazza.

The Chicago Cubs signed 32 year old Japanese reliever Kyuji Fujikawa to a $9.2 Million deal over 2 years. The days of suffering through the 9th inning with Carlos Marmol are over.

The first big news of the Winter Meetings was the signing of Mike Napoli. The Red Sox signed the catcher to a 3 year $39 Million deal. He will provide some power in a deflated team.

Rumors about trades arecandidates : James Shields, Mike Morse, Justin Upton, Jeremy Hellickson, and many other less notable players are stirring up.