Boston Goes Hollywood

With the completion of the colossal trade four great players on the Red Sox will head to Los Angeles to play for the Dodgers. The Dodgers will receive right handed starting pitcher Josh Beckett, left handed hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, switch hitting utility player Nick Punto and the currently injured left handed speed demon Carl Crawford. The Dodgers will absorb $258M out of the total $270M.

Carl Crawford had Tommy John Surgery just this week and will not be able to play until next season. Crawford is clearly a long term replacement for the Dodgers' trade deadline acquisition Shane Victorino. Adrian Gonzalez is also a long term stay at first base. Gonzalez has multiple gold gloves and multiple All Star Game appearances. Beckett is having a down year with a 5.23 ERA, but his ERA over his career is 3.93 and in Dodger Stadium that will be much lower.

The Red Sox will get first baseman James Loney and a bundle of prospects. Those prospects are right handed pitcher Allen Webster, infielder Ivan De Jesus, OF/1B Jerry Sands and right handed pitcher Rubby De La Rosa. All are top prospects in the Dodgers organization.

Earlier in the season the Dodgers traded for Hanley Ramirez, Randy Choate, Brandon League, Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton. They have a great combination of power and speed in their lineup and a powerful pitching rotation.

Dee Gordon is expected back soon, so lets check out the lineup followed by the players slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG)

SS - Dee Gordon - .229/.280/.282
LF - Shane Victorino - .256/.318/.389
CF - Matt Kemp - .333/.398/ .588
1B - Adrian Gonzalez - .300/.343/.469
3B - Hanley Ramirez - .261/.331/.457
RF - Andre Ethier - .284/ .352/.453
C   -  AJ Ellis - .281/.387/.426
2B - Adam Kennedy - .261/.339/.344
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The pitching rotation followed by the pitchers' ERA

L. Clayton Kershaw 2.87 ERA
R. Chad Billingsley 3.55 ERA
L. Chris Capuano 3.38 ERA
R. Joe Blanton 5.02 ERA
R. Josh Beckett 5.23 ERA

Don't forget about the bullpen anchored by closer Kenley Jansen (1.93 ERA), Elbert (2.23 ERA), and lefty specialist Randy Choate (3.86 ERA).

The Dodgers a force to be reckoned with this season and seasons to come. While the Red Sox have offically entered rebuilding.




Thanks to Mark Sulymanov for contributing the title of this article.

Houston, We Have a Problem

A rocket may be returning to Earth. No, this isn't astronomy class. I'm talking about a possible comeback from the The Rocket, Roger Clemens. The 354 game winner recently won his court case in which he was previously charged with perjury for pleading innocent when accused of using performance enhancing drugs.

The Rocket was one of my favorite players and to be I honest I was really upset when I heard he took steroids. Well anyway he signed with an Independent League and worked out for the team. Reports say he hit 87 MPH on the radar gun. He is 50 years old a possible comeback would be fun to watch.

It was also stated that the scout for the Astros was at the workout.  If the Astros sign Clemens, he will probably come cheap and will definitively put people in their seats to see the Rocket one more time.  

Big News

Yesterday Felix Hernandez became the first Mariners pitcher to throw a perfect game and the 23rd all time. King Felix did not allow a single Ray to reach base in a 1-0 win. Hernandez struck out 12 batters in that game and was overall just masterful. His record improved to 11-5 and his ERA was lowed to 2.60 on the season. You can consider him a Cy Young Award candidate. Congrats to Felix Hernandez. Felix Hernandez is 26 years old and has won a Cy Young Award, been an All-Star multiple times, and now has pitched a perfect game. He has collected 96 wins with a struggling offense over an 8 year career with a 3.17 ERA. Most importantly Hernandez has avoided major injuries. In 2015 King Felix will be a free agent and he can expect a mega contract.

Also in the news yesterday was Melky Cabrera being suspended for 50 games. Melky tested positive for a PED (Performance Enhancing Drug.) The substance was later classified as testosrone. Melky has been a major part of the success of the Giants this season. Melky has set career highs in batting average (.346), on base percentage (.390), and slugging percentage (.516). It is a shame that players try to get around the drug testing.

You're My HIRO-ki

Hiroki Kuroda was the hero of New York City last night as he pitched a complete game shutout against the Texas Rangers. He also flirted with a no hitter through 6 innings. The Texas Rangers have been shutout only two times prior this season. Once on June 6 by Bartolo Colon and on July 14 by Felix Hernandez. The Rangers' offense is one of the most deadly in all of baseball. With big bats in the middle of lineup such as Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre and speed at the top of lineup like Elvis Andrus.

Kuroda has been a huge signing for the Yankees this season. In the off season Kuroda joined the team after signing a 1 year deal worth $10 Million. The Yankees' rotation has been struggling and injury contaminated the entire season, but Kuroda has shown he can pitch in both the American and National League. The 37 year old has a 3.06 ERA over 159 innings pitched earning him 11 wins and picking up 121 strikeouts over that span.

Kuroda was hitting in the low to mid 90's on the radar gun last night and was doing it with accuracy. He contemplated retirement in the off season, but I think he can pitch for many more years.  

Rest In Peace Johnny Pesky

At the age of 92 another beloved baseball player passes away. He served in World War II and had a successful baseball career. He was a hero on and off the field. Pesky's number is retired by the Boston Red Sox and is the only Red Sox's retired number not to be in the Hall of Fame. He wasn't just named Pesky, he was a pesky hitter. Johnny held a career .307 batting average and a .389 on base percentage over his wartime shortened 10 year career.

In Fenway Park the right field foul pole is closer than any other field due to the park's odd dimensions. That pole was named after Johnny Pesky because people who saw him play said that was the only spot he could hit a home run. In 1270 games played the infielder hit a total of 17 home runs, but made his presence seen while on the diamond.

RIP Johnny Pesky 1919-2012

You will be remembered.

MLB Trade Rumors Widget

The new addition to Hayes Craze Baseball can be seen on the right hand side of the page. For every move happening in and around major league baseball you can check the updated feed on MLB Trade Rumors.

One Third

There is only one third of the season remaining on the schedule for most teams around baseball. The wild card and division races are close and may come down to the 162nd game once again. So which players put their team in the position they are now?

The Monarchy Reins Over Detroit

The Tigers of course have ridiculous amounts of production from Miguel Cabrera (.326 AVG,  29 HR, .592 SLG, 95 RBI) and Prince Fielder (.310 AVG, 19 HR, .514 SLG, 80 RBI), but the reason for their success has been Austin Jackson. The lead off batter has a .405 on base percentage and is 10/15 in stolen base attempts this season. If Jackson wasn't on base. The King Cabrera and Prince Fielder combo would all be solo homers.  

The Angels have the most dangerous core group of players in the MLB. In the rotation Jered Weaver, CJ Wilson and Zack Greinke are a force to be reckoned with. In the lineup Mike Trout (.346 AVG, 20 HR, .601 SLG, 60 RBI, 36/39 SB), Mark Trumbo (.289 AVG, 28 HR, .568 SLG, 72 RBI), and Albert Pujols (.285 AVG, 24 HR, .527 SLG, 76 RBI). The Angels are getting a lot of production from the rotation and the lineup if they can keep it up in the final third they will make the playoffs.

The Nationals have been heavily relying on pitching. Strasburg (2.97 ERA), Zimmerman (2.45 ERA), Gonzalez (3.34 ERA), Jackson (3.56) and Detwiler (2.99 ERA) anchor the team. The key to this team is to be successful after Strasburg is shut down. Strasburg is just 40 innings away from his innings limit. When he is shut down how will that effect the rest of the rotation? The Nationals might give some way to the Braves.

Batting Average

We have passed the days when a guy can hit .400 in a season, but high batting averages are still present. In 2012 the highest batting averages are .369 by Andrew McCutchen, .354 by Melky Cabrera, and .348 by Mike Trout.

A lot of people today think on base percentage is more important that batting average and in some ways it is. If a guy is on base more often than the average player his team has a better chance of scoring a run than the other team. But if a player gets hits instead of walks, runs are more likely to score, because runners on base can advance more than one base at a time. The top on base percentages are .465 by Joey Votto, .429 by Andrew McCutchen, and .420 by David Wright.

A player with a high on base percentage but a generally low batting average can be valuable as a lead off hitter, while a player with a high batting average but low on base percentage can be more valuable as a number three hitter.

The general threshold between a good and an excellent batting average is .300. So far this season there are 27 players with a batting average of .300 or greater. In 2011 there was only 25 players over the threshold, in 2010 just 23, but in 2009 there were 42 players with a .300 or greater batting average. The reason for the sudden drop in contact hitters? A new era of the pitcher.    

This season there are 44 starting pitchers with a batting average against of just .250. That means they are allowing just one hit per inning pitched. In 2011 the number of starting pitchers with a batting average against lower than .250 was 42. In 2010 it was 45 and in 2009 it was just 33.

Over the past 3 seasons the shift between hitting an pitching has changed. The pitchers dominate the game and won't allow as many hits as they used to. With a new age of lights out relievers hits are less likely to come late in ball games. You can bet that the players with a .300+ batting average next year will be lower.

Ted Williams vs Aroldis Chapman

It would most certainly be a historic at bat. A dominant flame throwing left handed pitcher from Cuba vs the left handed hitting American War hero Ted Williams.

Ted Williams played from 1939-1960, but had to sacrifice the prime of his career to fight in World War II. Williams held a career batting average of .344 and hit .406 in 1941. With over 2600 hits in his career Ted Williams is considered one of the best players ever. The picture to the left is a display at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. It displays the batting average of Ted Williams if a pitch is thrown in a specific location. Click on the photo to enlarge it to see the numbers better. Ted Williams worst location is down and in at .230. National's outfielder Rick Ankiel has an overall batting average of .228 in 2012 and is getting paid $1.25 Million. You can now put into perspective how valuable Ted Williams would be today.

Aroldis Chapman is only in the third year of his Major League career. His fastball has clocked in at 106 miles per hour and on average is over 100 miles per hour. The video to the above explains why he throws so hard and is so dominant. 88% of the time his blistering fast ball is going to come over the plate. Against left handed hitter Aroldis Chapman's fast ball lands most often in the upper right hand quadrant of the strike zone. Now Chapman also throws his slider 12% of the time you must take that into consideration. The slider wasn't use very much in the 1940's, but is virtually used by every pitcher today. I'll handicap the experiments and use only Chapman's fast ball in the at bats.

This season against Chapman left handed batters have a .109 batting average against him. In 1941 they didn't keep statistics for batting average against left handed pitching, but Ted Williams had success against 1941 all star left hander Thorton Lee. I don't think Williams was neutralized by left handed pitching.  Chapman is still dominate vs all batters with an over .126 batting average against.

In 1976 the fastest pitch ever record was clocked at 100.0 miles per hour by J.C. Richard. So until 1976 there had never been a pitch faster than 100 miles per hour. It's safe to say that Ted Williams never faced a pitcher throwing that hard in 1941. Ted Williams did face pitchers who doctored the baseball (Using illegal substances to enhance the pitch.)

There are so many intangibles and unavailable statistics involved in this experiment. Its safe to say it is close to impossible to determine if in four at bats Aroldis Chapman can get Ted Williams, but I am not going to leave you without giving you a number. In 1941 Ted Williams was on track to get 406 hits in 1,000 at bats, so his chances of getting a hit can be represented by the fraction 406/1,000. So far in 2012 Aroldis Chapman gives up a hit 126 times out of 1000 at bats. That can be represented by the fraction 126/1000. By multiplying the two fractions together you can get the probability of a hit in one at bat. This results in 51,156/1,000,000. This can be represented as 5.1%.

In one at bat against Aroldis Chapman Ted Williams will have a 5.1% chance of getting a hit, but the bet was in 4 at bats. In 4 at bats the percentage increases to 20.4%, but in 19 at bats the percentage increases to 96.9%. In 8 at bats the percentage would be 40.8% and his batting average in 1941 was 40.6%.

To put this in perspective in 4 at bats Ted Williams will have a 20.4% chance of getting a hit. In 20 at bats it is safe to say he will defiantly have a hit. Remember there are a lot of intangibles and unavailable statistics. Vote in the poll to your left on whether you think the same of differently

Brotherly Love

The City of Brotherly Love made another move yesterday. Starting pitcher Joe Blanton was traded to the Dodgers for cash or a player to be named later. The Dodgers missed on trading for Ryan Dempster, so they downgraded a bit and got Joe Blanton. Blanton hasn't been terrible in 2012, holding a 4.59 ERA over 133.1 innings pitched. The Dodgers also claimed Cliff Lee off of waivers. The Phillies will have to withdraw Lee from waivers or he and his contract will be taken by the Dodgers.

Another story about brotherly love involves two brothers in baseball. Both Justin and BJ Upton hit a home run last night. Their homers were significant because for both of them it was the 100th of their career. Justin Upton plays for the Arizona Diamondbacks and is 24 years old. BJ Upton plays for the Tampa Bay Rays and is 27 years old. What a coincidence that two bothers playing for different teams will hit their 100th home run on the same day. Congrats to both of them.