Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Ichiro

Ichiro is one of baseball's hitting machines he recorded over 200 hits in his first 10 major league seasons. In 2011 baseball fans were shocked by Ichiro's sudden decline. his batting average dropped from his career average of .326 to .272. It was the first time the all-star hit below .300.

It turns out Ichiro hasn't lost any of talent, he just isn't lucky. In 2004 Ichiro had a batting average of .372 with a walk rate of 6.4%, a strikeout rate of 8.3% and a ground ball rate if 63.7%. His BABIP was .399 for that season. In 2011 Ichiro had a .272 batting average, he had a 5.4% walk rate, a 9.6% strikeout rate, and a 59.9% ground ball rate. His BABIP for 2011 was .295.

The difference between his best and worst seasons is only a 1.0% walk rate, a 1.3% strikeout rate, and 3.8% ground ball rate. He is doing the same thing he was doing in 2004. The only major difference is BABIP a .104 difference from 2004 and 2011. BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play. Ichiro simply was not getting lucky with his hits. Perhaps the defensive abilities of infielders have increased since 2004 or maybe Ichiro has become slightly slower with time and can't beat out infield singles.

In 2012 Ichiro has the same chance he always does to be amazing,  he just wasn't lucky in 2011. In 2004 he was extremely lucky. Baseball is one of those games where anything can happen so don't count him out yet.

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