Monday, February 11, 2013

San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers

I will be evaluating teams in pairs or trios and I thought the first two should be the National League and American League champions respectively.

The San Francisco Giants put together their team of oddballs every year and they are usually underrated. A major factor of their winning formula is team chemistry. With the addition of Hunter Pence this past season that chemistry has sky rocketed. He was a major reason why they won the World Series.

Playing in one of the most beautiful and largest ballparks in baseball the Giants have one of the best pitching rotations in baseball. The key to their success has always been suppressing the other team. They can't win if they can't score.

Tim Lincecum had the most horrendous season of his career. With a 5.18 ERA in one of the largest ballparks his ERA+ was just 67. That is well below average. In the playoffs he was pushed into the bullpen and ended up being a difference maker. I expect that Lincecum and the Giants have worked this off season and will continue to work on fixing whatever the problem is. I expect Lincecum to have a bounce back season, but if he does not I expect the Giants to put him into the bullpen. The rest of the rotation looks as such:

R. Matt Cain: 2.79 ERA
L. Madison Bumgarner: 3.37 ERA
R. Ryan Vogelsong: 3.37 ERA
R. Tim Lincecum 5.18 ERA
L. Barry Zito: 4.15 ERA

The Giants' lineup was anchored by National League MVP, Buster Posey. Full of characters that the fans love the Giants' lineup is both productive and entertaining. I will be using OPS+ which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage fixed to compare the player to league average and the ballpark he plays in.

1. S. Angel Pagan 121 OPS+
2. R. Marco Scuttaro 99 OPS+
3. S. Pablo Sandoval 124 OPS+
4. R. Buster Posey 172 OPS+
5. R. Hunter Pence 103 OPS+
6. L. Brandon Belt 124 OPS+
7. L Gregor Blonco 95 OPS+
8. L. Brandon Crawford 85 OPS+

The bullpen for the Giants is held down by Sergio Romo, Santiago Cassilla, and Jeremy Afeldt. Brian Wilson may return to the Giants in 2013 if he is willing to take on a lesser salary.

I project 94 wins for the Giants in 2013

The Detroit Tigers became World Series favorites when they signed Prince Fielder last year, but now they are even stronger than before. They will get Victor Martinez back as their every day designated hitter, Torii Hunter as their right fielder, Omar Infante as their second baseman, and Anibal Sanchez as their number four starter.

The American League triple crown winner and MVP will man third base for the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera is a force to be reckoned with. Now he is in an even more protected lineup. The sky is the limit for the numbers he may put up. Here is how the Tigers lineup may look in 2013:

1. R. Austin Jackson 130 OPS+
2. R. Torii Hunter 132 OPS+
3. R. Miguel Cabrera 165 OPS+
4. L. Prince Fielder 152 OPS+
5. S. Victor Martinez  131 OPS+* 2011
6. R. Alex Avila 100 OPS+
7. R. Jhonny Peralta 85 OPS+
8. L. Brennan Boesch 77 OPS+
9. R. Omar Infante 93 OPS+

The Tigers are credited for having one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Some say it is the best, but I wouldn't go that far. I think it is top ten, but number one. Anchored by Justin Verlander it is as follows:

1. R. Justin Verlander 2.64 ERA
2. R. Rick Porcello 4.59 ERA
3. R. Max Scherzer 3.47 ERA
4. R. Anibal Sanchez 3.86 ERA
5. L. Drew Smyly 3.99 ERA

The pitching rotation is strong and for the most part young. These five guys can match any rotation in a five game series, but the bullpen is a bit messy. Jose Valverde seems to be departing Detroit to find a new home. He had a terrible season and the Tigers have faith in young pitching prospect Bruce Rondon. They think the flame throwing right hander can handle the ninth inning in the big league. Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, and Joaquin Benoit hold down the late innings in Detroit and did a pretty good job with it 2012.

I project 93 wins in 2013 for the Tigers












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