So recently I've been expanding my statistic Pitching Performance Value. So whats the average value of a start. The average amount of innings pitched from a starter is 6.0 so that means they recorded 18 outs. Also the average ERA in the major leagues is 3.94. That means over 9 innings a pitcher would give up 3.94 earned runs. That turns out to be 2.63 earned runs over 6 innings. Additionally the average whip for a pitcher is 1.32, so tha means over 6 innings pitched 7.92 base runners will reach base. Finally the average OPS of a hitter is .720. So do a quick calculation the average Pitching Performance Value is 62.22. Anything above 62.22 PPV from a pitcher's start would be above average. If a pitcher consistently gets PPV's above 62.22 he is considerably better than the average pitcher.
Coming soon: A way to adjust PPV for the ballpark the pitcher is in.
Showing posts with label PPV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PPV. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Some of The Statistics I Use Explained
ERA+:
ERA+ is a comparison of a pitcher's ERA to league average. In 2011 league average in The American League was 4.08 and average in the National League was 3.81. In the statistic ERA+ 100 is used as average and the percentage that the pitcher's ERA is better is added to 100. So if Roy Halladay had an ERA of 2.35 and League average was 3.81 his ERA+ would be 163. He is 63% better than league average.
OPS+:
OPS+ is also a comparison stat, but used to evaluate batters. In 2011 league average in the American League and National League was .730 and .710 respectively. 100 is also used as average and the difference between OPS+ and 100 is the percentage of players they are better than. Remember that OPS is on base plus slugging percentage. Miguel Cabrera had an OPS of 1.033. So his OPS+ is 181. He is 81% better than the average hitter.
Ground Ball Percentage:
For a pitcher getting batters to hit ground balls is great. They are more likely to hit into double plays and you don't risk the extra base hit. Basically you are more likely to get the out on a ground ball than a fly ball. In 2011 CC Sabathia had a GB% of 46.6%; which is great. Almost half of the hitters he faced are hitting ground balls. Sabathia also plays a lot of his games in Yankee Stadium where fly balls
could hurt you a lot.
Fly Ball Percentage:
Fly Ball percentage is the ratio of fly balls hit to at bats. You want to hit fly balls as a hitter, they are more likely to score a run and get on base. Prince Fielder had a fly ball percentage of 37.1% in 2011. He was hitting a fly ball in more than one out of 3 at bats. If there is a runner on third and one out an opposing team may consider walking Fielder, because he could hit a fly ball to score the run.
Pitcher Performence Value:
A pitcher's performance can change by the team he faces and many other factors. A simple evaluation of a game is ERA before the game divided by the average OPS of the players he got out. If a pitcher gets out great batters but has an average ERA he is better than a pitcher who has an above average ERA and gets out mediocre batters. PPV = ERA/ AOPS
Run Production Probability:
What are the chances of a batter scoring a run in the inning he comes up to the plate? (R + RBI's - HR) / PA.
If Curtis Granderson were to come up to the plate in the third innings he would have about a 32% of scoring a run in that inning. Since a player gets about 4 at bats in a game the chances that Curtis Granderson will produce a run in that game are very likely, making him valuable to an offense.
ERA+ is a comparison of a pitcher's ERA to league average. In 2011 league average in The American League was 4.08 and average in the National League was 3.81. In the statistic ERA+ 100 is used as average and the percentage that the pitcher's ERA is better is added to 100. So if Roy Halladay had an ERA of 2.35 and League average was 3.81 his ERA+ would be 163. He is 63% better than league average.
OPS+ is also a comparison stat, but used to evaluate batters. In 2011 league average in the American League and National League was .730 and .710 respectively. 100 is also used as average and the difference between OPS+ and 100 is the percentage of players they are better than. Remember that OPS is on base plus slugging percentage. Miguel Cabrera had an OPS of 1.033. So his OPS+ is 181. He is 81% better than the average hitter.
Ground Ball Percentage:
For a pitcher getting batters to hit ground balls is great. They are more likely to hit into double plays and you don't risk the extra base hit. Basically you are more likely to get the out on a ground ball than a fly ball. In 2011 CC Sabathia had a GB% of 46.6%; which is great. Almost half of the hitters he faced are hitting ground balls. Sabathia also plays a lot of his games in Yankee Stadium where fly balls
could hurt you a lot.
Fly Ball Percentage:
Fly Ball percentage is the ratio of fly balls hit to at bats. You want to hit fly balls as a hitter, they are more likely to score a run and get on base. Prince Fielder had a fly ball percentage of 37.1% in 2011. He was hitting a fly ball in more than one out of 3 at bats. If there is a runner on third and one out an opposing team may consider walking Fielder, because he could hit a fly ball to score the run.
A pitcher's performance can change by the team he faces and many other factors. A simple evaluation of a game is ERA before the game divided by the average OPS of the players he got out. If a pitcher gets out great batters but has an average ERA he is better than a pitcher who has an above average ERA and gets out mediocre batters. PPV = ERA/ AOPS
Run Production Probability:
What are the chances of a batter scoring a run in the inning he comes up to the plate? (R + RBI's - HR) / PA.
If Curtis Granderson were to come up to the plate in the third innings he would have about a 32% of scoring a run in that inning. Since a player gets about 4 at bats in a game the chances that Curtis Granderson will produce a run in that game are very likely, making him valuable to an offense.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Pitching Performance Value
How do you truly identify how well a pitcher performed? Looking at his ERA+, WHIP or his K/9 rate may be misleading. What if a set up man comes into the game and gets out 3 great hitters and then the closer comes in and gets out 3 mediocre hitters. Their performances look the same on paper, but they actually aren't. The set up man had to work harder to get the outs and those outs held more significance.
I would like to establish a statistic that shows this. This one is very simple: it is just a ratio of ERA to the average OPS of the hitters faced. It will look something like this: PPV = ERA/ AOPS.
On September 25, 2011 The Yankees played The Red Sox in a double header they lost in extra innings in one game and won the other. In the first game David Robertson pitched four outs and faced David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia. He struck out Ellsbury, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Crawford flew out. Mariano Rivera pitched in the second game and he faced Jarrod Saltalamacchia, JD Drew, Marco Scutaro, Mike Aviles, and Adrian Gonzalez. He got out Saltalamacchia, Drew and Aviles.
I chose September 25, 2011 because it was close to the end of the season and their stats were close to complete. The OPS of the opposing players should be taken on the day of the performance, because hot and cold streaks do exist. Although some people believe hot and cold streaks do not exist, they do. You need to know how well the batter was doing up to that day. A batter could hit 5 home runs in one week and then 0 for an entire month.
So Robertson got out Ellsbury (.928 OPS), Ortiz (.953 OPS), Gonzalez (.957 OPS), and Crawford (.694 OPS). Robertsons ERA was 1.08. So the stat would be set up as PPV = 1.08 / ((.928 + .953 + .957 + .694) / 4). That turns out to be 1.22. The lower the number the better. Marinao River had an ERA of 1.91 and he got out Saltalamacchia (.737 OPS), Drew (.617 OPS), and Aviles (.775 OPS). 1.91 / ((.737 + .617 + .775) / 3) = 2.69
Robertson performed better than Rivera on September 25, 2011. I know they didn't pitch in the same game, but the batters they faced are the main reason. You can use this stat to evaluate a pitchers performance on any day, as long as you use the batters OPS for that day. It also works for starting pitchers, but there will be a lot more numbers to average.
I would like to establish a statistic that shows this. This one is very simple: it is just a ratio of ERA to the average OPS of the hitters faced. It will look something like this: PPV = ERA/ AOPS.
On September 25, 2011 The Yankees played The Red Sox in a double header they lost in extra innings in one game and won the other. In the first game David Robertson pitched four outs and faced David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia. He struck out Ellsbury, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Crawford flew out. Mariano Rivera pitched in the second game and he faced Jarrod Saltalamacchia, JD Drew, Marco Scutaro, Mike Aviles, and Adrian Gonzalez. He got out Saltalamacchia, Drew and Aviles.I chose September 25, 2011 because it was close to the end of the season and their stats were close to complete. The OPS of the opposing players should be taken on the day of the performance, because hot and cold streaks do exist. Although some people believe hot and cold streaks do not exist, they do. You need to know how well the batter was doing up to that day. A batter could hit 5 home runs in one week and then 0 for an entire month.
So Robertson got out Ellsbury (.928 OPS), Ortiz (.953 OPS), Gonzalez (.957 OPS), and Crawford (.694 OPS). Robertsons ERA was 1.08. So the stat would be set up as PPV = 1.08 / ((.928 + .953 + .957 + .694) / 4). That turns out to be 1.22. The lower the number the better. Marinao River had an ERA of 1.91 and he got out Saltalamacchia (.737 OPS), Drew (.617 OPS), and Aviles (.775 OPS). 1.91 / ((.737 + .617 + .775) / 3) = 2.69
Robertson performed better than Rivera on September 25, 2011. I know they didn't pitch in the same game, but the batters they faced are the main reason. You can use this stat to evaluate a pitchers performance on any day, as long as you use the batters OPS for that day. It also works for starting pitchers, but there will be a lot more numbers to average.
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