Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Ellsbury, Morneau, Saltalamacchia Sign. Fowler, Gentry, Lindblom, Bell, Smith Gregerson Traded

Jacoby Ellsbury in his new uniform
The biggest news of yesterday's busy day was the signing of Jacoby Ellsbury. The New York Yankees signed the All Star Jacoby Ellsbury to a colossal 7 year $148 Million deal. Ellsbury will join an outfield with Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki probably making the best defensive outfield in the MLB. Ellsbury has had some fluctuation in his stats from year to year, but he has been someone consistent. He has put up a .297/.350/.439 slashline for his career, and has one dominating season under his belt. Ellsbury has led the league in stolen bases 3 seasons and has a 162 game average of 55 stolen bases. With an average annual war of 3.9 and assigning $5 Million to each win above replacement Ellsbury seems to be worth the deal. Johnny Damon is a similar player to make the transition from the Red Sox to the Yankkes via free agency, and he saw some success. Damon's average home run totals increased from 14 to 19.25 per season. That is a 37.5% increase. If the same can be said for Ellsbury, who has an average home run total of 15 home runs per season, you can expect him to hit about 20 home runs a year in Yankee Stadium. Combined with his speed and defense, Ellsbury will be an impact player for the Yankees, although his signing most likely takes them out of competition for Cano.

Justin Morneau
In the wake of Todd Helton's retirement the Rockies signed slugging first baseman Justin Morneau to a 2 year $13 Million deal. Morneau was traded to the Pirates mid season and was a big help for getting them to the post season. He hit 17 home runs last year playing most of his games in the spacious Target Field, and has a career average of 22 home runs per season.   Morneau is still relativley young at 32, but has battled some injuries the past few seasons, only playing 150 games total between 2010 and 2011. The Canadian born Morneau will slot in very nicely in the Rockies lineup which is projected to be Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, Morneau, Cuddyer, for a 3-6. The home run numbers are expected to rise for Morneau playing in Coors field.

It was reported that the Rays acquired Ryan Hannigan in a trade yesterday, but that turned out to be a 3 team with Heath Bell also headed to the Rays. Hannigan had a down year in 2012 with his batting average not cracking .200. Heath Bell will play for his 4th team in 4 years after what could be called a bounce back season. His ERA dropped from 5.09 to 4.11 after going from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks. With the signing of Juan Oviedo and the trade to acquire Heath Bell, the chances of Fernando Rodney returning to the Rays are bleak.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The Miami Marlins signed free agent catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a 3 year $21 Million deal. Salty has been pretty productive for ta catcher during his time playing for the Red Sox. In 3 full seasons in Boston the backstop put together an OPS+ of 104 over those 3 seasons. His slashline of .244/.306/.437 slashline during his time in Boston is significant given his defensive capabilities. With this signing I think the Marlins are up to something especially with their reluctance to trade Giancarlo Stanton. Watch out for the Marlins in the trade market and the free agent market as they may be flying under the radar.

After trading Jemile Weeks for Jim Johnson the Athletics made another move by trading for outfielder Craig Gentry and right handed reliever Josh Lindbolm. With the departure of Chris B. Young the Athletics were in search for an outfielder and they went to Gentry who's game revolves and speed and batitng average. His career .280 batting average in two full seasons proves Gentry's capabilities. Lindbolm's ERA has steadily been climbing but the ballpark he has been playing in has steadily been getting smaller. Going from Dodger Stadium to Citizens Bank Park to Rangers Ballpark his ERA went from 2.73 in 2011 to 5.46 in 2013. Lindbolm's ERA will resort back to around 3.00 as he moves to the spacious Oakland Coliseum.

Luke Gregerson
The Athletics further added to their bullpen after getting both Lindbolm and Johnson by trading outfielder Seth Smith for right hander Luke Gregerson of the San Diego Padres.  Smith hovers around a .265 batting avage with an on base percentage .100 points higher. He gets on base, and hits for average power with an average of 14 home runs per season. Gregerson has been an extremely effective and healthy reliever in San Diego the first 5 years of his career by pitching 347 innings and holding a 2.88 ERA in his career and a 2.60 ERA in the past 3 seasons. The Athletics are seriously building an effective bullpen, possibly soon to be the best in baseball.

The Houston Astros made their first splash of the off season by trading for center fielder Dexter Fowler from the Rockies in exchange for pitcher Jordan Lyl
Dexter Fowler
es and outfielder Brandon Barnes. In his first 5 full seasons Fowler has a 103 OPS+ with an on base percentage of .367 staying consistent by year. He swipes an average of 17 stolen bases and hits an average of 7 home runs, which is pretty good for a lead off hitter. Fowler will set the table well for the Astros with Jose Altuve following him.  Lyles hasn't found much success with his consistent ERA over 5 in his first 3 seasons, which is mot expected to go down in Colorado where ERAs tend to inflate. Brandon Barnes will be 28 in 2014 and has also not found much success in his first full season. He hit 8 home runs with a .289 on base percentageand a 50% stolen base percentage. This trade was probably done to free up salary so I expect the Rockies to make another move either for a starting pitcher or an outfielder.

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