Pitching Performance Value

As you know by now I like to assign one number to an entire performance. For a pitcher we usually look at how many runs he allowed and how many innings he pitched. Now there will be one value to evaluate a pitcher's performance on a given day and compare it to other pitching performances.

How would you classify a great start? I would say many innings pitched and as few walks, hits, and runs as possible. This isn't always a clear indication of how a pitcher did. If a pitcher throws 5 shutout innings against the Texas Rangers, it is a much bigger accomplishment than 5 shutout innings against the Houston Astros. How do you measure how good an offense is you ask? You gather all the players the pitcher got out and average their OPS on that day. The higher the OPS of a hitter the more dangerous he is and getting him out holds much more significance than a guy who has a low OPS.

PPV =            (Recorded Outs)           
            ((Hits + Walks) x Earned Runs)     X (average of opponents OPS whom recorded an out)

Then Multiply the value times 100 to get a more accurate value.
                 

Now there is one rule to this statistic. That is if the pitcher allowed 0 eared runs set the value for "(Earned Runs)" as 1. This is because if you cannot divide by 0. You may also be asking Where are the strikeouts. To be honest I love strikeouts, but it doesn't matter how you record the out. Also if anything a contact out would be better, because it usually uses fewer pitches.

So now lets put this to the test. Since Tim Lincecum is one of my favorite pitcher we will use him as the test subject. On April 28 Lincecum pitched  against the Padres. He allowed 3 hits, 0 runs and 4 walks.
He recorded 24 outs. They are the following hitters followed by how many outs the recorded and their OPS:

Will Venable: 2 outs .638 OPS
Jesus Guzman: 2 outs .515 OPS
Chase Headley: 2 outs .843 OPS
Nick Hundley: 2 outs .628 OPS
Yonder Alonso: 2outs .667 OPS
Orlando Hudson: 3 outs .615 OPS
Camron Maybin: 3 outs.630 OPS
Andy Parrino: 3 outs   .629 OPS
Anthony Bass: 3 outs .000 OPS

As you can see the lineup isn't very threatening.  The average OPS Lincecum got out was .509 which is relatively easy to do. With the Average OPS that recorded an out was .509 Lincecum's PPV for April 28 was 174.5. That is pretty good, but lets say the average OPS of the people who recorded an out was .700. His PPV would be 240 a significantly better value. Remember that if the pitcher gives up 0 hits or walks or 0 runs the value for the bottom of the equation is set at 1.

This stat can also be used to evaluate relief pitchers, but you should categorize them differently, because the ratio of batters faced to hits and walks given up is the same, but should not be weighted as the same.