Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Relief Pitcher's Clutch

We all know those really tough situations in the ball game. Bases loaded, no outs, and the opponents slugger is at bat. Who do you want to get you out of this jam? The guy in your bullpen with the most clutch. Up to now there hasn't been a reliable statistic to measure a pitchers clutch to my knowledge. Well I have developed one. I call this statistic RPC standing for Relief Pitcher's Clutch.

If your in a tough part of a game, you want a strike out, this is what relief pitchers are inevitably known for. In this statistic strikeouts will work at a pitchers advantage. Runs and an elevated whip (walks and hits per innings pitcher) will work at the pitcher's disadvantage. In an important game where the score is close and there are runners on base, you do not want runs to score, nor do you want to add additional runners on base.

To explain why the strikeout is important. If you get a strikeout you are obviously not getting a different kind of out, ground out, fly out, pop out etc. A 'contact out' may result in a run scoring and there is always a chance of the fielder dropping it or committing an error. This is why strikeouts would work at the relief pitcher's advantage in the statistic.

Finally to reveal the statistic: RPC = (Strikeouts / Runs) / (Walks and hits per innings pitched)
                                           RPC = (K/R) / (Whip)
                                           * The higher the number the better the pitcher's clutch

Now you check the math. What if the Runs or Whip is equal to 0. In the case of Runs be 0 the RPC is infinity. In the statistic for earned run average, if a pitcher gives up a run with 0 innings pitched, his ERA would be INF.  Getting back to RPC, if a pitcher's RPC is infinity he is currently 100% clutch, because he has not allowed a run to score. If the whip is 0 the player currently doesn't qualify for the statistic, because he could have given up a run without giving up a hit. If Both Whip and Runs are 0 then the RPC is infinity.

To look at some examples. David Robertson is notorious for getting out of big jams. He has 100 strikeouts, 9 runs, and a 1.125 whip. This gives him a 9.88 RPC. among the highest for 2011, earning him the name Houdini.

Dennis Eckersley's 1990 season 73 strikeouts, 9 runs, and a 0.614 whip giving him a  13.21 RPC, one of the best all time.

Now you may say RPC is directly proportional to ERA. Not always. Tyler Clippard of the Washington Nationals, and Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees have very similar ERA's 1.83 and 1.91, respectively. That is just a 0.08 point difference, barely anything, or noticeable, but Clippard's high amount of strikeouts (104) makes him much more clutch. Clippards RPC is 6.89 and Rivera's is 5.14. Rivera gets more of his outs from contact, making him less clutch in a tough situation.

I believe that the clutch rating may be the end of the closer, because if you have bases loaded jam with none out in the 7th inning, wouldn't you want your best pitcher to be in the game then and not close the door with the bases empty, just cruising by.

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